🏆 RAY DALIO - NUR 5 ETFS UND DU GEWINNST IMMER! 💎 RAY DALIO ALLWETTER PORTFOLIO 💎 RAY DALIO DEPOT

요약 보기

레이 달리오의 '올웨더 포트폴리오'를 소개하며 상관관계 전략으로 변동성을 줄이는 방법을 설명한다. 핵심 개념: 경제 4계절(성장·인플레이션 가속/둔화 조합)에 따라 자산군이 다르게 움직이므로 분산하면 안정적 수익을 얻을 수 있다고 주장. 포트폴리오 구성: MSCI 올컨트리 월드 지수형 ETF(선진국 23개·신흥국 26개), 20년 만기 미국채 ETF, 3~7년 단기 미국채 ETF, 금 현물 연동 ETF(XETRA Gold), 상품(원자재) 스왑 기반 ETF(금 약 17.7% 비중, 가스·대두·원유·은·곡물 포함) 등 5개 ETF. 수치: 12개월 백테스트 수익률 21.6%, 전체 시장이 5% 하락 시 포트폴리오는 2~3% 하락 수준을 기대. 전체 비용비율 약 0.4%(미달러 표시로 환율 리스크 있음), 운용자산 약 13억 4,700만 달러. 진행자 의견: 채권 보유에는 비판적이며 주식 ETF나 금 위주가 낫다고 봄. 달러 표시 때문에 유로 투자자에게는 환율 리스크가 있어 개선 여지가 있다고 언급. 금은 5~10% 기본 헤지 비중 제안(투자 권유 아님). 코로나 위기처럼 모든 자산이 동반 하락하면 전략이 무력할 수 있다고 경고. 대상 자산 예측: 명시적인 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언 없음. 금·채권 등은 장기 헤지 관점의 언급. 영상 내 홍보: 증권사 계좌 개설 혜택(보너스, 수수료 할인)을 소개하며 구독·댓글을 유도.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. "Just five ETFs and you always win" – that 's a statement from Radio, and with that, we'll take a look at his so-called " all-weather portfolio," what it contains, how the ETFs are structured, and how you can replicate this strategy exactly. As always, I'm giving away a €50 Amazon voucher to one of the most active viewers if you comment on this video.

02. It would really help me if you shared it, as we're growing steadily here on the channel and have already uploaded several videos on wealth building and portfolio analyses. As always, I'd be interested to know what your three top ETF favorites are – what are your two largest portfolio positions? Feel free to write them in the comments.

03. And what do you think of my overall winner? If you want to start an ETF savings plan or buy individual solar stocks, check out the info box below. I've compared over 20 online brokers for you here on the channel, and this is by far the absolute overall winner. I only have two more recommendations. Included, you'll receive a €20 bonus on your first securities savings plan.

04. Now, let's start with the basic idea: Radio essentially advocates a correlation strategy. Correlation might sound complicated at first, but it simply means that different asset classes—for example, bonds are an asset class, stocks are an independent asset class, or commodities— develop differently. This means that in good market phases, when we experience a boom or economic growth is imminent, gold is generally not as popular, but stocks, especially those from emerging or industrialized countries, rise very sharply.

05. Radio utilizes precisely these correlations with its all-weather portfolio to generate the most balanced return possible. This doesn't mean you'll achieve the maximum return with this all-weather portfolio, but you won't experience nearly as sharp a fall as with other portfolios. This means that regardless of the current economic climate, you'll always have a relatively constant return with this portfolio.

06. This naturally makes the whole thing interesting for those who do n't want to take on too much risk. Of course, if everything falls, then this correlation theory won't work either. We saw that in the Corona crisis; such an all-weather portfolio wouldn't really be advantageous then. Gold, on the other hand, rose during that crisis, so one could relativize this topic again.

07. But to briefly address this again, he now assumes four seasons in the markets: firstly, accelerated economic growth and accelerated inflation; secondly, an accelerated economic growth phase with slowed inflation; and thirdly, slowed economic growth and accelerated inflation. And then, of course, with slowed inflation.

08. That means if we have slowed economic growth, we are generally very strongly positioned in assets like gold, commodities, or gold, for that matter. Bonds are also generally strongly positioned. Interest rates are often lower during periods of slowed economic growth. Even reduced, that also means bonds.

09. We always do the opposite of the market interest rate; when interest rates go down, bond prices rise. This is another way to profit from these bonds during slower economic growth. With accelerated economic growth, it's obvious that stocks perform well, especially emerging markets. But perhaps corporate bonds and gold are n't the best investment when the stock market is rising.

10. Now, to briefly describe the most important thing: what five ETFs are there? Here, we'll use a very nice all-country ETF, namely the MSV Country World Index. This is essentially a very large SPD RTF that now tracks over 46, or even 49, country indices: 23 from developed markets and 26 from emerging markets.

11. This makes the ETF very interesting because, as we know, the MSV World, for example, only invests in developed markets. The E-World Emerging Markets ETF focuses solely on emerging markets, and it essentially combines both emerging and developed markets into a single ETF. The total expense ratio is approximately 0.4 percent, although it's denominated in US dollars, so there is a currency risk.

12. However, with a portfolio size of 1.347 billion, it 's a substantial fund. The physical replication method with optimized sampling is also very strong, as it doesn't rely on trading. Consequently, this ETF invests very broadly, providing a perfect indication of market upswings. You can then profit relatively well from this ETF.

13. This is the first ETF designed for the boom phase, the economic upswing. Now we come to the second ETF, the iShares Treasury Bond, specifically a 20- year bond. This is the first online iShares ETF included in the portfolio. The rationale behind this is that the author has repeatedly emphasized this in portfolio theory.

14. So, bonds are generally considered less risky than stocks, and because in practice, a bond can probably be relatively risky – but that's another topic – what's important here are 20-year bonds, so you can profit even in these market phases. On the other hand, we also have short-term bonds, namely the iShares US-dollar Treasury bond with maturities of three to seven years.

15. And what I really welcome and can only recommend is PetraGold XetraGold, which is an investment in gold with paper, so to speak. You can buy it in your portfolio just like a stock. Of course, I have to say again that I'm not necessarily advising anyone to invest in paper gold, but it's possible, and I'm generally a fan of gold.

16. That means you should always have a basic position as a hedge, and that's how it should be understood for bad times. Many talk about five to ten percent. Of course, this is not investment advice. This isn't a recommendation, just my personal opinion. Of course, as always, you are 100% responsible for your own decisions.

17. And importantly, I find this very interesting, and I've taken a closer look at it for you. We also have a commodities ETF, meaning it doesn't just focus on gold when it comes to commodities, but it also includes an iShares ETF, a diversified commodities ETF. However, the whole thing is swap-based, which means we have to acknowledge the risk of default.

18. Generally, such swap transactions are hedged, but what I also noticed is that we 're again primarily invested in gold at 17.74%. They invest in 100- ounce units, so to speak. Then we also have gas, soybeans, oil, and silver included. Accordingly, this is another way to profit from commodities. Grain, for example, is also included, so minerals in the agricultural landscape.

19. So, that concludes... Five ETFs, so you see, these are n't the cheapest ETFs either, you can't say that. Especially the commodity ETFs, which are relatively expensive. But with five ETFs, you have your entire strategy. And the nice thing is, you can see here, for example, that in the 12-month backtest, it made a gain of 21.6 percent.

20. But of course, due to the coronavirus crisis, such a portfolio isn't necessarily the absolute winner, but it's not the absolute loser either. That means if you include such building blocks in a strategy, if you've also invested in gold or commodities, then it helps you tremendously, even if things go down.

21. Let's say the entire market falls by 5 percent, then it's already a strong performance if your portfolio only falls by 3 percent or 2 percent, or even, in the best-case scenario, doesn't fall at all. That's why I find Radio's approach very interesting. However, what I always say is that I personally don't think much of bonds; I don't own any bonds myself.

22. ETFs, I'm personally a bit critical of that. Of course, they're always intended as a hedge, but if the markets, and especially if you 're convinced of economic growth and believe that innovations will continue and that there will continue to be good companies, then I personally think I'd invest my money in equity ETFs or, as a hedge, only in commodities like gold, for example.

23. That 's my point of criticism. Otherwise, you could, of course, say, "Yes, I have a cheaper ETF." You could certainly make it a bit cheaper with one or two other ETFs. Certainly, the US dollar weighting is also a disadvantage. Of course, the US dollar is American, which means that, ultimately, it's clear that they are primarily listed in US dollars.

24. But for you as a European, or rather as a German, it's obviously better if you don't have currency risk. That means I would perhaps also resort to a more volatile version. And those would be my starting points for how I would optimize this strategy a bit further. As always, you'll find a provider in the info box below where you can...

25. You can also save with these five ETFs, or rather, I've included them as my second recommendation. You even get a €20 bonus there. And regardless of whether you already have a provider, the most important thing is always to keep track of the costs. Even if you only order €10 for fun, because then you've invested in these ETFs once, or as a savings plan, you get 15 percent per execution.

26. Because with my provider, you can even do it for free, which I think is already very valuable. So, write your opinion on the five ETFs in the comments. Have you perhaps already saved with or bought one of these ETFs? What do you generally think of Radio? Do you find this person very interesting, or what makes them so interesting to you?

27. And would you also use this strategy, or would you, like me, have a much better one? And of course, we would all be happy if you shared this strategy with us. How much do you currently have in your portfolio? Which ones are included in your portfolio? So, don't forget to subscribe. We've also analyzed Darius' portfolio; this video will be coming here in the future.

28. We'll be looking at other depot analyses and stock market strategies, so it's definitely worth becoming part of the community here. I look forward to your comments, and see you next time!