저자: TomLee · 외국인
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톰 리는 4년 사이클이 깨지고 유동성 주도의 장기 상승장이 이어진다고 주장. 금은 스테이블코인 발행사의 매수 수요로 강세이며, 비트코인은 금을 따라 올라 연말 20만달러 가능성 제시. 이더리움은 1971년식 금융 재편의 수혜주로 장기적으로 21,000달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. S&P500은 내년 20% 조정 가능성, 비트코인은 40% 하락 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Most of the crypto people I speak to expect a four-year cycle and they're adamant, you know, that maybe bit Bitcoin peaks early next year, but as you know, when something is so strongly held, it's very unlikely to be true. So, either Bitcoin's already peaked or we have a longer cycle. I'm more in the camp that it's a longer cycle,
but there would still be 50 plus% draw downs in the future. I'm sure there'll be 50% draw downs because the stock market has more frequent 25% draw downs. I mean that's when even though people realize I mean the stock market's made a lot of progress last 6 years we've had an unusually large number of 25% draw downs.
Mhm. And we probably have another S&P decline to 20% next year. So if the S&P is down 20, you know, Bitcoin could be down 40. The old belief in Bitcoin's 4year cycle is fading. In the past, prices peaked about a year after each having then fell sharply. But 2025 is breaking that pattern. Despite economic headwinds, Bitcoin's strength and growing institutional adoption point to a longer liquiditydriven expansion rather than a simple boom and bust.
Global liquidity has been rising since mid 2023. Even as central banks talk tough, analysts like Tom Lee and Raul Pal note that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the NASDAQ now move closely with liquidity flows. Lee sees 20 40% corrections as normal in a maturing market. Volatility is simply part of the new rhythm shaped by institutional money.
Lee also draws parallels to gold and stock. The SanP 500 continues trending upward despite deep pullbacks and gold's breakout could signal what's next for crypto. As liquidity rotates into hard assets, Lee predicts Bitcoin could hit $200,000 this year while Ethereum enters its own powerful super cycle.
I mean, there's a lot of reasons gold probably is going up. And uh at Fund Strat, we don't do commodities. I kind of regret not recommending gold because it's been so great. I mean, because, you know, like generally I I like to be helping our clients be involved with things that are going up. So, I think gold's move is like
a good strategy. Yeah. Exactly. I I don't want to fight it. And like what kind of business do you have? I help our clients portfolios go up. Yeah. Uh so, gold's been amazing. I I think what's really stood out is that you can explain gold's move by just pure technicals. Like I was talking to our technician Mark Newton yesterday and he says that gold had a cup and handle pattern that the breakout was July of this year.
Mhm. And so the measured move should have taken it up to where it is now. But let's say price leads fundamentals. I think that July is also the time that the stable coin industry started printing a lot more creations and as you know there's been sta gold stable coins and dollar based stable coins but a lot of the dollar based stable coin issuers are over collateralized
so I think the stable coin industry has been printing a lot of dollars they're over collateralized and I think they've been buying a lot of gold so I think that the stable coin industry has been the newest bid for gold more so than even like a China central bank. Yeah, because they've already been present.
The central banks have been present for some time, but there must there's somebody new buying gold on top of the retail buying gold. And I think that would be my guess because, you know, like I I've now there's like seven or eight gold stable coins plus, you know, there's big stable coin issuers and so that could be the bid to gold.
Now, does that mean gold is unlimited on the upside? I don't know. I mean I I I'm not studying it so I don't know but I think it's very bullish for Bitcoin and Ethereum because what well gold is moves first and then Bitcoin catches up. So I think that there is going to be the network value of gold just went up by a lot and so let's say gold settles at 5,000
that puts fair value of Bitcoin you know like 16 to 2 million if it matches gold's network value. So, I think it's actually helping Bitcoin's future terminal price. So, you think that if gold settles at 5,000, Bitcoin, you know, if you take the gold market cap divided by the number of Bitcoin, then you get 1.6 to $2 million per coin.
Uh, what's the time frame for us to get there? Well, I I mean, I can see that in five years for Bitcoin. So, I think years Yeah. Yeah. I think Bitcoin Yeah. I think Bitcoin Bitcoin doesn't get capped by gold. It actually gets pulled up by gold. Mhm. Do you think that on December 31st of 2025 we'll actually look back and could Bitcoin have outperformed gold in 2025 even though it has such a big lead right now?
Yeah, I mean we have a lot of time. We have we have 10 weeks. Um as you know Bitcoin makes its move in 10 days a year. So are Bitcoin's best days in the fourth quarter? Probably because we have catalyst the Fed's easing. We have a shutdown that's been risk off. We have China US tensions that look every time there's a headline on China like Bitcoin takes a gut punch right um because it is money flows and deleveraging
uh so that goes away we have seasonality that favors stocks moving up and stocks moving helps Bitcoin so to me uh the chances of Bitcoin having a huge fourth quarter are really high and not all of these would be tailwind ones for gold. So, I you know, I wouldn't count I still think it's possible for Bitcoin to hit 200,000 by the end of the year.
And what about the four-year cycle? Do you think that that holds or do you think that that was something that was broken by the institutional participation in the ETFs? Well, most of the crypto people I speak to expect a four-year cycle and they're adamant, you know, that maybe bit Bitcoin peaks early next year.
But as you know, when something is so strongly held, it's very unlikely to be true. So either Bitcoin's already peaked or we have a longer cycle. I'm more in the camp that it's a longer cycle, but there would still be 50 plus% draw downs in the future or there kind of cycle is broken and you something different.
Uh yeah, I think I'm sure there'll be 50% draw downs because the the stock market has more frequent 25% draw downs. M I mean that's when even though people realize I mean the stock market's made a lot of progress last 6 years we've had an unusually large number of 25% draw downs. Mhm. And we probably have another S&P decline to 20% next year.
So if the S&P is down 20, you know, Bitcoin could be down 40. This stock rally, you've called it the most hated rally. Uh the recent selloff because of Trump's tweet. Uh you called a flesh wound. Uh you're like uber bullish. I am as well. on bias, but uh why do you think it's so hated? Why like why do these people want the market to go down?
Why do they want the US economy to tank? Yeah, I mean I can empirically show it's the most hated. One of the best measures of of large investor sentiment is the AAI net bulls index. Bulls less bears because it's been run for 40 years. This year it's averaged minus 11.7. So every week the weeks through this year the there's only three other times in the last 40 years it's registered 111.7 1990 or more 1990 2008 and 2022 all were bare market years.
So sentiment reads as if we're in a bare market and the market's up 15% year to date. Um why is it the most hated? I think we show this in our research that it's based on political divide. So the country is 50/50 Republican, Democratic, but in the stock market world, and there's Pew Research uh data on this, 57% of professional money managers are Democratic, 66% of hedge funds are Democratic and something like 69% of venture capital funds are Democratic.
Interesting. So the risk capital world is didn't vote for Trump. So they view his policies as that of a someone who is destabilizing to the economy. In the bond market, it flips. 80% of credit managers are Republican. So that's why this year the bond market hasn't been high yield spreads have been stable, credit spreads have been stable, but the stock market's been volatile.
And you can see it in maybe in the economic commentary this year. How many economists have said, "Oh, tariffs are going to cause a recession or tariffs are going to cause an inflation surge." That is actually a very subjective argument because tariffs are a tax and if we treat it as a tax, taxes are not inflationary.
So, we never say it's inflationary. But the economists who are portraying as inflation are I think it's they're taking a specific view that makes it an inflation argument. So in other words, there's some sort of bias in that statement. Tom Lee connects technicals, liquidity, and structural demand into one clear thesis.
He links gold's breakout not just to macro trends, but to stable coin collateral flows, suggesting issuers are adding gold to their balance sheets and creating steady demand. As gold's network value expands, Lee believes Bitcoin will repric alongside it, potentially reaching $1.60 60 cents to $2 million per coin within 5 years as institutions begin treating both assets as complimentary stores of value.
He also sees Ethereum undergoing its own 1971 moment, similar to when Wall Street reinvented finance after leaving the gold standard. With stable coins, tokenization, and onchain finance now building on Ethereum, Lee argues it's becoming the foundation of a new financial system. As major players like Black Rockck and Goldman Sachs tokenize assets, he expects Ethereum's value to soar with this new digital architecture.
Uh, Bitmine on Monday announced that we're at 3.23 million. So, we're 50% of the way there. Yeah. 2.7% of the Ethereum supply. Okay. Uh, what is the purpose of the business? Just tell us a little bit about it. Uh, well, Bitine is an Ethereum primary strategy is an Ethereum as the treasury asset. It still has a a small Bitcoin mining business as its operating business, but now its primary treasury asset is Ethereum.
And the reason it makes sense to grow the Ethereum holdings is that Ethereum as a smart contract platform with staking means that large holders of Ethereum can benefit from the power law dynamics. meaning uh you can have you can be a benevolent entity in the community helping see DeFi and also as payment rails get built on Ethereum help guide uh that process and so we're working with the Ethereum Foundation today.
Bitmines 2 3.23 million Ethereum tokens makes it the largest holder of Ethereum in the world. More than the Ethereum Foundation, more than other any other single holder. uh when we begin our staking, native staking, uh that's about a 3% yield on roughly 14 billion worth of ETH and that's nearly 500 million of pre-tax income.
That would make Bitmine one of the 800 most profitable companies in America. So it it's basically uh going to be a Russell 1000 company. And for institutional investors, they've put a big allocation into Micro Strategy because that is the way that they get exposure to Bitcoin. But Ethereum we've been writing about is probably in a super cycle similar to what happened to Wall Street in 1971 because in 1971 the US withdrew from the gold standard.
So the dollar became actually synthetic, completely synthetic. So Wall Street stepped in to make sure the dollar stayed the reserve currency. So they built futures, CDs, money markets, and it succeeded because within 10 years, even though the dollar was only 27% of GDP, it became 53% of central bank reserves and 80% of all financial market quotes.
So the yen didn't win, the Deutsch mark didn't win or French Frank. In 2025, [clears throat] we're tokenizing more than just the dollar. The stable coin is the breakout product, which is a tokenized dollar. But as you know, Larry Fank, Robin Hood, they want to tokenize everything on the blockchain, and they're going to build it on a neutral public chain, which is right now 70% of that is happening on Ethereum.
So, Ethereum is experiencing that same 1971 moment where Wall Street's rebuilding everything onto a blockchain, which we think it'll be Ethereum. Ethereum could recover its Bitcoin Ethereum ratios 2021 highs. That would put Ethereum at around 21,000 per token. So, it's a I think an undervalued asset.
And by acquiring more and staking it, we benefit from the power law. And uh so it's been successful so far. Bit mine is uh the 30th most traded stock in America today, trading $2.1 billion a day. Um and it, you know, it benefits from I think our clear communication. We publish a monthly chairman's message that explains our thesis around why Ethereum is in a super cycle and why Bitline is continuing to acquire uh and stake its Ethereum.
to the Bitcoiners who say all of the altcoins are not valuable, how do you kind of talk with through with them uh why they're wrong? You know, I mean, I'm I'm a Bitcoiner myself. Um I think Bitcoin, and we explained this in in our presentation, is digital gold. Uh so, it's storing value and it stores value and it moves value exceptionally well.
I mean, Bitcoin is uh really sound money. I'm a believer in that. But Wall Street is going to be building products and tokenizing products. They're not going to be building on the Bitcoin blockchain, you know, because it they need a smart contract platform. And as [clears throat] you know, uh if you look at whether Salana or Ethereum, if you look at the total value locked, about a third of that value, gross value becomes the intrinsic value of the chain.
like that's been the floor for Salana and Ethereum. You know, the global economy is 80 trillion. Um but it's understating cuz you know GDP is a final uh sales concept. So let's say it's 120 trillion. You can't put 120 trillion onto one public chain. Mhm. Because like the you know the Ethereum would be like you know $20 million because there's just so much value locked up on it.
So there's going to be room for more than one L1. Uh, but Ethereum has been the place that's been capturing more than 2/3 of all the the creations. It's had 100% uptime, but almost every project that's been announced as a layer 2 on Ethereum. So, I mean, it's I'm not I'm not against Salana or Avalanche or these other chains, but uh, as an institutional grade blockchain, Wall Street's building it on Ethereum.
I think crypto really has forced us to rethink what what the what I call like rent seeking really looks like you know because Bitcoin uh the community is capturing the value that's why the Bitcoin blockchain grows in value is because it's all the energy required is reflected in the price [snorts] uh in smart contracts I I think it's proving that it's a fat protocol so instead of TCPIP being the base layer for Ethereum whatever your staking and operating on Ethereum, the value is captured on the blockchain itself.
It's acting as a monetary base. So to me, the price of Ethereum probably goes up a lot uh in the future because I mean, just as a simple mechanical measure, if Black Rockck and Goldman stable coins and they have tokenized stocks and it's an L2, but it runs on Ethereum's L1, they'll want to care how the L1 upgrades.
So they're going to eventually own Ethereum. Mhm. So [clears throat] then if 20 investment banks buy Ethereum as a balance sheet reserve, as as much as they hold Bitcoin as reserve, then the price of Ethereum is going to go up a lot. Tom Lee believes Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering a new era of complimentary roles.
Bitcoin as digital sound money and Ethereum as the foundation for tokenized markets. The old having cycle is giving way to a liquiditydriven phase shaped by institutional demand and macro shift. Ethereum's growing network effects and staking appeal could make Lee's $21,000 target more realistic as tokenization expands from US treasuries to corporate bond.
With gold rising, stable coins growing, and Bitcoin showing healthy pullbacks, Lee sees 2025 and beyond as the start of a liquidityfueled bull cycle that could redefine global finance. His outlook isn't hype. It's pattern recognition from past market transformations. Can Bitcoin and Ethereum truly thrive together in the next financial era? Do you think Ethereum reaching $21,000 is possible in this cycle? .
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