저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 인플레이션이 두 자릿수가 일상이 되는 '뉴노멀'이 올 것이며, 연준은 이를 잡을 수 없다고 주장한다. [핵심 주장: 인플레이션 구조] 연준의 QE1·QE2·QE3와 대규모 재정적자로 통화가 과다 공급되었고, 이것이 지금의 인플레이션 쓰나미의 원인이라고 본다. 과거 CPI가 2% 내외로 보였던 것은 통계 조작 때문이며, 실제 인플레이션은 4~5% 이상이었다고 주장한다. 코로나 이후 대규모 통화 발행과 경제 봉쇄가 문제를 폭발시켰다. 현재 8~8.5% 전년比 인플레이션은 '빙산의 일각'이며 더 크게 오를 것이라 한다. [연준의 한계] 연준은 10년 넘게 인플레이션을 만들어 왔고, 이를 없앨 방법이 없다고 본다. 인플레를 잡으려면 금리를 물가상승률 이상(예: 8%면 10%)으로 올려야 하나 그럴 수 없으며, 금리 4~5%도 붕괴 없이는 어렵다고 한다. [해결책과 리스크] 재정적자 해소를 위해서는 큰 폭의 정부지출 삭감과 중산층 포함 증세가 필요하나, 정부·연준 모두 그럴 의지가 없다고 본다. 채권시장 붕괴, 국가부채 위기, 통화위기가 올 수 있다고 경고한다. [달러·금·원자재] 달러 강세는 연준이 인플레를 잡을 것이라는 잘못된 믿음에 기반했으며, 이 믿음이 깨지면 달러가 급락할 것이라 본다. 달러가 꺾이면 원유 등 가격이 다시 크게 오른다고 한다. 당시 금 가격이 상승(온스당 약 1,700달러대로 언급 수준)하고 은도 상승 중이라고 언급하며, 금·은 강세 흐름을 긍정적으로 본다. [금리·은행] 영국 중앙은행의 피벗과 스위스 UBS 구제 가능성을 들며, 높은 금리에서 미국 은행도 안전하지 않다고 주장한다. [유럽 및 기타] 유로존도 가스가격 위기와 가뭄으로 인플레가 오르고 있으며 두 자릿수 인플레도 배제할 수 없다는 Bert Cullen(유로존 수석 이코노미스트)의 발언을 소개한다. [결론 전망] 인플레이션은 일시적 하락 후 다시 상승할 것이며, 지금은 정점이 아니라 저점 근처다. 두 자릿수 인플레가 매년 지속되는 '뉴노멀'이 미국인의 삶이 된다는 것이 핵심 메시지다. [자산별 언급] 금·은 상승 흐름 긍정, 달러 약세 전망, 원자재(유가) 재상승 전망, 미국 채권시장 붕괴 가능성 경고.
다듬은 글
but the real crash that I wrote about you know and the title of that book came about because the crash that I wrote about in my 2007 book uh crash proof a lot of people thought the crash we had in 2008 was what I was writing about no I predicted that crash that was part of it but it wasn't what I really was worried about what I really was worried about is what hasn't even happened yet uh and that's why I wrote the second book it's just surprising me now looking back that it's taking so long for this to play out when it comes to inflation American consumers are all too familiar with the general prices of goods for example a basket of everyday grocery items like eggs milk and potatoes doesn't cost much and has remained relatively unchanged for years however as any Frugal individual knows prices rise when demand is high and commodities become scarce today Americans are feeling the pinch when it comes to gasoline utilities and other everyday items that we can't go without if we intend to remain in our homes the official unemployment rate has fallen because so many people have given up looking for work and dropped out of the labor force with the government continuing to spend trillions and the fed monetizing their debt the cost of living will continue to rise even with the recent slight drop in gas prices expect them to soon go back up again the reason is simple we are still exporting oil but not enough to make up for what we use domestically yet every time there is an uptick in oil prices you see articles on how Americans are not Hybrid owners or drive small cars so they can't be affected they are affected because when crude oil goes up everything made from plastic goes up as well including gas stations which use a lot of plastic in their construction and maintenance in fact the average markup on gas at a gas station is about 15 cents per gallon according to a post by Omega welcome to Savvy economists in this video episode we will discuss why Americans need to see the fact that double-digit inflation will be the new normal for them don't forget to please watch like and share this video if you enjoy it also leave your comments and thoughts below and don't forget to subscribe to the channel for more related content similar to this we begin with a short clip of Peter Schiff an American stockbroker Financial commentator and the current CEO and chief Global strategist of euro-pacific capital Incorporated Peter is popularly known for his economic and public policy views most especially his forecast about the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis that hit the United States and the whole world I always knew that the problem was the government had Unleashed this massive inflation tsunami I just didn't know you know when it was going to hit I thought it would have hit sooner but they did qe1 QE2 qe3 they printed all this money we had massive depth budget deficits we created a mountain of inflation and but nobody cared about the inflation because all they did is look at the CPI and they said well you know it's not going up more than two percent and part of the reason for that was the way they rigged the numbers it really was going up more than two percent but it wasn't going up 10 maybe it was going up four or five percent but they could budget enough to make it look like it was going up less than two percent but after we kicked the you know monetary uh you know uh heroin into a massive overdose after covid right we just went crazy with the money Printing and we sent everybody home and and had people not work I mean that really brought everything to a head and so now we're experiencing the consequence of the inflation I've been warning about for more than a decade and this is just the tip of the iceberg it's going to get a lot worse the eight percent eight and a half percent year-over-year inflation that we've seen is going to go much higher the FED is not going to be able to fight inflation it spent the last 10 years or more creating inflation and there's no way they're going to get rid of it not unless they're willing to allow a much worse than financial a much worse financial crisis than the one we had in 2008 not unless they're willing to allow a far greater recession than the Great Recession we had in 2008-2009.
Peter Schiff discusses why the rising inflation rate is a sign of increasing debt and inflationary policies which will continue to happen throughout the lifespan of our nation he believes that the situation on the ground is just the tip of an iceberg and worse scenarios are imminent according to a post by the balance hyperinflation which is when inflation reaches over 50 percent a month occurs when a government is negligent of the inflation rate and essentially prints more money this is quite disastrous as it can lead to an economic collapse in the United States such situations happen to Germany in the 1920s and Zimbabwe in the 2000s let's hear from Peter Schiff again and in order for us to get rid of inflation the government is going to have to get rid of the budget deficits because they've been paid for with inflation so we have to have massive cuts to government spending and maybe big increases in taxes not on the rich but on the middle class on average Americans are going to have to pay much higher taxes because if government has been paid for through inflation and if we're going to find another way to pay for government other than inflation well then it's going to have to be another form of Taxation and and so I don't really see the Federal Reserve having the guts to stick to the inflation fight I don't see the US government you know having the Integrity to make the type of spending cuts or tax increases that would be necessary so we're just going to have inflation and the markets don't understand that but we're going to have double-digit inflation as a way of life in America it's just going to continue for year after year after year and there's really no relief in sight and then I do think at some point you know the bond market is going to collapse we'll have a sovereign sovereign debt crisis and a currency crisis as our creditors realize that the dollars of bottomless pit but you know in the short run we had this big sucker rally in the dollar maybe it just ended you know we're having a big update Gold's up but 30 35 today Silver's up a dollar and a half uh so we're starting to see uh people question the fed's resolve in fighting inflation now that we saw the bank of England uh pivot and now we're looking at potential bailouts of UBS and Switzerland and some investors are starting to think wait a minute you know if the British couldn't handle it if some Bank European banks are going to fail with higher rates what about American Banks we're not immune uh to this and we're not I mean if the FED raises its interest rates the way it's claiming I mean everything is going to implode and now people are realizing that the FED may not allow that to happen and so the dollar is going to implode instead when you see the dollar roll over remember we've had these big increases in consumer prices with a huge increase in the value of the dollar relative to the euro and Yen and other currencies and so that's really mitigated how much prices have gone up and so when the dollar reverses that's going to push prices up much higher so the temporary drop we saw in oil prices that's going to reverse other prices that pull back when the dollar was strong long are going to rise when the dollar weakens because remember the strength of the dollar was based on the false perception that the FED could actually win a fight against inflation and was prepared to do what it took to win that fight but of course the people who thought the Fed was going to beat inflation or the same people that thought there was no inflation they said inflation wasn't a problem and then they said it was transitory and then they said oh don't worry the FED is going to fix it with a few rate hikes it's not going to work the rate hikes will matter won't be effective because they're not enough a the FED has to get interest rates above the rate of inflation and so if inflation is eight percent then you got to go to ten percent they have no chance of getting anywhere near 10 they won't even get the five they probably won't even get the four without a collapse and you also have to have the big cuts to government spending and right now government is increasing spending nobody is talking about reducing government spending all they're talking about is new ways to spend more money and that creates even more more inflation and and so yes we got a little bit of a dip because you know nothing goes in a straight line everything Ebbs and flows so we'll have a little bit of a pullback in the headline inflation numbers and maybe some people will be lulled into a false sense of confidence but then inflation is going to take off again I mean think about how many times last year they kept saying Peak inflation Peak inflation every time you know went down a little bit they were celebrating that it was over and then of course then we'd have a new number and make a new high but we're nowhere near the peak we're near the trough that's how bad this is now the inflation is the problem and you can't just you know turn that off you can't have a foundation of debt and inflation and then build a whole phony economy on top of it and then take away the debt inflation and not expect the whole thing to come crashing down with the current state of the economy it is no surprise that double-digit inflation will be the new normal for Americans gas prices are already on the rise and the cost of living is on only going to continue to increase Bert Cullen senior Economist Eurozone also confirmed in a video footage that the European supply side are also facing problems with the gas price crisis going on and droughts adding to energy problems he further stated that all these leads to the Eurozone inflation rising and a possibility of a double-digit inflation cannot be ruled out this inflation will have a ripple effect on the economy as the cost of goods and services will go up and people will have less money to spend this could lead to a recession as people will be forced to cut back on spending and businesses will suffer the government will need to take action to prevent this from happening and the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates to help keep inflation in check the government can also curb inflation by using fiscal policy to reduce government spending and raise taxes this will help to reduce the amount of money in circulation and help to keep prices stable inflation is a measure of how much prices for goods and services rise over time when inflation Rises the cost of living also increases inflation hurts everyone but especially people with limited incomes The New Normal is higher taxes more regulations and double digits inflation as a way of life anyone thinking we'll go back to normal at some point should read history more often let that sink in for a moment double-digit inflation as a way of life not just once in a while or for one quarter but year after year after year going forward The New Normal is an economy where everything costs more every single year do you think that this statement by Peter Schiff could be a fallacy kindly let us know in the comments section below don't forget to hit the like button and subscribe to our Channel thanks for watching see you in the next video foreign
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