저자: RobertSockin/EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 25bp 인상 이후 은행 스트레스는 수주 내 완화되고 연준은 인플레이션 대응으로 복귀, 다만 변동성은 수개월 지속될 전망. 연준 결정 및 옐런 발언: 옐런 재무장관이 예금 전액 보장에 선을 그은 발언이 파월 의장(예금 안전 가정)과 엇갈려 시장 혼선. 야디니는 옐런의 발언이 실수였고 파월 입장이 우세할 것으로 봄. 은행 자체의 안전 보장은 정부·연준이 할 수 있다고 봄. 연준 금리 경로: 시장은 추가 인상 1회(25bp) 정도로 본 상태. 소켄은 FOMC 점도표가 추가 인상 1회로 유지되고 문구가 완화되어 옵션을 열어둔 것으로 해석. 시즌 은행 스트레스가 금융여건을 얼마나 조이는지에 따라 달라짐. 스톡 전망(연준 관련): 소켄은 은행 스트레스가 수주 내 완화되면 연준이 인플레이션에 집중하며 최종금리 5.5~5.75%까지 갈 것으로 유지(매파적 전망). 야디니는 은행 위기가 금리 50~100bp 인상과 맞먹는 효과를 낼 수 있어 추가 인상이 불필요할 수 있다고 봄. 글로벌 시장: 야디니는 달러 약세가 신흥국·유럽 주식에 우호적이라고 봤으나 유럽은 자체 문제 존재. 미국 주식은 특별히 싸지 않음. 소켄은 글로벌 기회 탐색 필요. 금리 변동성·리스크: 은행 스트레스 이후 국채금리가 크게 등락. 소켄은 미국 특정 은행과 유럽 은행 우려가 간헐적으로 재발해 봄까지 변동성 지속 전망. 정책 대응이 빠르고 은행 자본이 양호해 상황은 안정될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
all right uh stocks lots of stocks to watch and lots of corporate developments which we will highlight in a bit from now but let's stay with the global stuff Robert stockin is global Economist at city and Ed yardini is president at yardeni research both are joining us right now to take some questions great to have both of you with us here thanks very much for your time uh Ed if I can start by asking you what you made of uh you know secretary yellen's Commons which kind of seemed to be in contrast to what we heard from Powell at the press conference uh you know Powell basically said that depositors should assume that their deposits are safe and here she kind of ruled out any Blanket Insurance for all deposits which one is it that's a good question I mean it really makes your head spin to see the kind of talk that we had today and its impact on the marketplace uh I think Janet Yellen misspoke uh I think that uh Powell's position is probably the one that's going to Prevail here and the idea is that I guess the government uh the treasury just that is and the FED are not in a position to ensure deposits but they are in a position to guarantee that the banks themselves will remain safe and so I think that's the fallback situa position that yelin's going to have to uh get back to really quickly here um uh Robert uh so what's the the take away the market uh till up till uh the the treasury secretary spoke seemed to be of the view that we'll probably get another quarter or uh uh you know percent rate hike and that's it from there though the fomc statement itself is pointing to the uncertainties of the banking developments on the larger economy uh so how should we read and interpret the next couple of months with respect to policy tightening that's a great question and uh thanks so much for having me and I think going into this meeting was a very tricky meeting for the FED um and I think the way that they handled it um really highlights um the Dual objectives that they're trying to balance and the uncertainty of the situation so the FED is trying to balance um its fight against inflation at the same time maintaining Financial stability um and right now where we are we don't know how much of the banking stresses that we've seen are going to prove more long-lasting and we don't know how much they're going to move into the real uh economy and so the tone of the FED very much reflected that they did still hike on 25 basis points but I think the key to that communication is that they held uh the Dot Plot In just one more hike which was the same as it was in the prior meeting and they really highlighted and softened up the language about what they're going to do next and really leaving a lot of optionality uh on the table so it depends really when you think the FED is going to do next depends on how much you think these banking stresses are going to tighten Financial conditions how much these things are going to be destabilizing and how much they're going to play into the real economy our view is that these stresses will largely subside over the next several weeks and that's going to allow the FED to Pivot back to focusing on inflation which Still Remains uh fairly intense and fairly high so we haven't changed our fed call we think they're still going to go to five and a half to five seven five I know that's on the more hawkish side but it's really based on this view that we think that these stresses are probably going to subside over the next several weeks and it's going to focus again back on inflation but I think the FED meeting today the real takeaway is this is a very uncertain situation and the fed's very open to seeing how the data play out and then they'll move based on based on those factors all right note that uh Robert permissive coming back to you then what are you factoring in in terms of how many more rate hikes we see is it just 25 business points and then we're done or do you believe you have couple of more in the offering provided we don't get any more banking shocks that come out from the United States well I think that the Federal Reserve uh may very well go One More Time by 25 basis points though um I think the fact that we now have this banking crisis and that the FED understands that the banking crisis is equivalent to some increase in the FED funds rate as we mentioned uh Powell suggested it might be equivalent to 50 basis points I think it could be equivalent to 100 basis points nobody really knows um as Robert said there's a lot of uncertainty here about how it plays out but I think first and foremost uh the the fed and the treasury are going to have to get their act together and make sure that they're using the exact same language to describe the importance of keeping the banks safe and I think if they can undo the damage from what uh elen managed to do today then I think the banking crisis uh will be equivalent more to 50 than 100 basis points and it probably will mean that it doesn't really have to go again what does it mean for uh Global markets uh Equity markets in particular this kind of a monument uh in your in your view well I think that uh we've seen the dollar weaken a year on the perception that the FED is getting close to done uh the ecd may still have further to go because uh they they lag behind the fed and so a weaker dollar generally uh speaking tends to be uh good for a global alternative markets whether it be Emerging Markets or European markets but of course European markets uh have lots of their own problems and the ECB is still talking rather aggressively about fighting inflation so I I don't know that it's uh radically changes the outlook for investing on a global basis I still think you know you have to look for opportunities around the world the US isn't particularly cheap but then again some of the cheap markets are cheap for a reason got that Robert uh you know just another question markets have been whipsawed and even some of these banking issues are a result of the matter in which rates are moving right I keep going back to an analogy of a slightly reckless driver where you are you know hiking and then suddenly there's talk of cutting I mean there are a lot of expectations and cuts as well as we get into 24 right uh so your thoughts on how this will play out and whether just this forward and backward momentum on interest rates in such a large Market whether that could lead to further complicated consequences whether it's economy or whether it's banking uh that's a a great point to make and uh you know just to highlight the uncertainty again of the situation I mean the moves that we've seen um since these banking stresses have emerged and markets have been have been huge and at times you see um you know treasury yields move up significantly you've seen them move down significantly you've seen stress in a lot of a lot of different areas I really think that's the market um trying to uh figure out um exactly exactly how deep and how far these uh these stresses go and that's probably going to continue um for some period of time into the spring because you're likely to get more episodes of uh banking stress at certain players in the US you're going to get Market fears about about banks in Europe they'll probably flare up at different times so I think we're in for a period of volatility um and uncertainty and certainly that doesn't help um uh from an investing standpoint or from a stability standpoint and I completely agree um with with Ed's point that I think that part of the reason that we think these stresses are going to subside um over over the coming weeks is that you know in this episode uh policymakers have moved swiftly they've moved powerfully um they've kind of learned the lessons from 2008 um that you shouldn't let these issues Fester um and that the response has been fairly rapid and impressive on top of that you're dealing with banking systems that are well capitalized and and well regulated overall so I completely agree that in order to get some of these Market swings and to calm down and maybe to get the system stabilized we need sort of a coherent continued uh policy response to these issues then again for for us we think once you get to that place and that these issues move more to the back burner you're going to get back to focusing again um on the real side of the economy and inflation which Still Remains intense and that likely means um some more policy tightening but you know no doubt that this will be a fairly volatile period for at least several more weeks okay so I guess strap up the roller coaster continues to move on thank you very much gentlemen uh great speaking with you this morning and thank you for the perspective on all the announcements that we've heard overnight we will take a break but before we do that uh president uh murmur conferred the Padma Awards last evening top industrialist Mar manglam birla was among the Padma bhushan awardees the Padma Shri was conferred upon one of the most loved voices in the market Ace investors posthumously we leave you with glimpses from the ceremony
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