저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2025년은 전통금융의 블록체인 이전이 본격화되는 해이며, 스테이블코인이 크립토의 돌파 제품이라는 주장. 이더리움이 월가 인프라의 기반이 되어 60,000달러까지 갈 수 있고(현재 약 4,500달러, 약 15배), 2030년 크립토 생태계 27조 달러 전망, 비트코인 공정가치 150~210만 달러 제시. 토큰화 주식(엔비디아, 테슬라) 확대가 시장 효율성을 높인다고 봄.
다듬은 글
in Ethereum. I think the moment is really this year because this is the year that Wall Street and governmental regulations became friendly to think about rebuilding on the blockchain. And part one of course was the stable coins and stable coins have really been the breakout hit in crypto. I would we coined it as the chat GPT moment for crypto because it has become a breakout product.
I think that there is a lot of there there to Ethereum being the the base where Wall Street is going to build a lot of the future. I think Ethereum can reach 60,000 per token in that world and that would proportionally benefit the debts because Ethereum is around 4,500 today. So a 15 times increase plus the NAV expansion.
So, uh, there would be a lot of upside in the existing appearing treasury stocks in that world and many would become multiple hundreds of billions of dollars market cap. Ethereum is setting up for its most powerful run yet. With Wall Street warming to blockchain, Ethereum is projected to reach $60,000 per coin, a 15x increase that could reshape the entire crypto market.
That's the latest insight from Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Adviserss and chairman of Bitine Immersion Technologies. In a discussion with Kathy Wood, CEO of ArchInvest, Tom Lee explained that 2025 could be the year traditional finance begins migrating onto blockchain with Ethereum at the center.
He sees its value climbing to $60,000 as trillions in capital flow through the network. Kathy Wood agrees that the transition is accelerating, but emphasizes that Bitcoin remains the lasting store of value while Ethereum drives the digital infrastructure being built around it. Stick around until the end of the video where Tom Lee and Kathy would break down how 2025 could mark the biggest shift yet for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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You'll receive a $100 bonus and start growing your assets the smart way. Click the link below to open your account now and begin your journey toward generational wealth. Overstock was probably the only way someone could buy Bitcoin in the past. Um and then then Micro Strategy came along. So Micro Strategy is almost 2.0 as Bitcoin treasury.
What he's done successfully, of course, is really to upscale it so rapidly because he went from having $2 of Bitcoin per share to over $250 per Bitcoin share per Micro Strategy share today. So, he has created enormous shareholder returns because the security business of course has continued to to really muddle long at basically zero growth in Ethereum.
I think the moment is really this year because this is the year that Wall Street and governmental regulations became friendly to think about rebuilding on the blockchain. And part one of course was the stable coins and stable coins have really been the breakout hit in crypto. I would we coined it as the chat GPT moment for crypto because it has become a breakout product and it has created two enormous companies.
one being Circle, which I know ARC was an anchor investor in the IPO, and the other is Tether. Tether today is raising money at $500 billion valuation and roughly 300 employees. That's about $1.7 billion of market value per employee. Now, Bitcoin is at about what is it 2.4 trillion now somewhere around there.
And Ethereum is 540 billion. you think there is a flipping as they might say. Uh I'd love to hear you talk about it but uh just to set this up and anyone who's listening to this podcast knows that um we have in 2030 a forecast of the entire crypto asset ecosystem. And of course we're going to be modifying this with time.
We're doing our our big ideas work now. that as of uh our last um go at this, you know, the ecosystem we expect to hit $25 trillion in 2030. The vast majority of that uh in Bitcoin uh mostly because we we look at Bitcoin as, you know, a a global monetary system, you know, rules-based that uh we've been missing since the US went off the gold exchange standard in 1971.
That's a very big idea. It's a technology uh obviously and it is the first of its kind and we wrote a paper in 2016 on this first of its kind in a new asset class. So those are three very big ideas. Um I'd love to hear your thoughts on why ETH uh or the ecosystem will will surpass Okay. Well, if I could rewind a little bit to 1971, uh, in our chairman's message last month, we addressed how gold versus Wall Street grew post 1971.
So 1971 was when Nixon formally withdrew the US from the gold standard. The immediate beneficiary was there was demand and a market to own gold. And so people would say that was your, you know, first implication. But when what we wrote about and talked about in our message was that in 1971 the dollar became fully synthetic because it was no longer backed by anything and so there was risk that the world would go off the dollar standard.
So instepped Wall Street to create products to propagate the future of Wall Street including and we listed I think 14 products that emerged over the next decade from money market funds to credit to mortgage back securities to futures etc. And dollar dominance by the end of that period went from 27% of GDP terms but to 57% of central bank reserves and 80% of financial transaction quotes.
So, Wall Street was created products that made the dollar dominant and the market cap of equities um today is 40 trillion compared to 2 trillion for gold. So, in other words, gold is 5% of all available assets. And so, in 2025, we think everything is now becoming synthetic as we or tokenized, sorry, not synthetic.
So, as we move not just dollars onto the blockchain, which is stable coins, but we'll move stocks and real estate, dollar dominance is going to be the opportunity of Ethereum. So, digital gold is Bitcoin. And so, in that world, we believe Ethereum could flip Bitcoin similar to how Wall Street and equities flipped gold um post 71.
Now, that is just our working theory because I am still a Bitcoin bull. So, I'm very bullish on Bitcoin and I I believe your uh targets for Bitcoin are actually reachable. So, I you know, we think Bitcoin fair value should at least be 1.5 to 2.1 million, but we could see higher values, but that would of course provide upside to a a neutral smart contract platform where a lot of Wall Street will innovate of real world assets.
One of the thoughts here is, you know, Ethereum went from proof of work to proof of stake. Now, in the next 5 years, I mean, we just think about all of the creativity that is going to evolve in the financial markets around Ethereum, and we totally agree with you on that. Uh but there will come a time where we're in some kind of crisis and then we see that the benefits of proof of work relative to proof of stake because you're bringing in as you say you are bringing in a lot of tradi and a tradfi thinking into the Ethereum world.
So just wondering you know if if a crisis will be a moment of self-reflection and like all right is there a real difference between this proofof work world and this proofofstake world. Yes, there is existential questions that will emerge on proof of stake, but it's also I think going to happen with proof of work because we know Bitcoin mining for instance has become is becoming concentrated in corporate.
Uh, in fact, I think this year there was one mining operation that actually has had won six successive block rewards, which is a high level of concentration. And as you know, as we get closer to 2140, the block reward is going to be so small that it may not provide the economic incentives to actually continue mining, which would represent greater concentration.
Tom Lee still considers Bitcoin as digital gold, but views Ethereum as the engine of the new financial world. Just as equities once overtook gold in importance, he believes 2025 marks the beginning of a similar shift with Wall Street building its digital infrastructure on Ethereum. Stable coins have already proven that blockchain networks can support trillions in daily transactions.
Despite concerns over staking participation, Ethereum's flawless uptime and rapid institutional adoption demonstrate that it's ready to handle the massive scale of global finance. I think that there is a lot of there there to Ethereum being the the base where Wall Street is going to build a lot of the future.
As you know, corporate chains are always going to be viewed as fat fingers. Someone's spat finger on the scale and that's just how Wall Street operates anyways. you know, if some bank created a a layer 1 blockchain and they're the oracle, we know that they're tilting that in their favor. Um, and of course, the second is is that all blockchains are basically databases and the security model becomes a question because it's either a centralized chain, which isn't really a blockchain, or it's got a security model that can be exploited.
And we know there's so many high-profile hacks that have taken place. And of time is a third dimension because as you know that is one of the prominent features of Ethereum that it's an entire history resilience was an existing feature and it's never had any downtime and I think that that's important when we're thinking about a world of high-speed transactions in a 24/7 world.
I think a lot of creativity needs to take place on layer ones and you know I mean to me if we as we think about tokenized world and using prediction markets a lot of that thinking is taking place around building on layer ones and layer twos on Ethereum. But a broader statement I'd make is I I don't think one blockchain can hold the entire financial system anyways cuz let's say year 27 trillion is correct and I believe it is even conservative because today global GDP is 80 trillion and we know GDP is a imperfect measurement because it only measures final sales.
So let's say it measures 120 trillion of gross activity is what 80 trillion is measuring. Financial system ledger is 120 trillion on the other side of that. If just half moves onto the blockchain of the financial transaction that's a you know 60 trying market plus we know that as you tokenize loyalty and IP things that are GDP measurements but not financial markets that's also on the blockchain.
So maybe the total what's ends up on the blockchain is 60 plus 20 80 trillion market versus your 27 trillion that cannot fit on one ledger. And then there's a third element which I know you guys talk about which is you know as we try to offset wage loss from AI we will want to have a a record of taxing agentic activities to replace that lost revenue and that's a huge accounting system that is really working on public chains and so uh yeah so 27 trillion seems very reasonable you know I mean maybe low stats fundamentally trade off the value underlying and so moving it to 24/7 is just a conven convenience transaction.
It's not transformational um because it doesn't unlock anything new. But tokenizing an Nvidia or a Tesla is very appealing. Kathy and I have talked about this in the past that the real value and the unlock of a tokenized Nvidia is that we can do a factor bet. we can then see what's priced in for their Blackwell chip sales or their China sales because now you take Nvidia's price and you've broken it into tokenized components and then you can use a prediction market to hedge yourself.
So, oh, uh, Fed Fed's replaced or the Fed does a surprise hike. I can hedge a tokenized equity that way. The issuer has huge transparency. Nvidia now knows what's priced in for its Blackwell chip sales, its China sales, and they can therefore work with a lot less, hey, what's priced in our stock. They know exactly what's priced in.
So, I think tokenized equities is a huge unlock, and it's it's useful for investors and for issuers. And of course, loots us away from quarterly earnings, too. Yeah, it does. Do you think the administration that part of the talk about changing quarterly earnings and so forth might incorporate this sort of thinking?
I would say I wouldn't be surprised because as you know the administration has a lot of folks tied into Silicon Valley and we know that the betting the prediction markets were so useful in that election. They proved themselves. Poly market got 50 out of 50 states right. So, I would would agree because that's probably a better way to model earnings than to wait every 90 days for a company and have the CFO tied up for a month sitting in a room, you know, auditing financial.
You know, this is music to our ears. We We're all about transparency, right? Yeah, that's right. I I think this would be a really important step uh in making markets a lot clearer for investors and understanding what they own. It makes it less blackbox. And so that's why I think tokenization is is a huge deal.
No question about it. This is our big battle. It would help our strategy enormously because it would take the FUD, fear, uncertainty and doubt. Really uh a a lot of that is caused by analysts uh you know listening to the companies you know they've followed for years and years and years uh who are saying oh off with their heads you know that's our installed base.
No way. Uh and it would getting the betting markets involved and and and getting more people thinking about it just thinking about it. That's all we need you know uh would be a boon for efficiency of the market. The markets are highly inefficient right now. Highly ine Yeah. It's basically and yeah 100% agree because today the equilibrium of the stock price is like we have to take everything that you guys just said and put it into a single unit of a price.
But in a tokenized world there's equilibrium for different components and 100% I mean like a Tesla anequal company it's very difficult for the markets to price equilibrium because Elon Musk is changing dynamically the future but we're now having to price it in and based on deliveries of units sold last quarter
well and it's also time horizon as well right now you know the collapse in the time horizons to one quarter if that certainly certainly in 22 and and just generally because of benchmark sensitivity has really um I think hurt capital allocation in a big big way you know and and and and could hurt us competitively as a nation especially now that China is you know they're not hostage to the same kinds of constraints uh so yeah this could be amazing
yeah I would love to see the US embrace this idea can I used to ask a question that was really plaguing Ethereum for a while until its recent very dramatic turn in price and that was oh you know it's the layer 2s that are collecting all the fees the layer 1 is you know really being disadvantaged the network activity is falling giving way to the layer twos so uh just to help people understand I think it was a real question when ether was falling relative to bitcoin dramatically and no one wanted to bet on it even though these institutions were basically signing on to Ethereum.
To me, it was such a big disconnect. But so now we have the term, but what about that issue? Yeah, we have to think of Ethereum as the monetary bait and the standard. So let's say in a I'm being really theoretical in a quote world where the L2s pay zero gas fees, okay, to the L1, which is not true. the fact that Ethereum is the monetary base would actually acrue value to it.
It's the same reason someone saying, "Hey, look, we trade stock all day and it's quoted in dollars, but we don't pay the US dollar system to exist." We would be right. The fact that Nvidia trades in the US helps the dollar. So that's why even if there was no exchange between the two, it acrrews value.
But of course, we know that they're trying to fix that. And so L2s want to support L1's. And of course in the future any bank that is going to be building on on the future of Ethereum is going to be staking Ethereum as well. Yes. And I think the more layer twos that evolve the more important the underlying becomes.
Right. I think that's right. I believe Micro Strategy will be one of the largest companies in America because of its Bitcoin holding. So it's about 100 billion market cap today. 15 billion of debt. So 115. If Bitcoin goes to two million, then that's going to be a $2 trillion company. And it's because of its holding of Bitcoin, no different than an oil company.
Um, I think Ethereum can reach 60,000 per token in that world. And that would proportionally benefit the debts because Ethereum is around 4,500 today. So, a 15 times increase plus the NAV expansion. So uh there would be a lot of upside in the existing ethering treasury stocks in that world and many would become multiple hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap.
Well, this sounds optimistic future. Tom Lee projects that by 2030 the total crypto ecosystem could reach $27 trillion in value with roughly $5 trillion in equity capital tied to digital asset treasury companies. In this scenario, he expects Ethereum to hit $60,000 per coin and Bitcoin to reach around $2 million, potentially turning firms like Micro Strategy into trillion dollar giants purely through their crypto holding.
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