저자: JeremyGrantham—제목/설명기준,출처:CityWire인터뷰인용 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 현재 시장이 '슈퍼버블'의 마지막 국면이며 역사상 최대 규모의 주가 폭락이 임박했다고 경고한다. [슈퍼버블의 정의와 신호] 슈퍼버블은 일반 강세장과 구별되는 극단적 투자심리 현상이다. 1929, 1972, 2000, 작년(2021)에만 나타난 특징은 블루칩은 오르는데 투기주는 하락하는 괴리다. [시장 과열 배경] 코로나19 봉쇄 때 연준이 대규모 유동성을 공급했고, 2020년 1월~2021년 10월 사이 미국 달러 통화량의 80%가 새로 발행됐다. 이 돈이 주식시장으로 흘러들어 가격을 밀어올렸다. [인플레이션과 정책 딜레마] 통화 팽창으로 달러 가치가 떨어지고 인플레이션이 발생했다. 연준이 금리를 올리면 기업과 개인이 감당하기 어려워 정부는 진퇴양난에 놓였다고 진행자는 설명한다. [역사적 사례] 1634년 네덜란드 튤립 버블은 최초의 기록된 금융버블로 제시됐다. 닷컴버블(2000년)은 인터넷 기업들의 합산 가치가 여러 나라 GDP를 웃돌 정도로 과열됐다가 투기주 하락, 블루칩 상승을 거쳐 붕괴했다. [투자자 대응] 워런 버핏의 '남들이 탐욕스러울 때 두려워하고, 남들이 두려워할 때 탐욕스러워라'를 인용한다. 업종 자체가 쇠퇴하는 경우(DVD 대여업 등)는 손절이 맞지만, 인플레이션 우려·전쟁 위협 같은 외부 요인에 의한 하락이라면 패닉 매도 대신 보유하고 여유자금으로 저가 매수하라고 조언한다. [리스크 및 조건] 그랜섬의 전망은 '연준의 대응'과 '저금리 지속 여부'에 좌우된다. 저금리·투기 장려 환경에서는 버블 국면이 반복될 수 있다고 본다. 영상은 2022년 9월 시점의 발언이며 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않았다. [출연자 전망 요약] 그랜섬: 미국 주식시장, 특히 S&P500과 투기적 성장주에 대해 큰 폭의 하락(역사적 규모의 폭락)을 예상. 현재 시장을 슈퍼버블의 마지막 단계로 판단.
다듬은 글
probably this was the most extreme case the the most extreme phase that stock markets only go up and any setbacks are temporary and inconsequential which of course just ain't so setbacks are multi-years incredibly painful and almost everybody in the fomo category would not stand the pain and we'll check out after some incredible years for the stock market in the late 2010s the naive optimism of investors and even regulators seems to be catching up to us are you feeling nervous looking at the state of the s p 500 and other indices it's uncomfortable to see the market struggling and one might feel a little afraid for the future in this video we're going to run through some comments made by jeremy grantham in a city wire interview he came on board to talk about the so-called super bubble that is growing beneath our feet grantham claims that one of the largest stock market crashes in history is headed our way stick around until the end of the video because we're going to talk about how to prepare you and your finances for this possible crash jeremy grantham started one of the very first index funds in the world back in the 1970s since then he has gained prominence within the financial community for his ability to read and predict the market with surprising accuracy his firm grantham mayo and von ocholu oversees more than 65 billion dollars of investments for its clients let's hear what jeremy had to say in this latest interview i think there's actually quite an insight to be had to recognize that the super bubbles are a separate species if you average in every bull market what you get is a a story diluted by a dozen irrelevant data points it simply dilutes the whole point the the great bubbles are ones that have plenty of crazy behavior that sell way at the top of the range of history and uh and they have this unique feature at the end that there's a divergence at the end of the blue chips going up and the leading speculator starts going down that only happens in 1929 in 1972 in 2000 and last year the only times in history that you've had a decent move upwards in the blue chip s p and a substantial move downwards in the in the speculative stocks that had previously led the charge upwards it is very strange unique to the super bubbles and we have just had it and that's what gave me so much confidence last year that we had entered the zone completely it they are the most extreme points of invested psychology where you buy into the idea that markets only go up and probably this was the most extreme case the the most extreme faith that stock markets only go up and any setbacks are temporary and inconsequential which of course just ain't so setbacks are multi-years incredibly painful and almost everybody in the fomo category would not stand the pain and we'll check out i think humans are vulnerable to these waves of excessive optimism i think in in a perfect world well led with it with a sensible fed and good signals being put out you might be able to go for the best part of a couple of generations without having a super bowl but in a world where rates are low speculation is encouraged asset prices are rising because the rates are coming down then you're going to have more than your fair share of these crazy moments where everybody believes the fed is behind them and they can't lose and that was classically uh what last year and the year before represented let's take a look back at how the market got into the states then we'll examine super bubbles and the role they are playing the current state of the market is certainly worrying when the economy teetered on the edge of disaster during the cove 19 shutdowns the federal reserve used extreme measures to prop up the financial situation eighty percent of all u.s dollars in existence were printed between january 2020 and october 2021.
we use the term printing liberally but that doesn't mean all of those dollars were physical money this money was then used by people to push the market higher but at what expense the huge influx of money into the us economy caused the value of our currency to plummet now prices are rising as dollars become worth less and less this is what we call inflation and it has often been the precursor to economic collapse for many analysts a market crash seems incredibly likely the standard federal reserve response to inflation would be to raise interest rates unfortunately neither businesses nor the average citizen could afford high enough interest rates to contain this new inflation this leaves the governments between a rock and a hard place either way fixing the economy won't be pretty jeremy grantham spoke of super bubbles in the clip reaches worlds so what role do these play in the stock market collapse super bubbles are distinguishable by two characteristics one is naive optimism in the market pushing assets or securities to higher than ever before let's use a classic example for this one the tulip bulb mania of holland in 1634 is the first recorded financial bubble that we know of for some context tulips had been recently introduced and widely popularized in holland they became incredibly sought after and people soon began buying and selling them purely because of their value naturally this caused prices to soar to never before seen levels eventually the prices reached a fever pitch and people began to stop demanding tulips the bubble burst and the insane evaluation of these flowers looked like a foolish mistake for investors the other super bubble characteristic is speculative stocks falling as blue chips rise this has only happened in 1929 1972 2000 and last year this was one of the major indicators of the dot-com crash in the year 2000s new internet companies were being invested into heavily by everyone spurred by the promise of never-before-seen services of course while this was true the optimism pushed investors a little further than they should have dared to go at one point the combined worth of nasdaq internet companies was heavily outpacing the gdp of nations around the world then things began to change slowly at first and then rapidly the speculative internet stocks began to slide and the tried and true blue chip stocks like general motors were being bumped up this was the beginning of the bubbles pop as professional investors and advisors recognized that the value of these speculative stocks was nearing unmanageable levels when they began to get out everyone noticed as quickly as it inflated the balloon collapsed bubbles and super bubbles can appear in anything from stocks to assets like real estate and even commodities like gold and silver some people say that the growing interest in cryptocurrency could risk creating a bubble itself if you want to learn more about how crypto is actually putting people ahead of these tough economic times check out our video on raul pal about how crypto will level the playing field for younger generations all this talk about financial collapse and super bubbles can make for an anxiety-inducing youtube session so let's fight this dupday conversation with some talk about what you can do to prepare when you have a plan in place to protect your wealth you'll sleep much better at night when you're handling your investments it's important to remember that your mentality affects your success you've likely heard the saying before it's warren buffett's most famous line we must be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful but how do we apply this to our investment goals at its most basic this is about self-control and emotional regulation if you are holding stock and it begins to drop rapidly your first instinct would be to sell out and cut your losses there are two reasons a stock may be failing and this is the correct reaction to only one let's take for example a failing industry maybe you're invested in dvd and video rental companies others are likely fearful that this particular market is on its way out so they sell as the stock loses momentum you can see that the industry as a whole is coming to a close stocks in these positions do not rise again and cutting your losses is smart on the other hand let's look at the current losses that we see in the s p 500 and other stock market indices this is not happening because all of these companies are failing other forces are moving the market such as inflation fears and the threat of war it is generally outside influences like this that causes fluctuations in price if this is the case then the market can be expected to rise once again to higher levels as it always has yes even in the case of a market crash history may not repeat itself but it certainly rhymes here we see why being fearful when others are greedy can lead you to losing wealth prematurely the right course of action would be to not sell at a loss despite everyone jumping ship your stock will almost certainly rise again unless the company goes under furthermore if you have extra money it would be time to get greedy and buy up cheap stocks this is one major key to the millions the major investors make especially during a market crash jeremy grantham is doing his duty by warning the world of an incoming crash made by our super bubble whether you believe him or not the market signs are worth paying attention to by staying in tune with the market you can make the correct moves and protect your wealth thanks for tuning in again to profit protection if you enjoy this video leave us a like and subscribe to the channel so that we can continue producing high quality content for you
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