저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
US-중국 갈등은 장기화될 것이며 트럼프가 시장을 조절하지만 대만 문제로 합의 지속성은 불투명. 인도-파키스탄 휴전 후에도 군사 대비 필요. 인도 시장은 규제 완화 시 투자 확대 예정이며 방산·제약·IT 섹터에 관심. 미국 증시는 바닥 대비 약 50% 회복 여지가 남았다고 봄. 트럼프 정책으로 국내 생산 기업 중심 재편 예상. 인도 은행은 관심 있으나 우선순위는 낮음.
다듬은 글
Chairman U Mark Mobius Emerging Market Opportunity Fund joins us. Mark, good morning. Thank you for joining us. Are you joining us from Dubai, I'm assuming? And now I'm in Florida, United States. I just arrived. So you stayed late at night for us. Thank you very much. Yes, it's a pleasure. Oh, well, you know, the situation is interesting.
First of all, I have to congratulate India for the conclusion of this situation with Pakistan. But I think India has got to keep an eye on this situation and continue to prepare for a repeat of this kind of situation. So I'm glad to see that the Indian military is ready and able and uh I think it's important that they keep a very close eye out on the situation.
Uh this will go on for quite some time I believe until there is a massive reform in Pakistan and that's will take time as we go forward. Um, as regards to the situation with China and the US, you must remember that Trump plays the markets like a fiddle. He if he sees the markets going down, he'll make some changes in order to allow the market to move up again.
So, it's not all over. It's there's going to be more and more back and forth between China and the US. must remember at the end of the day what Xiin Chin wants is Taiwan and that's the big big issue overhanging the US and China and that's not going to go away soon. Hopefully they'll reach some kind of an agreement but I believe that the big problem with China as we've seen in the past is that there have been many agreements but the question is does China adhere to those agreements?
Will they uh follow up on those agreements? That's where the US has got to be very careful and of course I'm sure they're well aware of this problem. So yes, the markets will uh do well if the agreement is reached but I think it's not over. It's going to take a long time to see the ultimate conclusion of the situation.
Okay. Uh Mark when I spoke to you last I think you were slightly tentative about Indian market valuations. Are you convinced now? I mean India has been one of your large positions. Are you looking at increasing the exposure now that we have Yeah. Yes. I well you know we have a new fund and we want to get into the end market but the problem is it's taken it's up to three months now we've been working to try to get into the Indian market.
The uh paperwork and bureaucracy is incredible. I think it's very important for India to to loosen up on these regulations to make make it easy for people to invest particularly now that you have this opportunity to take business away from China and so I think it's very important that India open up more and more but yes I believe there's great India and as soon as we're able to we will be investing in Indian stocks we've got a number of ideas I think uh the defense se sector is very interesting.
Pharmaceuticals is going to be interesting now in view of what Trump said because now US pharmaceutical companies will have to look for lower price pharmaceuticals that India can supply. So I think that's going to be very interesting going forward and of course we always like the IT sector in India that's going to be a very good sector to be active in going forward.
your your holdings were APL, Apollo, Persistent, Vodafone, and if I'm not wrong, Wy renewables, right? Yes. These are these are all great stocks, but we're looking at other stocks. Can't say which ones yet, but we're looking at a number of new opportunities in India. As you know, India's uh tech sector is deep and there are many companies that have great opportunities.
So we're looking at all those. You mentioned that Indian IT companies are great companies. While these are great companies, cashri companies, strong buybacks, but there's no growth. Growth is up 10%. Would you still buy these stocks? But no, we look course we're looking for growth. Uh that's the reason why we look beyond those stocks to look at companies that just coming up that are now at the bottom or now just starting and have great growth prospects.
uh of course we want stocks that have a good return on capital but most important is growth earnings per share growth is incredible and that's very something we want to focus on okay Mark um why is that China despite attractive valuations is not getting what was called as a easy trade uh you know US money will move out of US India it'll go to emerging markets within that India is expensive it will go to China Why is that easy trade easy trade not panning out?
Well, I think the problem is that a lot of US investors have been focusing on the US market. They see great opportunities the US particularly now with the reforms that Trump is instituting. However, um after the US, India is number one. there's great great opportunities in India provided that the Indian market is more open and that the there's a cut down on bureaucracy very important uh in order to get for example semiconductors going in a big way in India there has to be incredible deregulation to allow people to bring in equipment to allow them to bring in components etc etc these are essential for the production of semiconductors Mark uh where does uh this entire uh come back I mean how much more do you think this comeback trade in US equities will ex you know also extend itself because most of the US markets including the Dow and NASDAQ they pretty much have retraced what they had lost after the tariff selloff.
So even though tariffs are at play and US economy decisively will slow down in second half, US markets have been quite resilient. Yeah. Well, don't forget we're about halfway up from the bottom. We've got another 50% to go to reach where we were before. That's number one. Number two, uh you must remember now with the Trump policies, uh the whole the whole situation in America is changing.
We now have to start focusing on companies that are domestically oriented that are producing domestically and not dependent upon imports. That's a big big change. So u you can't be looking at the stocks that were doing well last year anymore. You got to look at new stocks that you haven't noticed before because they weren't on the radar.
People were not looking at them because they were just domestic producers. So that's going to be a big change in the US going forward. Uh Mark, uh what about Indian banks? Historically, you liked some of the Indian banks and I remember you had a large exposure to HDFC Bank and some of the other private banks.
Are you looking at increasing your exposure there even after the recent runup? Yes, we're looking at the banks. But uh before the banks as I said defense uh the defense sector the IT sector pharmaceutical sector those will come first before we look at the banks but yes there are some opportunities in banking.
All right Mark really appreciate your time. Thank you for your inputs and thank you for your valuable time. Let's take a break. That was Mark Mobius on ET now on describing uh you know where he thinks the puck is likely to move. But we are in for a good solid grand start. 500 points is what Nifty is indicating.
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