저자: 미상 · 외국인
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Jeremy Grantham의 2023년 4월 메모를 소개하며, 미국 증시가 슈퍼 버블의 마지막 단계에 있고 2023년 5월경부터 대폭락이 시작될 수 있다는 전망을 전한다. 핵심 주장: 증시는 4단계 슈퍼 버블 중 2단계(급락)를 거치고 있으며, 최종 3~4단계(랠리 후 패닉·경기침체)가 남아 있다는 주장. 근거 1 - 대출/주택 버블: 미국 주택가격은 소득의 약 6배로 2006년 기록을 넘었고, 파리·상하이·밴쿠버·런던·시드니 등은 소득 대비 10~20배 수준. 호주 시드니는 10.6배 기록. 근거 2 - 호주 변동금리 전환: 2023년 약 8만 건의 고정금리 대출이 변동금리로 전환되어 월 상환액이 급증할 것으로 예상, 약 600만 건 중 13% 이상 영향. 근거 3 - 장단기 금리차: 10년물 - 3개월물 금리차 역전은 과거 50년간 8회 발생했고 모두 경기침체로 이어졌다고 언급. 목표치: 연말 S&P500 3,200pt(약 16.7% 하락), 인플레이션 감안 실질 약 20% 하락; 최악의 경우 약 50% 하락해 약 2,000pt. 2000년 닷컴 폭락(나스닥 -82%)보다 주택·채권까지 포함돼 더 심각하다고 주장. 타이밍: 대선 3년차 10월~4월 강세 구간(프레지덴셜 사이클) 종료 후 2023년 5월경부터 시장 하락 본격화. 바닥은 2023년 말~2024년 깊숙이 가능성 제기. 종목 언급: 개별 종목 언급 없음(S&P500 지수 중심). 주식 시장 전반 하락 전망. 리스크/조건: 침체 시나리오 현실화 여부, 인플레이션, 주택시장 악화에 따라 달라짐. 과거 예측이 항상 정확히 맞지는 않았음(2022년 하락 전 예측 등)을 영상이 스스로 언급. 출연자 전망: 내레이터는 어떤 크래시 예측도 회의적으로 보며 가치투자 관점을 유지한다고 밝히고, 하락을 오히려 매수 기회로 본다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Grantham the man who accurately forecasted the collapse of Japan in the late 80s the 2000.com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis is now predicting a massive stock market crash this time the focus is not on Japan nor is it rooted in the past or distant future grantham's current projection targets the United States and he's intriguingly pinpointed a specific time frame for when this potential crash may happen in this video we will give you all the details on when it may happen and why as we always do on profit protection we aim to clarify what these predictions imply for average investors in today's environment so this is a rather fascinating Theory and let's look at what he has to say in his recent memo grantha mentioned an array of factors such as the global housing market the inverted yield curve on Treasury bonds and several others which can significantly impact the stock market Grantham contends that stocks are currently experiencing a Super Bubble he pointed out that the U.S stocks have gone through four such super bubbles over the past century and further described this development process of the ongoing Super Bubble in the stock market a Super Bubble unfolds in four stages stage one involves the formation of the bubble and a surge in stock prices to unusually high levels in stage two prices undergo a significant decline typically in reaction to a political or economic event the third stage Witnesses a bullish rally in the market setting the stage for the Final Phase known as the Panic or recession stage which triggers a massive drop in the stock market according to Grantham investors experience stage two of the Super Bubble in 2022 a setback he expounded on how Rising inflation was the primary driver of stock market declines in the first half of the Year leading investors to recognize that Perfection will not last after all and valuations took a step back Grantham identifies three primary catalysts for the substantial drop in the stock market observed in 2022 the Ukraine war increasing inflation and bottlenecks in the supply slide chain of various goods and commodities however he says that none of those were the actual underlying issue Grantham explained that it is impossible to pinpoint a specific event that triggered the 2022 stock market decline and he says poly crisis May well be the word of the Year Grantham asserts that the ongoing decline in financial conditions will be kept off by a downturn in the housing market marking the final stage of the stock market bubble this could potentially Drive the S P 500 to 3200 points by year end in a worst case scenario Grantham envisions the S P 500 plummeting as much as 50 percent to around 2 000 points he emphasizes that the current situation is considerably more serious than the 2000 crash as it includes real estate and bonds which were not factors back then during the recession of 2000 the economy experienced no issues with real estate or debt markdowns but nonetheless the NASDAQ declined by 82 percent Amazon by 92 percent and the s S P 500 by 50 Grantham cautions that the current situation is not a mild setback like 2000 as it includes not only the equity Market but also the housing market and the bond market be advised this is not a gentle setback like 2000 it's bad enough just doing the equity Market in 2000 this time we have done a dead ringer for the equity Market Plus for gravy we've done the housing market and the bond market so what he's essentially saying is that he believes that the present scenario resembles the 2000 crash but with deeper consequences Grantham suggests that the current situation contains more elements that could contribute to a more significant collapse Grantham believes that the current Global housing bubble is the most important factor that may trigger a deep recession currently the real estate market is slower to respond and corporate profits remain high however Grantham believes that the housing market is also experiencing a bubble and it is only at the initial stage this will likely lead to more significant economic repercussions in 2022 we witnessed a peak in housing prices in the U.S home prices were about six times the average household income surpassing the 2006 record moreover the increase in housing prices worldwide is even more pronounced than the US in cities such as Paris Shanghai Vancouver London Sydney and Taiwan so the home price to income ratio has risen by 10 to 20 times for instance let's examine the home to price income ratio in Australia in May 2022 CoreLogic analyzed the situation and found that home prices had jumped to 8.5 times the average household income in Australia in Sydney the ratio Rose to a record-breaking 10.6 in most places mortgage rates have been steadily declining over the past 40 years allowing people to take on more debt relative to their income by taking advantage of low mortgage rates the issue arises in areas with variable mortgage rates which fluctuates with changes in interest rates when rates increase household incomes are strained by higher monthly payments for example we might see the impact of variable mortgage rates in Australia in 2023 Australian mortgages are typically fixed for two to three years and then convert to variable rates current rates are two to three times higher than the fixed rates in 2021 to 2022 and it is expected that nearly 80 000 fixed mortgage rates will convert to variable rates in 2023 with approximately 6 million mortgages in Australia this could lead to a surge of over 13 percent in outstanding mortgages experiencing significant increases in monthly payments Grantham believes that this increase in the housing market will have a ripple effect on equities High mortgage rates will put more pressure on people causing them to rely on their stock Investments for income and reduce non-essential spending Grantham argues that the housing price turmoil will impact corporate profits which he believes will be the determining factor for the stock market's Direction over the next few years so when will the big crash begin well I mean it's quite surprising because he's very specific when it comes to timing he said it's generally tough to get the market to go down between October the 1st and the end of April so he's referring to the third year of the presidential term which we are currently in it's like the short sellers graveyard then all bets are off and back to the meat grinder Grantham believes that problems with the stock market will begin to Surface after April and commence in May of 2023 this precise timing may seem peculiar or overly specific but grant them attributes it to a phenomenon known as the presidential cycle according to a recent article the presidential cycle refers to a period in a stock market that performs exceptionally well during the third year of a U.S president's term it yields an average return of around 27 percent compared to the rest of the period which averages a four percent return for six months currently we are in the favorable phase of the presidential cycle but this period ends in April the presidential cycle is simple and straightforward with the seven months from October of the second year to April of the third year outperforming the remaining 41 months of the cycle since 1932.
so two questions arise from this observation why the stocks perform so well during these months in the third presidential year and what happens after April Grantham explains in a Bloomberg interview that the president aims for a robust labor market in the six months leading up to the election to make voters feel positive just before the election however the economy is a lagging instrument so it requires time to heat up that's why the president's start stimulating the economy between October and April in the second to third year consequently boosting the stock market after this period Grantham suggests that we return to a grinder meaning that there will be no more artificial stimulation and Market forces will resume he contends that these Market forces will likely Drive the market downwards now I just want to be a bit more clear on grantham's predictions it's important to note that in his report he delves into more specific details regarding the timing likelihood of various outcomes and the impact of inflation on these forecasts he said my calculations of trendline value of the S P 500 adjusted upwards for trendline growth and for expected inflation is about 3 200 by the end of 2023 I believe it's likely three to one to reach that Trend and spend at least some time below it this year or the next not the end of the world but compared to the Goldilocks pattern of the last 20 years it's pretty brutal he goes on to say to spell it out 3200 would be a decline of just 16.7 sent for 2023 and with four percent inflation assumed for the year what total to a 20 real decline for 2023 or 40 real from the beginning of 2022 a modest overrun past 3200 would take this entire decline to say 45 to 50 percent a little less bad than the usual decline of 50 or more from previous similarly extreme levels in the worst case if something does break and the World falls into a severe recession the market could fall a stomach turning 50 from here at best there is likely to be at least a further modest decline which by no means balances the risks even the most dire case of a 50 decline from here would leave us at just under 2 000 on the S P so how long does Jeremy Grantham predict that this downturn will last for so my guess is this one will not bottom until deep into next year rather's prediction is significant as most bear markets typically bottom out seven to eight months after a recession has begun however he argued is that comparing our current market to ordinary recessions is a mistake instead he believes we should be examining it alongside historical great bubbles such as those in 1929 1973 and 2000 as well as the 2006 housing crash these super bubbles tend to take longer to collapse than ordinary Bubbles and usually experience more significant declines super bubbles generally take a couple of years or more to reach their lowest points with a few exceptions for instance the 1929 crash took three years to bottom out in 1932 the 1973 crash took about 10 to 11 months while the 2001 Tech bubble took around 15 months and the 2007 financial crisis required approximately 19 months Grantham suggests that if we conservatively estimate one year from the start of the recession to the Market's bottom and assume that a recession might not begin for another six months to a year it becomes evident that the Market's final low could extend well into 2024.
however all this information hinges on the assumption that a recession is indeed approaching while a recession pertains to the economy and the market crash concerns the stock market they are distinct Concepts although some experts argue that we are already experiencing a recession officially we have not answered one just yet grant them on the other hand believes that a recession is practically inevitable he said the most ancient and effective predictor of future recession the 10-year minus three-month yield spread is now clearly signaling recession within the next year this spread has gone negative only eight times in the past 50 years and all eight times have been followed by recessions to rub it in there have been no other recessions that is grantham's perspective on the Market's Direction over the next two years is essentially this once the presidential cycle concludes in April he anticipates the market will revert to its 2022 Behavior returning to the meat grinder as Grantham puts it but should we place a great deal of confidence in this prediction as independent investors it's essential to understand that Grantham has been flagging this bubble for quite quite some time in January of 2021 he argued that the next crash would be on par with those of 1929 and 2000 and in 2022 he referred to it as a bubble of monumental scale while the market did start to stumble and decrease in 2022 his predictions haven't always been perfectly timed this serves as a caution that is current forecast the one examined in this video might not transpire exactly as He suggests that's why I personally treat every crash prediction with a degree of skepticism regardless of the forecast I adhere to a steady investing approach value investing in fact I actually embrace Market declines as they provide something every value investor seeks lower stock prices if you're concerned about the Stock Market Outlook you don't want to miss this next video where I talk about the Ponzi like property Market in China and how a possible collapse there may affect the global economy see you there please
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