저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 금리 인상은 계속되며 인플레이션이 고착화되고 있어 경기침체와 채권시장 붕괴 위험이 크다는 비관적 전망. 연준 발표 내용: 기준금리 75bp 인상, 연방기금금리 4%. 그러나 금리 인상 속도 둔화에 대한 신호는 없었음. 10월 미국 경기선행지수는 0.8% 하락(114.9)으로 8개월 연속 하락. 연준 발언의 공포 요인: 파월 의장이 '물가 안정이 필수이며 정책을 성급히 완화하지 않겠다'고 말하자 다우는 초기 400포인트 상승분을 반납하고 마이너스로 전환. 질의응답 후 일부 회복했으나 고점에는 미치지 못함. 실질금리 문제: 연준은 실질금리를 플러스로 유지하겠다고 재확인. 인플레이션이 6%로 떨어지면 금리는 7%까지 올라야 하므로 시장이 감당하기 어렵다는 주장. 근원 물가 인지 불능: 파월은 근원 인플레이션율을 모른다고 답변. 발언자는 이를 연준이 얼마나 강한 인플레이션과 싸우는지도 모른다는 뜻으로 해석. 인플레이션 고착화: 파월은 인플레이션 고착화 시점을 알 수 없다고 답함. 발언자는 이미 고착화되었으며 원인은 심리가 아니라 연준의 장기간 통화 팽창이라고 주장. 정책 한계: 연준은 경착륙과 단기 경기침체는 감수하겠지만 더 나빠지면 개입할 것이며, 인플레이션이 2%에 근접하기 전에 도구를 쓸 것으로 전망. 설령 2%에 도달해도 경기부양으로 되돌아가 인플레이션이 재상승할 것이라 주장. 연준에는 탈출 계획이 없다고 평가. 언급 자산 전망: 채권시장 붕괴 위험 강조, 금리 인상 지속 전제로 금리 상승(채권 가격 하락) 방향 우려. 주식 관련 구체적 종목 언급 없음. 리스크: 금리 인상 지속, 인플레이션 고착, 채권시장 급락, 경기침체 심화. 출연자 전망은 전반적으로 하방·비관적.
다듬은 글
the Federal Reserve delivered on Market expectations for another 75 basis point rate hike the FED funds rate now stands at four percent but what the Federal Reserve failed to deliver was on the expected softening in the FED stance on the future trajectory of interest rate hikes in October the United States leading economic indicators fell 0.8 percent to 114.9 twice the forecast decline this is the eighth consecutive month that leading economic indicators have declined if the U.S is not already in a recession this certainly indicates that one is coming Peter Schiff who was an American stockbroker Financial commentator and radio personality shared in a tweet two weeks ago the Federal Reserve delivered a 75 basis point rate hike but Fed chair Jerome Powell failed to deliver the more dovish rhetoric that many expected the messaging did not indicate much softening in the stance on the future trajectory of rate hikes despite an apparent soft pivot the week before in this video Peter broke down Powell's messaging and pointed out several very scary admissions that came out of the FED meeting I believe the Fed was forced into making that pivot because it stood on the precipice of a bond market crash which was in the process of happening and I think the only way the Fed was able to stop that slow motion Crash from playing out and accelerating was by throwing a bone of the markets and indicating through the Wall Street Journal that there was going to be some type of statement that was going to go along with the rate hike that we got today that would indicate that maybe there was going to be a pause in the pace a Slowdown in the pace that the Fed was going to take a step back and reflect and assess and maybe acknowledge the progress that had been made without indicating complete Victory but at least acknowledging that victory was at least in sight and that the FED could take a more cautious approach going forward to rate hike something to that effect was expected however for nothing even remotely close to that was delivered by Powell now when the markets initially got the news of the 75 basis point hike it was accompanied by an official statement that created some hope that Powell had in fact delivered on what the markets expected the Dow Jones initially rallied about 400 points and the reason for the optimism was that the statement read that the committee was going to take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation and the idea that many people myself included Drew from that was that hey the Fed was now going to take a step back acknowledging this lag rates have come a long way fast and we need to take a pause and to see exactly what we've achieved before moving forward forward or maybe we're going to raise rates more slowly than we originally thought acknowledging the lags that take place it seemed to me and probably everybody else that that is the direction that Powell was going to go in the press conference but it didn't even wait for the Q a because as Powell was delivering his prepared remarks at the press conference but before he went off script and took any questions he read something that scared the markets and that entire 400 Point rally in the Dow disappeared and the Dow went negative and the words that he spoke that spooked the market were that price stability is essential and the historic record cautioned strongly against prematurely loosening policy and that we will stay the course until the job is done now the minute those words were spoken the Market's tanked but as Pals started to field some questions the mark has recovered somewhat not all the way up to the highs but the Dow got to up about 200 until Powell started really showing his hand but he wasn't holding the cards that the market had expected the FED has created so much inflation for so long it didn't even start with covet it didn't even really start with QE the Fed was creating inflation even before it upped the ante to quantitative easing and then upped it again in the aftermath of covid Powell also admitted that inflation was a lot higher and has lasted a lot longer than anybody at the FED had expected Powell reiterated the fed's commitment for positive real interest rates meaning an interest rate that was higher than the inflation rate Powell basically said yeah that's where we're going and right now the FED funds rate is four percent and the inflation rate is higher than eight percent now pal implied that he believed that we would get to positive real interest rates because of a reduction in the inflation rate so it wouldn't require interest rates above eight percent if inflation came back down to four percent well we could have positive real interest rates at five percent but what the markets are likely to be afraid of and if they're not afraid of it now they will be is what if inflation doesn't come down what if it stays High what if maybe it comes down but it only comes down to six percent well that means if pal wants to have positive real interest rates if inflation is six percent then then we need to go to seven percent and that's a much higher rate of interest then the markets are prepared for or could handle and so I think the fact that pal had to acknowledge that ultimately we have to have a positive real interest rate that is very scary for the markets then Powell was asked a question about what he and the fomc believed was the current underlying inflation rate in the U.S economy meaning not the headline rate that we all read about but beneath the surface what do you think the rate really is because it can't be eight and a half or whatever the CPI is it must be something lower than that and so what do you think it is and Powell's answer was we don't have a number like we've got no idea we're clueless as to what the underlying rate of inflation may be now that is a very scary admission by the FED because if the FED is committed to fighting inflation but it doesn't even know how big the monster that it has the slay is then how does it know how many raid hikes are going to be necessary how does he know how high rates have to be in order for there to be a positive real rate of interest if he doesn't even understand what the underlying rate of inflation is and if he doesn't understand it now why will he understand it at some point in the future the FED has no clue all it's looking at is the same headline numbers as everybody else and based on that the FED is still way behind the inflation curve and has a long way to go and that again should scare anybody who is counting on the FED to ease up on its current trajectory of Titan but then Powell was asked another question about whether or not he believed inflation had become entrenched and I think the interesting part about that answer is that he didn't say no you would have thought that power would have said no it's not entrenched yet we're just gonna make sure that it doesn't becoming trenched no he never really answered the question with a yes or no answer in fact what Powell said eventually was that the FED has no way of knowing when inflation becomes entrenched that's another scary admission by the FED because if it doesn't know it's just kind of Flying Blind and it has to err on the side of caution to make sure that inflation doesn't become entrenched but again all of this discussion about entrenched inflation assumes that inflation is a psychological phenomena it's not inflation doesn't become entrenched because of psychology it becomes entrenched because of monetary policy and I think it already is entrenched and the reason is because of the fed the FED has created so much inflation for so long it didn't even start with covet it didn't even really start with QE the Fed was creating inflation even before it upped the ante to quantitative easing and then up it again in the aftermath of covid the FED is willing to tolerate a hard landing and a mild short recession but if it gets worse than that it will use its tools Peter said he thinks it will use those tools long before inflation gets near two percent but even in the extremely unlikely situation where the FED got inflation back down to two percent because of its tightening and then with inflation at two percent the FED then used those tools to stimulate the economy anything it had achieved in reducing inflation will be lost and the inflation rate will Spike back up again so even if inflation does go to two percent the FED still can't use those tools it is only safe to assume that the FED doesn't even have a plan to get out of the self-dug hole and will be dragging everyone along with it how well are you prepared to cushion the effect of future monetary tightening and interest rate hikes let us know in the comment section below don't forget to like the video subscribe and turn on notifications thanks for watching foreign
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