저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 2023년 미국 경제 붕괴(recession/crash)를 예상하며, 지금 대비하라고 주장한다. 고용 지표: 챌린저 감원 보고서에서 11월 감원이 76,835명으로 전월의 2배 이상, 2021년 11월의 5배 이상이라고 언급. IT 부문 감원은 52,771명으로 2000년 통계 이후 월간 최대. 11월 비농업 고용은 26.3만 명으로 예상(20만 명)을 상회했고, 전월치는 28.4만 명으로 상향 수정됨. 그러나 실업률 3.7% 유지, 노동참가율은 62.2%→62.1%로 하락해 노동시장이 약하다고 평가. 임금 분석: 평균시급이 전월 대비 0.6%로 예상(0.3%)의 두 배 가까이 올라 연준의 긴축 우려를 자극. 전년 대비 5.1%. 그러나 Schiff는 임금 상승이 인플레이션의 원인이 아니라 결과라고 주장하며, 물가 상승률(약 8%)이 임금 상승을 웃돌아 실질임금이 붕괴 중이라고 봄. 인플레이션: 연준의 금리 인상은 인플레이션 억제에 실패하고 소비자의 차입을 어렵게 해 경제만 해친다고 평가. 실제 인플레이션은 공식 수치의 약 2배일 수 있다고 주장. 고용의 질: 신규 일자리 대부분이 정부·의료·레저/접객 등 서비스업이며 제조업은 1.4만 명(예상 2만 명)에 그침. 생산 없이 소비만 늘어 무역적자와 물가 상승 압력을 키운다고 봄. 결론·전망: 2023년 경기 침체 및 붕괴가 올 것이며, 정부의 주식시장 부양과 부채 확대, 연준의 통화 증발이 결국 심각한 불황을 부른다고 경고. 대응책으로 학위·자격증 취득(고용 대비), 금·은·부동산·수집품 등 인플레이션 헤지 자산 분산 투자를 제시. 리스크: 인플레이션이 경제를 잠식하고 있으며 지출 습관을 조심해야 한다는 주장. 특정 종목에 대한 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
in fact yesterday the Challenger job cut report came out and it showed 76 835 job losses in November that is a huge number it's more than double the number of job Cuts announced the prior month and more than five times as many job Cuts as were announced in November Peter Schiff a prominent American investor and stockbroker is predicting an economic crash in 2023 that will have far-reaching and devastating impacts Schiff who was CEO and chief Global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital has long been warning that the U.S economy is headed for a crash and that the government's policies of artificially propping up the stock market and issuing more debt will ultimately lead to a severe recession Schiff believes that the current economic situation is unsustainable and that the issue of excessive debt the ballooning of the national debt and the federal reserve's money printing will all lead to a collapse of the U.S economy he is urging people to prepare for the crash now as it will be too late to take action when it actually happens in this video Peter Schiff talks about the unemployment rate and job losses and how inflation is eating up the economy please watch like and share this video also drop your comments and thoughts below and remember to subscribe to the channel for more related content similar to this we begin with a short clip of Peter Schiff yesterday morning the labor department released the highly anticipated November non-farm payroll report otherwise known as the jobs report and I think a lot of investors were anticipating that we would finally get a Miss in the number of jobs created the consensus was for 200 000 jobs created in November and I think a lot of people on the street were looking for a lower number and for good reason lots of companies had been announcing layoffs particularly technology companies in the video Peter Schiff mentions the Challenger job cut report which reported that around 76 835 jobs were lost in November he goes on to state that this figure is more than double the amount of job layoffs revealed the previous month and more than five times the number of job Cuts announced in November 2021.
this assertion was backed up by a trading Economics Report which indicated that the job cutbacks are the largest since January 2021 compared to 33 835 in October the report also disclosed that the I.T sector declared 52 771 layoffs the largest monthly number for the sectors since precise industry statistics began being recorded in 2000 according to a report by Yahoo finance a rising number of Corporations particularly in large tick are battering down the hatches as they warn of oblique economic future many Democrats have have criticized the Federal Reserve for its rapid interest rate Rises according to an article posted by Fox Business and have warned that they would ultimately lead to further job losses listen to these carefully in fact this is the seventh month in a row where the jobs numbers have come out stronger than expected and as a matter of fact this report even included an upward revision to the prior month which was originally reported as plus 261 000 which was a beat well now it's a bigger beat because that was revised to 284 000 but the November number came in at plus 263 thousand jobs but probably what the markets also reacted to in addition to that bigger than expected number was the larger than expected increase in average hourly earnings which were expected to rise 0.3 which would have been a smaller rise than the 0.4 which was originally reported for the increase in the prior month well that number was revised to up 0.5 and the November number came out at 0.6 double would have been estimated and actually 50 percent above the upper end of the range of estimates which rent from a low of 0.3 to a high of 0.4 and year over year average hourly earnings which were expected to rise by 4.6 and which would have been a slight reduction from the up 4.7 from the prior month instead we revised a prior month to up 4.9 and November instead of going down it Rose to up 5.1 percent so a big increase in average hourly earnings both on the month and year over year and that sent the chill through the market that the FED would now have to be tighter with its monetary policy because inflation was getting worse due to increased pressure from rising wages now average hours worked actually declined a bit from 34.5 to 34.4 but still workers got paid more for every hour that they did work and that of course adds to the upward pressure on costs that their employers are already having to deal with but in reality it's not Rising wages that are going to cause higher inflation it is higher inflation that is causing wages to rise wages are just a price the price of Labor just like every other price and prices are going up because of inflation Rising prices don't cause inflation they result from inflation and what this jobs report indicates is higher inflation inflation is pushing up wages now they're not going up as much as prices because prices are still up about eight percent year over year and that's the official increase the actual increase is probably twice that amount and so real earnings are collapsing and that is the real story behind this payrolls number because contrary to the way it's being described by the media it is not a strong report Schiff believes higher inflation is causing wages to rise not the other way around he cites several examples of how inflation is affecting everyday items he goes on to say that while the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to combat inflation it has only further hurt the economy by making it more difficult for consumers to borrow money Schiff argues that higher inflation not Rising wages is to blame aim for the current state of the economy he believes that the economy will continue to suffer unless something is done to stop inflation prices are rising because of inflation inflation is the increase in the prices of goods and services it is caused by the increase in the money supply the money supply is the amount of money in circulation when the money supply increases prices go up inflation is a real problem for the economy it erodes the purchasing power of families and businesses it makes it difficult to save for retirement or rainy day and it makes it hard to borrow money for a new business or a new home the government tries to fight inflation by raising interest rates this makes it more expensive to borrow money and slows down economic growth but raising rates too much can cause a recession so the government has to be careful with interest rates the other thing that can help fight inflation is tax cuts tax cuts put more money into people's pockets and help them afford higher prices however even tax cuts can also be risky as such a move which was recently adopted in the United Kingdom didn't pan out well for their economy the jobs report indicates that inflation is pushing up wages this is good news for workers but it will eventually lead to higher prices for goods and services inflation is eating up the economy and we need to be careful with our spending habits if we want to avoid an economic downturn listen to these carefully a strong report in fact I read one news story that described the U.S labor market as being hot because of this report we had a red hot labor market according to the media well the labor market is not hot it's actually cool in fact it's pretty much ice cold and that's what the non-farm payroll report actually reveals if you're smart enough to look beneath the surface and by the way you don't have to look very deep just looking at the nature of the jobs that we're were created they were almost all service sector jobs only 14 000 manufacturing jobs were added that's well below the twenty thousand that were expected and even more below the thirty six thousand that were added in the prior month remember the problem with these service sector jobs and a lot of them were in government they were in health care they were in Leisure and Hospitality but these jobs don't produce Goods but the people who have these jobs buy Goods well if they're buying goods that they didn't help produce where are these Goods coming from they're going to come from abroad these jobs that are being added are simply going to add to the trade deficit as people who have non-productive service sector jobs take their paychecks and buy Goods that they didn't help produce and not only do these jobs put upward pressure on the trade deficit it they also put upward pressure on Goods prices because you have more people with paychecks to buy Goods but you don't have more people working to produce those goods so you don't get the increase in Supply but you do get the increase in demand so not only did this jobs report indicate higher inflation but it portends even higher inflation in the future but getting back to the details of the report itself the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent but the labor force participation rate fell it went from 62.2 down to 62.1 it dropped the 10th the expectation was for an increase of 1 10 to 62.3 in fact the consensus forecast went from 62.2 to 62.3 nobody expected labor force participation to drop but that's exactly what happened and that is indicative of a weak labor market Peter Schiff is not the only one talking about Job losses and inflation while his perspective may be dire there are things that can be done to mitigate the effects on both American workers and families there are several alternatives to Simply losing your job or experiencing inflation if you are worried about losing your job look into getting a degree or certification in a field that is in demand this will make you more attractive to potential employers and help you whether any layoffs that may come your way if you are worried about inflation consider investing in assets that will appreciate in value over time gold and silver tend to do well during periods of inflation as do real estate and Collectibles by diversifying your portfolio you can protect yourself from the negative effects of inflation what can you suggest that needs to be done for the economy in combating inflation kindly let us know in the comment section below that's all for today kindly share this video with your family and friends and don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe to our channel for more updates like this thanks for watching anticipate our next video update
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