저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 2008년 금융위기 예측과 베팅 사례를 소개하고, 그의 최근 경고(인플레이션 재상승, 2023년 하반기 침체 가능성)를 정리한 영상. 영상은 버리가 주택시장 거품을 보고 신용부도스왑(CDS)으로 베팅해 큰 수익을 얻었다는 과거 사례를 설명한다. 당시 서브프라임 대출이 담보부증권(MBS)으로 묶여 안전자산으로 팔렸지만 실제로는 위험했다는 구조를 짚는다. 버리의 이력도 다룬다. 안과 신경외과 의사 출신으로 2000년 Scion Capital을 세워 가치투자를 했고, 방대한 데이터 분석 능력이 강점이라고 소개한다. 2022년 9월 트윗에서 그는 암호화폐·밈주식·SPAC 붕괴와 인플레이션을 2000년·2008년 붕괴 패턴과 비교하며 경고했다고 한다. 2023년 1월 트윗에서는 인플레이션이 정점을 찍었지만 이번 사이클의 마지막 정점은 아니며, 2023년 하반기 CPI가 낮아지거나 마이너스가 될 수 있고, 미국은 어떤 정의로든 침체에 들어갈 것이며, 연준이 금리를 내리고 정부가 부양하면 또 한 번 인플레이션 급등이 올 수 있다고 주장한다. 영상은 버리의 전망을 따르려면 취약한 투자처를 찾아 공매도하는 방법을 언급하지만, 구체적 종목이나 가격 목표는 제시하지 않는다. 출연자 전망의 구체적 종목 방향 예측은 없고, 거시 경기 침체 및 인플레이션 경고가 핵심이다.
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what the heck is going on down here uh I don't know all of a sudden here we started hearing screaming bye bye the 2008 financial crisis was a wild ride for the Global Financial system it was a time when the fabric of the economy was stretched to its limits and the entire world held its breath as massive Banks and financial institutions teetered on the brink of collapse in the Calm before the storm only one man could see the disaster coming and his name was Michael burry Michael burry was an eccentric hedge fund manager who saw the 2008 financial crisis coming from a mile away he was convinced that the housing market was a bubble waiting to burst so he made a bold move betting against the housing market by purchasing credit default swaps a type of insurance that pays out if a borrower cannot pay back their loan when the crisis finally hit Murray's bet paid off in a big way making him and his investors massive profits while the rest of the world was struggling thanks Michael he also became known as one of the very few people who saw the crisis coming and profited from it cementing his reputation as a legendary investor and a hero to some but a villain to most Michael burry's bet on the 2008 financial crisis is a tale of vision courage and perseverance that will be remembered for years to come and was made into a movie so that's really great for him in this video we're going to do a deep dive into how this Mastermind managed to predict a massive financial crash that no one else could foresee in doing this you might also catch on to some unique ways of looking at markets that can offer you similar advantages but stick around until the end and we'll take a look at Michael burry's latest prediction for the future Market that is going to impact everyone on the globe and a few people on Mars but that's a whole different video but this is a guy that you need to be listening to nonetheless the financial crisis was caused by a combination of risky lending practices toxic mortgage-backed Securities and a housing market bubble that finally burst as the situation escalated the government had to step in with massive bailouts to prevent a complete meltdown but the crisis had far-reaching consequences leading to a deep recession High unemployments and a widespread loss of trust in the finance system yet it was also a time of incredible resilience and Ingenuity as governments and central banks work together to stabilize the markets and set the stage for a slow but steady recovery in short the 2008 financial crisis was a pivotal moment in history that changed the financial world forever Michael burry was a neuro-ophthalmologist turned hedge fund manager classic story he spent the earlier years of his career putting in thousands of hours towards understanding the inner workings of our brains and how they manifest in our vision of course though this isn't what he's known for now Michael started his own hedge fund Scion capital in 2000 with a focus on value investing he was known for his unconventional approach and his tendency to Buck the trend which often put him at odds with the rest of the financial Community he was also known for his meticulous research and Analysis as he spent countless hours pouring over Financial reports and Company data to uncover hidden value in the market you might say that buries insane attention to detail was due to his time spent in higher education and the medical field while this is certainly true his own unique mental makeup characterized by his autism played a role in his uncanny talent for analyzing large amounts of data and understanding the cause and effects of the financial Market however despite his unorthodox style bury's fund was a huge success delivering impressive returns year after year and attracting more and more investors by the time the 2008 financial crisis hit Michael burry had already established himself as a successful and enigmatic figure in the world of finance and his bet on the housing market would only add to his legacy the way that he determined that a financial crash was coming in 2008 was by analyzing the housing market and the mortgage-backed Securities that were based on it he saw that the housing market was fueled by easy credit and low interest rates which had led to an unprecedented boom in home buying this wasn't the clue that tipped him off to his Discovery though this just appeared to be a happy time in the market for everyone however what he did see was that a large percentage of the loans being made were subprime meaning that they were given to borrowers with questionable credits he realized that these loans were often bundled together into mortgage-backed Securities and sold to investors as low risk investments in other words these Securities were supposed to be safe Investments because the loans that were feeding them were held by people who would definitely pay them back at least that's what they were supposed to do however because of the risk that lurked beneath the surface of these Securities he believed that it represented a dangerous illusion these Securities were based on loans that were likely to default he predicted that if the housing market crashed these Securities would lose their value leading to widespread losses and a potential financial crisis I'm sure that won't happen right but by purchasing credit default swaps he was essentially betting that the housing market would crash and his bet paid off in a big way when the crisis finally hit in 2008.
touche Michael you got me there I didn't see that one coming although you might think this is his first big prophecy there's another one that he's made that may pay off once again but you'll have to wait until the end of the video to hear about it so as always there are winners and losers in every trade made in the market someone has to buy and someone else has to sell you can imagine that if nearly everyone was losing money then the one betting in the other direction was making a lot of money Bray made profits of roughly 300 on his trades that year although the exact numbers were not disclosed this comes out to roughly 100 million for himself and 700 million for his investors not to shabby Michael generally if you can see things in the market that others don't you stand to make yourself very wealthy of course these things are once in a blue moon the economy continually goes through cycles of growth and loss and with it comes unique situations just waiting patiently for the intelligent investor to recognize them in fact we may be on the cusp of another great opportunity with our current Financial Market bury is sounding the alarm on social media warning that inflation is just getting started after reaching its peak he predicts it will once again surge to new heights in a familiar cycle as the economy slows down and the mighty Federal Reserve steps in to prop up a sinking economy let's take a look at what sorts of insights Michael burry has been laying out on social media these are Clues and hints for another huge investment opportunity so if you know which direction the market is headed it can change everything for you financially so in September of 2022 he laid out his Viewpoint in a short tweet that said nothing more than crypto crash check meme crash check SPAC crash check inflation check 2000 check 2008 check 2022 check great stuff Michael thank you for the Tweet but I promise you we're getting somewhere because Michael is pointing out very clearly how Trends seem to repeat themselves much like in 2000 and 2008 overvalued Investments are losing Steam and pulling the entire economy down with them much like these past Financial crises the odds of this leading to a recession are pretty high and in a tweet that has since been deleted because he apparently likes to do that Bernie said that all hype speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes hashtag fomo parabolas don't resolve sideways when crypto Falls from trillions or meme stocks fall from tens of billions hashtag Mainstreet losses will approach the size of countries history ain't changed can I just say that was very difficult to read I'm sure he has a point there but like speaking in Twitter language and trying to formulate that and and just natural vernacular doesn't really make it easy but in early January of this year he tweeted inflation peaked but it is not the last peak of this cycle we are likely to see CPI lower possibly negative in 2H 2023 and the US in recession by any definition fed will cut and government will stimulate and we will have another inflation Spike it's not hard buries says that the U.S will find itself in a recession by any definition he puts it this way because the federal government and large financial institutions can have funny definitions of what makes a recession often these are revised to better fit the modern economy but the point here is that regardless of how you define a recession Michael burry says we are headed in that direction use this information how you will if you trust in Michael burry and want to follow his strategy you can seek out the most vulnerable investment options and short them betting on a recession and maybe you can have a movie made about you but as for the time being we are still waiting to see if his predictions are fully realized while we brace ourselves for tough economic times take a moment to like this video And subscribe to our Channel it shows your support and allows us to keep creating content like this but as for this video that's all we have in store for today we look forward to seeing you in the next one
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