저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 과도한 비관이 극에 달하면 반등이 나올 수 있다고 보지만, 그 랠리는 마지막 상승일 가능성이 크며 글로벌 경기 붕괴에 대비해 실물자산(금·원자재)을 준비해야 한다고 주장한다. 시장 심리와 역사적 패턴: 로저스는 큰 비관이 쌓이면 보통 반대 방향 충격이 나온다고 보며, 최근 연준의 완화적 발언 등으로 낙관 반등이 있을 수 있다고 언급한다. 다만 이는 예측이 아닌 가정으로 제시된다. 1999~2000년 나스닥 급등 후 폭락 사례를 들어, 거대한 랠리가 긴 약세장 직전에 나타나곤 한다고 설명한다. 과거 경고 이력: 로저스는 2008년 금융위기를 예측한 몇 안 되는 인물로 소개되며, 2021년 8월 버블 붕괴 및 2022년 말 경 큰 약세장 가능성을 경고했다고 영상은 전한다. 또한 고금리 환경에서 시장이 2008년보다 더 나쁜 약세장에 들어설 수 있다고 봤다고 설명된다. 세계은행 전망 인용: 세계은행은 글로벌 성장률이 2021년 5.5%에서 2022년 4.1%, 2023년 3.2%로 둔화된다고 전망했다. 미중 무역갈등, 금리 상승, 금융시장 변동성이 리스크로 꼽혔고, 1970년대식 스태그플레이션 가능성도 언급됐다. 채권·부동산·주식 전망: 로저스는 중앙은행의 돈 찍기로 인해 채권은 버블 상태이며 수십 년간 강세장이 오기 어렵다고 본다. 부동산에도 문제가 있고 상당수 주식도 버블이라고 평가한다. 현재 싼 자산은 실물자산뿐이라고 주장한다. 실물자산 및 원자재: 설탕 가격은 최고점 대비 70% 하락, 은 가격도 70% 하락했으며 이는 버블 수준이 아니라고 언급한다. 통화 발행이 계속되면 실물자산(은, 밀, 원자재 등)이 오를 수 있어 이를 활용해 자산을 보호하라고 권고한다. 리스크 및 행동 조언: 버블은 부채와 자산가격 거품에서 비롯되며 중앙은행의 통화 공급이 지속될 수 없다고 경고한다. 자산 분산, 식량·물·연료 등 필수품 비축, 경제 붕괴 대비 재무 안정 확보를 조언한다. 출연자 본인은 지금 실물자산 공부와 대비가 필요하다고 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 낙관 랠리가 나올 수 있으나 장기적으로는 큰 경제 붕괴와 실물자산 강세장이 올 가능성이 높다고 본다.
다듬은 글
you know there's been a lot of pessimism around as you well know uh and in my experience when there's huge amounts of pessimism usually something happens to break the pessimism we said we've had it in the last couple of weeks because people the Federal Reserve has talked about well maybe we're not so not going to be so tough or whatever it is uh this is not a projection but suppose there's peace in Ukraine or something Jim Rogers is a legendary investor who has made remarkable predictions since the 1970s he is one of the few people who predicted the 2008 financial crisis and has been warning about a new world economic collapse for the past decade in a recent interview Rogers warned that a global economic collapse was imminent and that individuals should begin to prepare now he believes people need to start protecting their assets and preparing for the worst case scenario he also believes that individuals should invest in gold and other Commodities to hedge against inflation Rogers advises that people should not wait until it is too late to start preparing and should begin to take action now this isn't the first time Jim sends warnings to the world about a collapse recently in 2021 financial news media Economic Times reported his statement in an August post about how everything would go into a bubble and would probably happen late that year or in 2022 in the post it was also revealed that he believes we are hitting into a horrible bear Market due to dead rise which is now higher than it was in 2008.
this is no news now as we can see the effect of all these welcome to Savvy economists in today's video we'll take a look on why Jim Rogers says the new world economy is facing a collapse and why he urges everyone to prepare ithout further Ado let's Dive Right In we begin with a short clip of Jim Rogers it often happens to break the pessimism we have a big wave of optimism and a gigantic rally gigantic rallies have often happened at the end of world markets or the beginning of bear markets so we may well have another gigantic rally but that would probably be the last one if you ask me usually at the end of a long School Market when you have a gigantic rally at the end it's usually the end I mean if you can remember NASDAQ at the end of 1999 and 2000 I mean it's skyrocketed somebody doubled in six months or something uh just as we were about to collapse this is the way markets work fortunately or unfortunately so I I just want to point out when you have a lot of pessimism start thinking about going to the other side for a while the end of the 1999-2000 with the beginning of that bear Market it skyrocketed there at the end after a long secular bull market and then it would everybody thought happy days are here again this is going to go on forever an interesting sideline in 1999 I think that was exact year the Wall Street Journal to Wall Street Journal I mean not some neighborhood newspapers started using with capital letters that words the expression the new economy capital n capital e this is the way they The Wall Street Journal referred to the world it was the new economy actually and capital E they don't do any more about it eventually they stopped capitalizing new economy but that's how things get in local markets that's how Wild they get and that last gasp as we were discussing before can be wildly exciting if you're on the right side I have heard I've seen too many times when everybody was on the same side of the boat you better go to the other side of the boat when that happens Roger cited that when there is a lot of pessimism which is the tendency to see the worst aspect of things or something worse about to happen we all need to start thinking about going to the other side in other words this literally means the need for us to think of a solution plan and act fast before the event Catches Us unaware in respect to this Rogers also mentioned how the long period of a bull market in 1999 and 2000 made everyone so relaxed without having a backup plan this is because they all thought the good and happy days were back again and it was going to last forever however everything came to a halt when the bear Market began late that year and skyrocketed Beyond expectation this shows why even if the situation of things gets suitable for a while we all need to still prepare for worst case scenario that could happen anytime any day the World Bank is also one of the latest institutions to warn that the global economy is hitting for a recession and has warned of a possible return to 1970s style stagflation a combination of high inflation and low economic growth according to popular news media Fortune in its semi-annual global economic prospects report the World Bank said that growth in advanced economies was slowing sharply and that most emerging and developing economies were also losing momentum the trade war between the United States and China is having a chilling effect on global growth and Rising interest rates and financial Market volatility are also adding to the risks according to the World Bank forecast Global growth will slow significantly from 5.5 percent in 2021 to 4.1 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023 as pent-up demand Fades and fiscal and monetary assistance is removed globally this forecast is a great warning to us all because a prolonged period of low or negative growth could lead to a debt trap where countries are unable to service their debts and risk tipping into recession here's another short clip from Jim Rogers back to what I said before when the central banks panic and start printing money again inflation comes back and the you know bonds are certainly in a bubble they're not going to be in a bull market for decades property is going to have problems as we've discussed many stocks have been a bubble the only thing that's still cheap are real assets and if they print money when they print money it leads to some things going higher but those are usually silver wheat you know real assets the price of sugar is down 70 percent from its all-time high that's not a bubble the price of silver is down 70 percent from its all-time high those are not bubble kind of numbers so the only thing that is cheap that I know of I mean yes there's property some places yes blah blah but but the only thing as a class are real assets and they do go up when there's a lot of money Printing and so I if people know about real assets maybe they should do more research and homework and maybe that's a way to protect yourself usually for a while you have a bull market in real assets and for those who know what they're doing be prepared from rogers's analysis in the video it's obvious he believes that a bubble is being driven by debt and asset price bubbles he said that central banks around the world have been printing money to prop up economies and create asset bubbles but this can't continue forever he warned all bubbles in badly and this one will be terrible if we don't prepare ahead Roger believes that now is the time to prepare for this collapse as it could have drastic consequences for the global economy as a result Rogers has been encouraging people to take steps to protect themselves and their finances by diversifying their Investments and being prepared to weather the storm there is a need for people to stock up on Necessities like food water and fuel and to take other steps to ensure their Financial Security in the event of an economic crash Rogers is a strong advocate for taking action now to protect yourself and your loved ones in the face of a potentially devastating economic collapse his warnings could not come at a more critical time as the world is facing an unprecedented economic crisis his advice should be taken seriously and individuals should act now to protect their wealth and prepare for the inevitable that's all for today kindly let us know your thoughts about everything discussed so far in the video
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