저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 시장 폭락·조정은 필연적으로 오므로 주식을 보유하되 우량주를 사고, 조정 때 매수 기회로 활용하며, 단기 자금 투자는 피해야 한다. 시장 조정의 역사: 피터 린치는 93년간 10% 이상 하락이 50회(약 2년에 1번), 25% 이상 약세장이 15회(약 6년에 1번) 있었다고 설명했다. 1987년 블랙먼데이 때 그의 펀드는 약 120억에서 80억 달러로 줄었다. 조정의 원인: 위축되는 경기, 전쟁·테러·팬데믹 같은 세계 사건, 그리고 공포 자체가 하락을 유발하는 자기실현적 예언이라고 정리했다. 조정 대응 방법: 우량 기업 주식이 하락하면 오히려 싸게 살 기회다. 14달러가 6달러로 떨어진 주식이 22달러까지 간다면 이익이 더 크다. 많은 개인투자자는 공포로 물러서지만, 버핏·달리오 같은 이들은 불황기에 종목을 연구하고 비중을 늘렸다. 경기 국면별 차이: 좋은 경기에는 대부분 주식이 오르고, 나쁜 경기에는 최고의 기업이 더 빨리 회복한다. 타이밍에 대한 입장: 린치는 조정 타이밍을 맞추려 하지 않았다. 그가 마젤란펀드를 운용한 13년간 시장은 9번 10% 이상 떨어졌지만 그는 걱정하지 않았다고 말했다. 켄 피셔의 '시장 타이밍보다 시장에 머무르는 시간이 중요하다'는 말을 인용했다. 투자 기간: 1~2년 안에 쓸 돈은 주식에 투자하면 안 되며, 장기 자금이라면 조정을 견딜 수 있다. 과거 10년·30년·130년 기준으로 주식시장이 최고의 투자처였다고 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 시장이 다시 오를 것이라는 장기 낙관론을 유지하며, 단기 방향은 예측하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
october has always been a special month i remember in 1987 i was very uh you know i was very convinced that mark was a no it was not not in trouble and i didn't worry about things and carol and i had planned this great uh golf vacation to ireland and we're gonna visit one course and save a little house and visit another go along the west coast of ireland and play golf and we left on a thursday night and the market went down 55 points that day which was not too good and the next day we got to ireland because the time difference we'd complete our day and i get back to hotel and i called in the market going down 112 on friday i said to carolyn uh you know i think if the if the mark goes down on monday uh you know we're gonna have to go back and uh and so we might as well we stayed there for the weekend and uh and on monday the market went down 580 points and my fund went from uh i think 12 billion to 8 billion and uh that gets your attention you know when uh two working days you know i said the end of this week i'd be uh have no fun we're halfway into 2022 and despite the slow and steady recovery for the pandemic the financial markets seem to be running into troubles yet again trust us you're not the only one feeling uncertain as you watch the s p slide downward with the current state of the stock market it can be a little unnerving to consider the possibility of a hard correction coming our way if you are wondering about the best way to protect your stocks and possibly even profit from an upcoming market correction this video is just for you in fact we've got some absolutely gold comments from investing legend peter lynch to guide you through these perilous times in this video we're going to expand on some of peter lynch's most valuable pieces of advice when it comes to handling market corrections you'll finish with a good grip on what causes market corrections and even better how to turn it into an opportunity for profit you'll want to stick around until the end because we include a gem of wisdom from peter about the best way to time these market corrections for maximum gains the answer is a little unexpected let's get started peter lynch is a widely respected name in the game of finance in 13 years as the manager of fidelity's magellan fund he grew the assets from 18 million dollars to a whopping 14 billion dollars this was fueled by his keen understanding of the market's nature this is clearly evident but the 29.2 annual return he averaged during his time so how did peter lynch manage to stay on top during his whole career how did his funds survive major downturns such as black monday before we get into the nitty-gritty it's important to know exactly why these receptions happen and when the next one will come peter put it perfectly history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market falls 10 percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly but we call it a correction and uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10 all those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the market's gonna have a 25 percent decline that's all you need to know you need to know the market's going to go down sometimes if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks if the market corrects itself so regularly what's actually causing it i'm going to give you the answer but it's not straightforward or clear as you might hope because the market reflects investor sentiments the rise and fall of stock prices in general is due to the supply and demand or lack thereof from investors this is the basic answer but the forces moving the supply and demands can vary greatly here are three common causes of market corrections and crashes number one a shrinking economy if the economy itself is trending downward investors do not feel as motivated to purchase shares when consumers are buying less companies do worse investors become less and less optimistic that its stock is going to go up so they hold on to their money as a result the market begins to decline number two world events this is an easy one there are plenty of examples to choose from the devastating terror attacks in 911 spread fear of war and more causing a downturn the kova 19 lockdowns slowed the economy but it took investors more than two years to become less cautious and re-enter the market russia's recent invasion of ukraine made everyone wary of war or economic collapse which slowed the market as we're seeing at the moment number three fear while fear is certainly a factor in world events almost anything can spook the market fear is a self-fulfilling prophecy so investors become afraid of a market correction that fear itself fuels a downturn when investors become fearful enough to drive down prices the rest of the crowd follows and a recession begins rearing its ugly head those three causes are very prevalent regardless of your time in the market as an investor you've seen one or all of these come into play corrections and recessions can be triggered by a variety of events but the important thing is that you know how to handle them let's look at the moves you should be ready to make during a correction you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific six to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen you'll be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility market if you understand what you own just like peter lynch says these corrections don't have to be a bad thing for you as an investor in a sense all these stocks are going on sale if you have a particular company that you believe is a great purchase you should be overjoyed to see it be dragged down by the rest of the market buying a great stock during a downturn in the market gives you an edge on everyone who will buy it back when things are in the green in comparison to them you will make all their gains and more you might wonder why people don't capitalize on every correction we see the simple answer is that people are afraid when a stock is sliding and you wake up to a lower number every day not many people's first reaction is to look for entry points the majority of retail investors stay far far away the people who come out on top of these are the ones you hear about today warren buffett ray dalio peter lynch and every big name you know of spent every recession researching like mad for the best companies to pick up either that or they built bigger positions on the ones they already owned the fact of the matter is that you need to have the mental fortitude to stick to your game plan and hold on to those precious stocks it's only going up but not everyone will catch the train there's always something to worry about this is the difference this is what happens in the stock market because see everybody's got the brain power to dwell in stock market question where do you have the stomach for it that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about at the end of the day what really matters is whether you hold stock in quality companies during good economic times most stocks trend upwards but the best companies pull ahead during bad economic times most stocks trend downwards but the best companies regain their positions much quicker before we talk about timing these corrections let's recap quickly market corrections and recessions are without a doubt a natural part of the market investor sentiments and world events make waves throughout the financial world every year and there's no telling which ones will be worse how do we handle them by holding our grounds buying stock in strong companies that can get back up after being knocked down is the key to coming out on top as an investor once you are holding those golden stocks you have to keep yourself from falling for fear keep your words about you and buy more smart stocks as the opportunity presents itself alright guys so now we know what a market correction is and how to deal with them when they make an appearance as any intelligent investor would you're probably wondering what the best ways time these market corrections make even bigger stacks well we have some bad news for you rather peter lynch does the 13 years i ran magellan the mark went down nine times 10 or more i had a perfect record i went down more than the market every time went down went down more so i just didn't worry about it the point is you would you say to yourself do i need this money in a year do i need this money in two years do i need this money in three years so am i longer term stock market's been the best place to be last 10 years last 30 years last 130 years but if you need the money in one or two years you shouldn't be buying stocks as tough as it sounds there just isn't a dependable way to guess when these next corrections are coming just like peter mentioned he didn't bring his funds from millions to billions by seeing into the future or using advanced mathematical algorithms to time the next correction he grew wealth by not worrying about when the next correction would come if you're worried about bad timing in the market let me remind you of one particularly famous quote by ken fisher time in the market beats timing the market there's no such thing as timing the market much thus timing the corrections and recessions if you can't handle that it's usually because you might need the money and can't afford to wait while it is shrinking in a downturn that's nothing to feel bad about but it's something to be considered as you look at stocks to buy these strategies are used by the most successful investors because they are dependable and return huge gains that being said it also requires the investment of time if you are investing your savings you plan to keep in the market for years to come then you'll hit every correction with perfect timing if you have any suggestions as to what topic you want us to cover post your comments now if you want to learn from the best we made a video on warren buffett's mentor benjamin graham and how he beat the market every year there's a lot to learn from this guy see you next time you
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