저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 글로벌 시장은 긴축 장기화 우려로 불안하며, 최근 인플레이션 재가속(no landing 우려)이 시장의 핵심 리스크다. 거시 데이터 및 연준 전망: 미국 코어 PCE가 시장 예상보다 높게 나와 인플레이션이 예상보다 끈질기다는 우려가 커졌고, 연준의 공격적 긴축 가능성이 주식시장의 단기 리스크로 지목됐다. Yardeni는 최근 쟁점이 연착륙(soft landing) vs 경착륙(hard landing)에서 무착륙(no landing)으로 옮겨갔다고 봤다. 미국 증시 전망: 지난해 약세장의 저점은 10월 12일로 보며, 현재는 강세장으로 판단하지만 V자 반등이 아닌 U자형 회복을 예상했다. 주식이 싸지 않다는 점을 근거로 들었다. S&P 500은 50일 이동평균선 바로 아래까지 내려왔고, 200일 이동평균선까지는 추가 하락 여지가 크지 않다고 언급했다. 금리 전망: 연준이 금리 인하를 고려하지 않는다고 명확히 밝혔기 때문에, 시장이 금리 인하 시점을 찾는 것은 의미가 없다고 봤다. 최종금리(terminal rate)는 5.25%로 예상했으며, 현재 시장 기대치는 5.4% 수준이다. 금리가 그 수준에 곧 도달한 뒤 장기간 유지될 것으로 보며, 이는 머니마켓 수익률이 높아 주식시장을 압박할 것이라고 봤다. 인도 vs 중국: 장기 투자자에게 중국보다 인도가 유리하다는 기존 견해를 유지했다. 중국은 인구 고령화와 감소, 인도는 젊은 인구와 민주주의 체제를 근거로 들었다. 다만 인도는 여전히 신흥국이라 연준 정책과 달러 강세의 영향을 크게 받는다고 봤다. 리스크: 연준의 추가 금리 인상과 달러 강세가 신흥국 증시에 부담이다. 인플레이션 무착륙 시나리오가 결국 더 큰 경기 침체(hard landing)로 이어질 수 있다고 경고했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기적으로 변동성이 클 것이며 금리 고점 우려가 지속될 것이고, 중장기적으로는 인도 성장 스토리가 유효하다는 취지다.
다듬은 글
day at around 8 30 we will do a fundamental stock check of on markets with prakash Divan who will be with us on the program all right so let's begin the show then on the equity side first up we have Chetan state of nomura who says talks for softer again this past week as recent U.S data surprises caused significant uncertainty on the near-term U.S data and thus the trajectory of U.S inflation growth in the FED Outlook to add to the surprises he said this past week the U.S core pce came in even higher than the already elevated Street expectations this reading in his view will likely further raise Market concerns that inflation is proving to be stickier than expected and likely a more aggressive fed and thus a near-term risk coming in for equities all right it's a money market view views as well be president of ICC Bank sales is activity data in the U.S continued to surprise on the upside terminal rate and front-end curves were reprized higher triggering broad-based dollar strength he says the rupee was supported by improved external Outlook owing to healthy Services export might now trade with weakening bias against the dollar tracking calling em currencies he expects the dollar INR to trade in a range of between 82.4 to 83.4 to a dollar with likely RBI intervention to keep it within the range all right and on the bones B prasanna says Global yields remain elevated as strong economic data and resilient inflation prints led to expectations of higher for longer terminal rates he says domestic yields also came under pressure despite favorable demand Supply Outlook as inflation Outlook appears Grim resulting in possibility of more hikes by the MPC he expects bonds to trade cautiously with the 10-year Benchmark bond yield ranging between 7.3 to 7.5 percent all right uh well ediardini is with us now president at yardini research an so once again I mean Global markets are looking uh problematic aren't they is the U.S starting another leg down in your opinion yet Ed I don't know if it's a leg down I think that this has been a volatile Market since last year last year we had a bear Market I still think the October 12th low was the low in that bear Market I think we're in a bull market but it's not going to be a v-shaped uh bull market more like a u-shape probably mostly because stocks aren't exactly cheap but to answer your question directly I think what really has changed during February is a perception that instead of arguing over soft Landing versus hard Landing we have to now consider no landing and I think what the Market's concerned about recently is an inflationary no Landing which would just be a long way to a hard Landing after all because the FED would have to raise interest rates uh much higher to get inflation down so what do you think Ed is the end game for this in terms of what the equity Market participants should expect if interest rates are moving higher if there is a recession coming through growth is slowing down um do you think that Equity markets have priced most of that in already or do you think there's more to go on the downside especially for a market like India yeah well in the U.S we were down just below our 50-day moving average uh it's not going to take much more of a fall to get to the 200-day moving average uh my thinking is that uh we're going to see quite a bit of volatility uh around the world including India uh mostly because uh the FED is driving uh concerns about still higher interest rates look the FED has made it very clear they're not even thinking about lowering interest rates so I don't know why the market continues to try to figure out when rates are coming down I think at this point we just have to figure out the terminal rate and I still think it might be five and a quarter percent though the markets are at 5.4 percent but whatever it is I think it's going to happen pretty soon and then I think it's going to stay there which is going to keep the markets I think under some lid pressure from the the fact that you can get some pretty good return in the money markets all right uh hi Mr Adney good morning uh you know in the past you've said that long-term investors who are looking at Emerging Markets they'd rather be in India than China do you hold on to that view and do you think bulk of that China reopening trade has played out well I I think that uh a lot of this is going to be related to the geopolitical situation and the geopolitical situation is more and more favorable for investors to look at India as an important growth Market uh there's been a lot of Articles recently about the relative demographics that China's demography is rapidly aging and the population is slowing actually declining and then in India I mean well you still have a growing population that's relatively young with a within a democracy so I think India is continuing to get a lot of very positive buzz but it is an emerging economy at this point I know Modi would like to make it a a developed economy and that's a great ambition but I think at this point as an Emerging Market uh it gets buffeted around by what the fed's doing and what the dollar is doing so as you folks said uh concerns about the the FED having to raise rates some more causing dollar to go up which is not a good environment for emerging markets all right well we will leave it at that Ed thanks a lot for giving us a quick take on what the global setup is looking like not looking very good at the moment of course but let's see how things progress from here so we do have a weak Global Handover and our own markets have also been under pressure what does that mean for individual stocks we take a quick commercial break on the other side of the break our entire team will be with us to help us prep for the trading day stay tuned foreign
Comments 0