저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 이미 '은밀한 경기침체' 상태이며 연준의 긴축 실패와 전략비축유 방출 등 일시적 요인으로 착시가 생기고 있다. 경기 지표: 제조업 생산은 예상 0.2% 상승이었으나 0.1% 상승에 그쳤고, 전월치도 0.4%에서 0.2%로 하향 수정됐다. 설비가동률은 80.4%에서 79.9%로 하락해 경기침체 신호로 제시됐다. 지역 연은 지표: 캔자스시티 연은 제조업지수는 10월 -7, 11월 -6이었다. 필라델피아 연은 제조업지수는 11월 -19.4로 컨센서스 최저치(-15~-5)보다도 낮았다. 착시 요인: 3분기 GDP 플러스 성장은 전략비축유(SPR) 수출과 강달러로 인한 낮은 무역적자 등 일시적 요인에서 나왔다. 특히 SPR 방출은 1982년 이후 최저 수준이며 내년경 완전 소진될 것이라고 주장했다. 물가·통계 왜곡: GDP 디플레이터가 실제 물가상승률보다 낮게 잡혀 성장률이 과장된다고 주장했다. 정부가 인플레이션을 과소 발표해 경제를 실제보다 강하게 보이게 한다는 취지다. 통화정책: 연준은 금리 인상에 집중하지만 대차대조표 축소(QT)가 더 중요하며 잘 되지 않고 있다. 국채 가격 하락과 금리 급등이 나타났고, 31조 달러 부채를 가진 정부에 불리하다고 봤다. 전망 및 리스크: 강달러가 되돌아가면 내년에는 무역적자 축소 효과가 역전되어 GDP를 더 끌어내릴 것으로 본다. 시장 신호는 이미 큰 경기침체를 가리키며, 연준이 이를 감추고 있다는 주장이다. 시청자에게 미리 자산을 방어하라고 촉구했다. 출연자 전망: 침체와 스태그플레이션 가능성을 강하게 경고하며 현금·안전자산 대비를 강조했다.
다듬은 글
few goods well one way to help alleviate the upward pressure on prices is to have more Goods but if we're not producing more then we're not going to get more and if you look at manufacturing output That was supposed to rise 0.2 instead it Rose at just 0.1 and again the prior month's number was revised from up 0.4 to up 0.2 these are very low numbers and making it worse look at the capacity utilization rate it sank from 80.4 all the way down to 79.9 that is a very weak number indicative of recession and in fact the prior months number was revised from what was originally reported as 80.3 down to just 80 Peter Schiff is an economist Financial broker slash dealer author frequent guest on national news and host of the Peter Schiff Show podcast he laments on the negligence of the FED in fighting inflation and how he could have been way better off than we were now if actual policies were been put in place interest rate hikes get most of the attention as the Federal Reserve fights inflation but balance sheet reduction is arguably more important and it's not going well when the FED started quantitative tightening the artificial demand had created disappeared as a result bond prices tanked and interest rates spiked this is not a good scenario for a U.S government with more than 31 trillion dollars in debt If the Fed was serious about fighting inflation it would not only let maturing bonds roll off its balance sheet but it would also sell treasuries into the open market this would shrink the FED balance sheet and pull excess dollars out of the economy but the central Bankers know they can't do that without collapsing the treasury market according to Peter we are in what could be called a stealth recession as the FED is putting a cover over the actual recession announcement with an excuse of a positive GDP in the third quarter which was caused by unprecedented factors and very temporary ones at that let's get into the video and expand more on that remember to like the video subscribe and drop your comments below we continue to get more economic data that confirms that the economy is in fact in recession it's actually a stealth recession because nobody wants to acknowledge that it's actually here and of course we did get positive GDP growth in the third quarter so that's also throwing everybody off remember when we did have two negative quarters of GDP they still denied that we were in a recession so now that they got a positive quarter it makes the denial even more plausible but again when you look into the reasons for the positive number It's All Temporary it's all the result of exporting oil from the Strategic petroleum Reserve which I think is now at the lowest since 1982 and continues to be drained by sometime next year it will be completely empty there will be no more strategic oil left in that petroleum reserve and that means that oil price will be set to explode higher and there'll be nothing we can do about it just imagine if we actually got a legitimate shortage if something actually happened where we would have normally liked to have utilized those reserves in a legitimate emergency instead of the political emergency that Biden faced and in fact had we not sold all that oil from the Strategic petroleum Reserve maybe the Democrats wouldn't have done as well in the midterm elections because people would have been a lot more pissed off about inflation when they were driving to the polls with even more expensive gasoline than what they ended up paying but the other factor that contributed to gaining GDP in the third quarter in fact the only Factor because if you x that out GDP contracted yet again was that the trade deficit was much lower than expected partially because of the export of oil from the Strategic petroleum Reserve but also because of the strength of the dollar that made our Imports less expensive and so strength to trade deficit that dollar strength is already reversing and by next year it will start subtracting even bigger numbers from an already weakening GDP plus as usually is the case the inflation number that they use to deflate the GDP in Q3 the GDP deflator was actually much lower than what I believe the actual rate of inflation was or the increase in consumer prices during that quarter so that is exaggerating the economic growth because if you can make believe that inflation is lower than you simultaneously get to pretend that GDP growth is higher and that's another reason that the government has to lie about inflation because not only do they fool the public into thinking that inflation isn't as bad as it is but at the same time they get a 2 fur because that also means they get to lie to the public about how strong the economy is because they get to show a stronger GDP number than what they would show if they had an honest inflation number but looking at the data that came out over the last few days yesterday we got the Kansas City fed Manufacturing Index and in the month of October it was negative seven and in the month of November it came out at negative six sure slightly higher than the negative seven but still a negative number that indicates contraction also today we got the industrial production numbers for October and there we were supposed to be up 0.2 instead we dropped 0.1 and adding insult to injury we downwardly revised the prior month's number which was originally reported at up 0.4 that was up just 0.1 so your flat now over two consecutive months for industrial production and again why this is bad is because if you're trying to fight inflation one way to make the job easier is to increase the supply of goods because remember prices go up because you have too much money 0.1 but an even worse number that we got today was the Philadelphia fed Manufacturing Index That was supposed to come out at -7 which would have been a slight improvement over the minus 8.7 from the prior month but any negative number is consistent with recession you want a positive number if you want a growing economy and so we got a negative number but the number that we actually got from November was minus 19.4 this was below even the lowest estimate on the street because the consensus range went from minus 15 to minus five so nobody thought this number would come out pause positive but nobody thought it would be this negative because the economy continues to surprise people by being weaker than everybody expects but still you have back-to-back negative numbers all these numbers would be positive if the economy was in fact growing but the fact that all these manufacturing numbers are coming out negative indicates that it's Contracting and again this is complicating the fed's inflation fight the U.S trade deficit in Goods widened sharply in September likely is a strong dollar and softening Global demand weight on exports but that did not change expectations that trade led to an anticipated Rebound in economic growth in the third quarter the report from the Commerce Department also showed moderate increases in wholesale and Retail inventories last month suggesting slowing domestic demand was forcing businesses to become more cautious about ordering more Goods the Federal Reserve is aggressively hiking interest rates to tame inflation boosting the dollar and curbing spending the goods trade deficit increased 5.7 percent to 92.2 billion dollars last month September's increase reversed only a portion of the prior month's declines leaving the goods trade deficit considerably lower in the third quarter while the trade deficit looks to have narrowed substantially in the third quarter we think that the stronger dollar will help push the deficit wider over time all Market signals point to a very big recession already in place but the FED insists on sugar coating and hiding that fact to not take full responsibility and this is where Peter beseech Americans to see beyond the facade and understand that there is a real problem here and if you don't save yourself now you will be caught up in the spiraling tornado when it fully hits are you prepared to make sacrifices for your future let us know what you think in the comment section do like the video subscribe and turn on notifications thanks for watching
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