원문 보기
In fact, we've got Ed Yadini joining in on the show right now to talk about exactly that. Ed, hi, morning. Good to have you on the show. And seems like a lot of uncertainty in the world is dissipating, but is it uh too soon to actually assume that all is well and it can't get better than this? Well, I agree with you that the market uh has in a matter of weeks moved from uh lots of things to worry about to suddenly maybe nothing to worry about.
Even on the geopolitical front, there seems to be a lot of potential ceasefires going on, even a potential ceasefire between India and Pakistan, between the United States and the Houthis, uh between Russia and Ukraine. You know, the these are all tentative, but uh it certainly suggests that things are moving towards a more peaceful diplomatic and negotiating approach to dealing with world problems.
And here in the United States, uh I think the odds of a recession have uh gone down now that um Trump's trade war seems to be simmering down. uh and now that we have not only 90 days uh through July 8th for negotiating with every country around the world except China and now we have 90 days I guess from today and that negotiating with China with certainly lower tariffs than we had at the beginning um at the end of last week.
So all in all it looks it looks pretty good and um there just seems to be a tremendous amount of buying power. Some of it may be short covering but I think a lot of it is is FOMO, fear of missing out and the fundamentals are probably going to look better and better as uh we get u approach 2026. Uh so Ed, what could be the next big trigger for equity markets to go higher?
Uh could it be Fed? Could it be uh American earnings? What could be that next big uh trigger? Yeah, I don't think it's going to be the Fed. I think if anything, the Fed is going to remain on hold for for longer. There's no particular reason for the Fed to lower rates. If the labor market remains resilient, which it has, even as the trade war got started, now that the trade war is easing off, I would expect that the labor market would remain relatively robust.
Yeah, I I think it is going to be earnings. I think it is going to be the resilience of the economy. I think the US consumer is going to continue to spend. I think capital spending uh which everyone thought would be very weak because of uncertainties. Uh I think capital spending on technology uh seems to uh be quite resilient as well.
Uh the the data center spending has a lot to do with the demand for cloud computing and cloud computing demand is only increasing. And of course uh we're uh rapidly approaching the uh the age of humanoid robotics, autonomous driving. These are no longer uh theories. They're no longer u you know uh toys.
They're they're actual they're actually going to be items that uh influence our lives dramatically. So, um, I I today, as a matter of fact, uh, raised my outlook for the S&P 500 back up from 6,000 to 6,500 by by year end. And I also lowered my odds of a recession from 35% to 25%. The rem the remaining 75% I would characterize as a potential for a roaring 2020 scenario.
Uh, and so I I'm picking up on that. uh theory of mine, that thesis of mine uh which I've held since the beginning of the decade. All right, Ed, . But .
Comments 0