저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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Mobius는 인도에 여전히 매우 강세이며 인도 투자 열정이 커졌다고 밝힘. 아데이니 사태는 기업지배구조 문제로 보기엔 심각하지 않고, 부채비율 50% 초과 기업은 투자하지 않는다는 원칙을 재확인함. 하지만 은행 익스포저 우려로 은행주에는 신중한 입장. 포트폴리오: 대만 비중이 가장 크나 인도로 이동 중이며 인도가 2순위 비중. 기준은 자기자본이익률 20% 이상, 부채비율 50% 미만, 이익성장. 소프트웨어, 의료 진단(검사), 인프라 관련 기업을 선호. 종목: 메트로폴리스 랩스 하락 후 추가매수 의향(코로나 외 검사 사업 성장 15% 목표). 퍼시스턴트 시스템즈, 아폴로 튜브스도 주요 보유. IT: 인도 IT 비중을 소폭 줄였으나 보유 유지·추가 매수 기회 탐색. 장기적으로 인도가 반도체 생산국이 될 것으로 전망. 거시: 미국 CPI 발표를 앞두고 금리와 인플레이션은 주식시장과 상관관계가 낮다고 봄. 연준은 정치적 고려로 공격적 금리인상을 꺼릴 것으로 예상. 금은 중국·러시아 매수로 강세. 전망: 올해는 신흥국 증시의 해이며 신흥국이 미국·선진국 증시를 상회할 것으로 봄. 러시아산 저렴한 에너지 수혜도 언급. 리스크: 대만해협 군사 충돌이 아시아 최대 위험. 글로벌 해킹으로 인한 통신망 붕괴도 리스크로 지목. 인도는 상대적으로 안전하다고 평가. 은행: 아데이니 관련 은행 부실 가능성으로 은행주 신중. 아데이니가 자본을 조달해 은행 부채를 갚을 수 있는지가 관건.
다듬은 글
we're back here watching us here on halftime reporting it's time for an extremely uh special and exclusive conversation that we're having with Mark Mobius who's the founder at Mobius Capital Partners joining us now Mark always a pleasure speaking with you and it's the first time that you're speaking to US Post the announcement of the Union budget as well so just wanted your thoughts on uh where you are positioned on India right now you have been a long-term India lover uh a lot has happened we've seen you know the budget being announced markets being in a bit of a range at the same time the adani crisis unfolding so to say as well with all these things what are your thoughts well we're still very bullish on India as you know I've been a fan I've been here for quite a long time but that uh incitement that I have about India has actually increased as a matter of fact uh my partner Carlos hoffenberg is in India right now uh looking at companies and looking for bargains and the adani thing is not really uh very important from our point of view in terms of looking at India because uh first of all uh that situation was not a very serious uh problem in terms of corporate governance yes they could have done a better job in corporate governance but generally speaking a lot of the information that was revealed by Hindenburg was pretty well known by the market so in addition uh the fact that it's such a big company uh gave the world a notice that India has large companies and companies that are able to raise incredible amount of capital so on this one side it's quite a positive message for India although maybe not the right one in the long term but in the short term I think it's been a good one but it also gives us a warning that we've got to look at companies that have too much debt and in our case we will not touch a company that has a debt Equity of over 50 so we're still very positive India we're finding lots of good bargains okay welcome to the show in that context then uh what is your allocation towards India at this point in time vis-a-vis said a quarter ago and if you are looking at the Mandate of no debt what might your sector allocation be currently within the Indian market oh yes right now in our funds the largest allocation is Taiwan but we are actually reducing that in favor of India so you're going to see India coming up India is the second largest allocation in our portfolio and the strategy as I said is to look for companies with a high return on Capital uh over 20 and a debt Equity of less than 50 and of course earnings growth and we're finding the best opportunities uh in software companies to begin with and in companies that are in the medical era particularly medical testing and finally in companies that do products that can contribute to the infrastructure requirements of India because you know India is going to be accelerating the infrastructure spending and we want to be participating in that hmm okay that's interesting I want to take that discussion forward on software companies Mark pleasure having you on the show I noticed that in your sectoral breakdown you've actually reduced your weightage on it it's now at a little over 50 compared to I think about 58 in early Jan uh is that a fair way to look at it that you're perhaps a bit cautious on the Indian tech companies after what's happening of course there is the possibility of an impending recession globally as well uh how would you approach I.T now in the scheme of things uh no we're still very excited about I.T in India and we of course you know the portfolio ratings will vary according to the prices of the companies that the prices go down of course the allocation looks like it's being reduced but in fact we are continuing to hold IIT companies and increase look for better opportunities further down the line uh I believe that India is going to become an important producer of semiconductors and all the companies related to semiconductors will be interesting semiconductor testing semiconductive materials etc etc but that's further down the line right now it's really software you know I'm looking at uh the three macros that you spoke about software Healthcare Diagnostics as well as uh stocks related to infra place and this ties in with your three largest individual stock Holdings as well you have persistent systems you have Metropolis labs and you have Apollo tubes as well um Metropolis we had the management uh join us yesterday and they said that you know while their covet testing was down 88 year on year uh X of all the covet related and uh non-linear businesses they are targeting 15 growth going forward with margins uh being maintained as well so after the dip that you've seen does it tempt you to buy a little more of metropolis uh yes it does uh you know it's very interesting to note that many people were looking at the covet testing and thinking oh that's everything and therefore uh when that's over the metropolis and other testing companies will be in trouble and of course that was not true and you can see how the stock has been recovering as a result of people realizing that hey these testing companies were not only about covet but about many other things and I believe going forward that uh incredible growth in earnings will justify us buying more of metropolis and looking at other such opportunities okay well Mark you know we have you at an opportune time because we do have the January CPI data from the US which is out this evening and uh the street is anticipating that if it's a flat number on a month-and-month basis then uh there could be some amount of trepidition which could emerge in the U.S markets what is your reading in terms of how important this piece of data is what are you expecting from the FED henceforth well first of all I think it's important to note that uh the interest rate uh uh Continuum and also inflation numbers really do not correlate very highly with the stock market sometimes interest rates go up inflation goes up and the market does well and sometimes the opposite of course recently we've seen the opposite happening uh so that's the first thing at the end of the day the FED is really in trouble because on the one side with an election coming up I must remember that the FED is a political organization the people that are appointed to the FED uh have political ties so they don't want the current Administration to be in trouble with a bad economy and therefore they're going to be very very cautious about raising interest rates too aggressively of course if they want to get down to that two percent number but they're far away from that and they're just hope thing that that CPI number at least moves sideways and they can have time until the election to keep the economy on even killed but do you get a sense Mark that this could be a year of subpar returns for Global equities including Emerging Markets like India I ask that because we are still in a rate hiking cycle I mean no one knows which way it's going to go and uh you know you have a growth slowdown coming through as well an impending recession at such a time do you think equities could take a back seat perhaps more money moving into other asset classes like gold debt Etc and what's your own prognosis on how things could shape up for emerging markets as well well as you know gold is doing quite well because of the buying like China and Russia uh probably in anticipation of trying to establish another uh currency that would be uh competing with the U.S as a reserve currency but at the end of the day it's equities and now it's emerging model its equities as you know Emerging Markets are now beginning to outperform uh the U.S market and develop markets generally and we believe that's going to continue going forward uh more and more people are beginning to realize these emerging countries like India are doing very very well they're growing at an incredible pace and because of the Ukraine war they're getting Russian oil and gas cheap and of course that's very positive for many of these countries particularly India who are importing their fuel and energy so I think uh it's the year of emerging markets and a lot of investors in America who are scared about the U.S market are beginning to realize that what do you see as the potential risk to equities around the world and Emerging Markets India in particular and were those risks to play out what is the potential downside that you foresee well the big risk in Asia in uh East Asia you talk about Taiwan Korea and those countries is something happening uh in Taiwan with China uh trying to take over Taiwan in a military effort that is a huge huge risk I'm not predicting that something will happen tomorrow but that is a big risk and of course in that case India begins to look very very safe it's far away from that kind of conflict and in fact India would probably benefit from such such an unfortunate situation so that's one of the big big problems facing us and then globally another problem is uh the entire internet uh global telecommunications system uh a breakdown as a result of hackers and a result of crypto hacking taking place could be a real problem going forward but that's a global phenomenon that would affect everyone okay Mark just a quick question from my end and the last one the adani issue you said it's not that critical from a larger context but are you worried about a spillover that it could have on the Banking and Financial space is that something which could be a concern oh definitely it's something of a great concern and that's the reason why we've been very very cautious about banking stocks generally because we believe that probably a lot of things on their books that would create you know bad numbers for the banks but uh at the end of the day it all depends on how fast adani can move up and raise Capital at the end of the day they have to raise equity in order to help pay off those debts those Bank debts yeah okay well Mark it was a pleasure speaking with you thank you so much for joining us and uh it's great to hear that you're still very bullish on India despite all the challenges that we've seen it's music through the years of Indian investors for sure hope to speak to you again very soon thank you all right that's Mark Mobius saying that they're looking for good Bargains in India and software and medical testing is something that they are excited about in fact they're quite excited about tech companies and the fall that they've seen recently looking to buy over there let's slip into a short break on the other side a commodity segment will bring you excerpts of a conversation with Ranjit Rath the chairman and MB of oil India stay tuned foreign
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