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트럼프 당선 직후 진영 반응을 정리하고, 트럼프 행정부의 경기 및 정책 리스크를 짚는다. 경기침체 가능성을 제기하며 고용·실업 지표의 악화 흐름을 근거로 든다. RFK Jr.의 정부 개혁 구상과 Kathy Wood의 암호화폐 규제 완화 기대를 소개한다. 주가는 사상 최고치지만 과거 침체 사례상 증시 고통이 남았을 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
the reactions to Donald Trump winning are all over the place the farri wants us to feel powerless extremists are counting on apathy cynicism heartbreak they frankly start with Jimmy Kimmel literally in tears and they go to AOC talking fascism to Elizabeth Warren freaking out to the Wall Street Journal editorial board suggesting that Democrats only have themselves to blame others On The Wall Street Journal suggest that Taylor Swift can give you some answers as to why Democrats lost to well quite frankly some suggesting that Donald Trump whether he likes it or not is about to inherit a recession and then you get Kathy Woods saying this is the best moment for Innovation and the future America could potentially ask for we know that Kathy Wood was a fan of voting for Donald Trump on an economic basis as she announced at the event that I held this summer and she spoke at we were on stage together when she made that announcement but less on that let's just start going through this one by one and then we'll end with what RFK has to say some of his plans and what do Kathy would have to say about Bitcoin and the future of crypto boy there is a lot to unpack in this one and I think the best way to unpack it is by starting with Jimmy Kimmel's reaction let's be honest it was a terrible night last last night it was a terrible night for women for children for the hundreds of thousands of of hardworking immigrants who make this country go um for health care for our climate for science for journalism for justice for free speech it was a terrible night for poor people for the middle class for seniors who rely on social security for our allies in Ukraine for NATO for the and democracy and decency and it was a terrible night for everyone who voted against him and guess what it was a bad night for everyone who voted for him too you just don't realize it yet let's be wow wow that's a that's a big one there from Jimmy Kimel first I I want to start there by mentioning that uh AOC apparently and her organization or whomever ran 80,000 different electoral simulations 880,000 different and they basically thought they had this in the bag in fact you could see that right here we ran 80,000 election simulations and women are pissed off and well organized in every one of them Elon Musk replied to this the reality is that an enormous number of sensible smart women voted for Donald Trump he would not have won without them and quite frankly in the polling in my over 13-hour live stream when we were looking at the exit polling and the data coming out of this election yeah this sweep by women this Quiet Woman vote it just didn't show up in favor of Harris over Donald Trump in the droves that people thought when young dudes outnumber desensitized women apparently you don't have that big of a movement motivating women now on top of this you also just heard Jimmy Kimmel talk about zalinski and uh how this is bad for Ukraine yet what's interesting is zalinski literally uh just got off the phone with Donald Trump and zalinsky described his first call with Donald Trump on Wednesday as excellent as proposals made by members of the US president-elect's Inner Circle to end the war to end Russia's war in Ukraine emerged following a stunning Republican Victory on Tuesday zilinsky vote on excuse me wrote on X that he congratulated Trump on his historic Landslide victory in a phone call on Wednesday evening during which the two agreed to maintain close dialogue seninsky had earlier praised Trump uh in his peace through strength approach that would undoubtedly benefit the US and the rest of the world people want confidence they want freedom they want a normal life for us that means a life free from Russian aggression with a strong America a strong Ukraine and strong allies uh zinsky said in a nightly address now what's interesting is you also had Donald Trump uh received some commentary from Vladimir Putin today now I saw this come through the tape but uh rather than read it from there I'll show it to you from an article which uh summarizes it well Putin congratulates Trump and says he's ready to engage in dialogue like so far this looks like a good thing Donald Trump com uh was commended by Putin for exhibiting bravery and strength as well after the assassination attempt against Donald Trump these were Putin's first comments to take the opportunity to congratulate Trump on his election as president of the United States he claimed that Russia didn't ruin relations with the US and is open to Reviving them but the ball is in America's Court this is sort of a way of implying that it's Biden's fault that uh discussions have ended Putin said he did not know what might come of Trump's promise to negotiate a quick end suggesting uh however suggesting that the president's proposals were worth evaluating says the article at least uh then we know this has gone has sort of gone back and forth about how Donald Trump says he's going to end the war within 24 hours but the Russian leader Putin said his bravery I think that's what they mean to write here at the moment of an attempt on his life left an impression on me he turned out to be a brave man Putin said I mean honestly so far at least the initial commentary that you're getting from Putin and zalinski doesn't make me agree with Jimmy Kimble that this is necessarily bad I also don't think it's necessarily useful when you have people like AOC doing the sad act and this is her commentary we are about to enter a political period that will have consequences for the rest of our lives we cannot give up We Now find ourselves in a time in history that has precedent and we find ourselves I believe in a time where there are let's say peers in history of mass movements of people that mobilized to protect one another in times of fascism uh and author arianism basically let me tldr you here she's just reiterating that people who voted for Donald Trump or Nazis and Hitler see this is the kind of stuff that helped unfortunately for them Democrats lose it's not just the law fair that we've saw from uh now the Department of Justice which apparently is working with Jack Smith to potentially drop a lot of the doj cases against Donald Donald Trump to sort of clean this up before Donald Trump becomes president uh and on top of that you do also have the New York documents falsification case of which Donald Trump was found guilty uh the judge in that case does have a sentencing scheduled for later this month for Donald Trump but look Donald Trump is not going to get thrown into Jail uh if there's some kind of punishment it would likely be symbolic uh like potentially a fine or time served or maybe they'll just dismiss the case entirely or leave it to an appeal or whatever uh but at this point the law fair is essentially over and the editorial board writes there are a few reasons for this this is the Wall Street Journal editorial board and the editorial board says that democrats should evaluate the quote from Seinfeld it's not you it's me and they specifically break down how Democrats failed in this election first they talk about the failure of biomics the ignoring essentially of the benefits of Private Business ultimately driving higher growth in the economy and uh ultimately higher incomes for individuals while at the same time creating wealth through private markets instead they focused on quite frankly the inflation reduction act and a focusing on providing essentially wage gains where they wanted them green new energy deals such as solar batteries electric vehicles which I'm not necessarily opposed to supporting those Industries but by taking away sort of the freehand of the economy the laa approach of the economy uh the Wall Street journal's editorial board says this robbed millions of workers of real wage gains which ultimately haunted Democrats on Tuesday as two-thirds of Voters said they were unhappy with the state of the economy on top of that Democrats also took their 2020 as an invitation to turn identity politics into woke policy Democrats stood with transgender activists instead of parents who don't want boys to play girls sports or Elementary School teachers to pass out pronoun pins worth noting that in California California just Unwound some of the policies of essentially not Prosecuting certain crimes as felonies by reinstating that certain drug crimes are indeed felonies and certain thefts are indeed felony felonies because wow maybe crime should finally be crime again Democrats also began using the term latinx which sounds too many uh which sounds to too many Spanish speakers like illiterate cultural imperialism from Elites could that be why Mr Trump won 46% of the Hispanic vote and 55% of Latino men according to exit polls on top of that you have Dem Democrats pushing coercive ma mandates such as the EPA rules for uh uh EV mandates laying off Auto Workers in Michigan there are actually a lot of people I saw in comments that were saying hey you know these EV mandates are very unprofitable for companies that people work for in America like Ford or GM or otherwise and even though the UAW might be Pro comma haris which they were they were very anti-trump from the head you know Shan Fain a lot of members were saying no you know what I'm I'm Pro Trump and they ended up voting for Trump uh and then of course they they also reiterate the law fair against Trump uh and they also argue that Democrats decided to use taxes from plumbers and welders to forgive college loans for lawyers and grad students in grievance studies now this is very interesting because it kind of goes to show that wait a minute uh you know the Democratic party was always supposed to be one of the people essentially it used to that people thought of Republicans as the wealthier individuals and Democrats as the ones looking to support uh the lower to middle class but in this case that turned into the exact opposite Republicans were supported by all various different classes uh that is lower class middle class upper class because they felt their concerns were being heard about the economy about woke politics or quite frankly uh about the future of war in our geopolitical Outlook this Outlook that this war in Ukraine that's been going on for two and a half years now against Russia has no hope of ending and even though Donald Trump says hey I'm going to get this done within 24 hours and there's no guarantee that he actually will at least people have hope that there's going to be a change of strategy that something will get done because quite frankly this is one of the strong things that Donald Trump has which I mentioned even before the election uh while he was running that was that during Donald Trump's term you had no new Wars you did under Bush you did under bo uh under Obama and you did under Biden but you did not under Trump this is a good argument and so as a lot of sort of this information comes together about how and why uh did Democrats lose this these are some of the explanations that are coming out now this doesn't mean everything is all good for example Jeffrey Tucker uh who wrote an opinion piece over in the epoch times he's a Libertarian by the way uh used to work at one point for the mees Institute he also uh is a Ron Paul supporter he mentions that uh we might end up already being in a recession and uh quite frankly uh it's very common in history for recessions being called after the fact consider in September of 200 7 the last time we cut by 50 basis points uh you know outside of covid we thought GDP was growing at a pace of 4 to 5% and it was revised substantially down to barely over 1% by the following year so a lot of the data we get right now could be revised down and this could unfortunately for Trump they said could end up being a headwind to his administration consider this in October of 2029 the stock market crashed many people on Wall Street suffered but Main Street was largely unaffected throughout 1931 public sentiment toggled between pessimism and denial and many people thought it was a temporary blip that would go away by 1932 enough people were concerned about the problem and the big issue of prohibition at the time uh and then you ended up with an after the fact declared Great Depression today it's obvious that 1929 marked the beginning but it wasn't visible at the time in fact this has already happened in America as well today consider that in 2022 we were told that our economy was not in a recession even though technically GDP declined by two quter in a row which is the technical definition of a recession this author argues that the trouble was that too was an illusion most of the job gains then when we thought the the J jobs Market was strong were really just multiple job holders and gains that were going to foreign born workers and not natives overall jobs held by native born workers that are full-time are down relative to four years ago no one in the mainstream media has admitted this the jobs report out last week was the first glimpse of truth because it was brazenly awful underperforming every prediction it also chronicled major job losses in manufacturing and Professional Services and those are hardcore recession signs that are likely going to worsen especially when all of this data gets revised next year and it becomes visibly obvious that the economy is weak weaker than we previously anticipated and so here's an example where you have folks saying hey uh hopefully this isn't true but the reality is Donald Trump could end up suffering the Trump recession of 2025 or 2026 because of the data of the past few years which people have essentially voted on with sentiment this what the article says as well people took their sentiment and said you know you're telling me we're not in a recession but I don't believe you I feel like we're in a recession I feel like things are bad I feel like things are tough people voted on that feeling but that feeling isn't showing up in the data yet because sometimes the data can take years to show up but that could be another supporting reason as to why Donald Trump won is that people feel they are in a recession and even if Donald Trump is eventually saddled with the actual recession they see Donald Trump as somebody who could turn it around take a look by the way at that payrolls data from October these were those declines here manufacturing and business services in the October month-over-month changes not great these are your productive jobs and you even lost jobs in Leisure and Hospitality where you gained jobs where in healthcare and social assistance and government work something that's generally deemed to be a lower productive set of workers not to mention on top of this when you look at the chart of those who are unemployed for 27 weeks or more these workers begin to fall off the chart when it comes to unemployment continuing claims and so like this morning when we get continuing claims numbers they don't really show up because once you're unemployed for more than half of a year you sort of get forgotten you sort of disappear when you look at the chart you find that this number has been steadily rising and it only Rises at the beginning of recessions or right at the end of a recession you could see right here end of a recession it rises end it rises end it rises here beginning of recession it rises uh you got some bumps over here in 63 and 64 but nowhere near the magnitude that we've seen here uh rise after the recession of 70 after 75 after 80 a little bit of uh uh sort of halfway through in 82 then you get a rise in 91 you get a rise in 2001 as you're in the recession you get a rise in 2007 and 2008 you can see that rise really starting to pick up in the summer there of 2008 and we've seen this pickup really start since about the summer of 2024 June of 2024 we really started seeing these numbers pick up and and it sends this signal of uhoh could we potentially be trending towards the recession or maybe because we're Rising maybe we're already in it maybe like the author suggests this recession right here actually began somewhere over here at the end of 2023 or maybe even the beginning of 2024 and maybe we're just at the tail end of the recession but the real pain of the stock market is potentially still to be determined or it was the pain of 2022 that's behind us although I will say once I think we're in a declared recession you'll probably see some frustration in markets given that most markets had anticipated we would absolutely strike a soft landing and when you go to 2000 for example you could find that this number Rose through about August of 2001 but the stock market still had another year and a half actually more yeah no about a year and a half of pain to go the stock market bottomed in about March of 2003 and you could see that beginning rise over here when the recession was technically over uh didn't coincide with a bottom in the stock market similarly in 2009 the bottom of the stock market was right here in roughly that last fifth of that recession bar and the beginning of that bar was more the beginning of 2008 so it's possible that stock market pain is still ahead but that remains to be seen for Now Stocks are at all-time highs which is also pretty dang similar to 2007 when stocks quite frankly ran uh after the FED cut by 50 basis points in September of 2007 and you had rallies to new all-time highs because of the belief that the FED had stuck a soft Landing of course if you look at construction spending throughout the entire United states which is really a way of contractors to make a bet with their money on the future of the economy and as to whether or not they should develop or continue building real estate you actually find that the 1990 2024 and 207 Cycles are all aligning with a decline in housing units under construction following uh the the first interest rate cut 12 months before and after the first uh um cuts here uh and so we should be getting some data soon over here uh but this is very different from that 1995 soft Landing that we've seen uh as well as the 2001 era which was more of a financial bubble so something uh you know like stock valuation based so something to keep an eye on as well over here uh but these are all things that uh point to problems Donald Trump is potentially going to have to deal with some people say Donald Trump made being Republican cool again other people say that this was the Department of Health in 2020 and this is the Department of Health now which is potentially the perfect uh place to interject what Robert F Kennedy says about fixing the government I think I know how to regain that trust you regain trust by being trustworthy that means first we clean out the rod in Washington DC and get the corporate influence out of our government agencies so that they serve the public again rather than being predatory against the public second we end the regime of propaganda and censorship that has corrupted our media that's what I plan to do with President Trump's backing when I'm in Washington it's a huge task but I know how to get it done because I've been suing corrupt agencies and corporations for 40 years I know how they work and I know how to clean them up of course while this is happening you have Mark Cuban who did go out of his way to actually congratulate Donald Trump and Elon Musk for their Victory but soon after that and soon after Kevin o said the market voted here the market decided and corrected itself of a wrong you ended up having Mark cubin apparently unfollowing Kevin o so it looks like you've got a little bit of drama going on in the circles of shark tank that said let's now listen to Kathy Wood and her thoughts on bitcoin and regulation how do you think the Trump regime will approach Financial regulation given that he's vowed to replace SEC chair Gary gendler what does that look like well I I think I think first as as it relates to crypto or digital asset regulation um they're they're going to replace Gary gansler with someone who is uh much more open-minded I would say and and will let the legislative process uh work uh go to work and uh you know the is supposed to regulate enforce laws they're not supposed to uh create laws by enforcement which is what uh Gary gendler was doing so I think uh that's going to be um important I also think if you look at the public Equity markets I think the number of public uh companies out there right now has been cut in half in in the last 15 20 years um the regulatory nightmare of being a public company has kept people has kept um leaders of companies basically saying if I don't have to go public I am not going public and so I think we're going to see uh a lot more work in that regard to give you know the average investor uh a a shot at some of these moonshots uh so I think that's going to become very important as far as the FTC you know the the anti trust has has gone way too far you know they they were denying um mergers and Acquisitions that really the the the the companies were tangential to one another they weren't even really in the same Market uh so uh we're seeing and and yet at the time at the same time we've seen these uh megatech companies grow into you know massive organizations and dominating their market so they were denying mergers and Acquisitions for you know think about JetBlue and spirit a airlines that was ridiculous that was in the same industry but one is going bankrupt now because because they wouldn't allow that m&a here's the thing I actually think Kathy Wood is 100% correct the SEC when it is bound by not having clear legislation ends up making their own interpretation through lawsuits and this makes for a very challenging opportunity to actually grow businesses because you're worried that if you even mention crypto that you're going to get sued or audited or whatever by the SEC so you just stay away from it by actually having legislation that could pass maybe under a red sweep in the United States uh president uh and uh Congressional leadership passing some form of crypto reform or regulation maybe then you could actually have a true opening for investing or utilizing blockchain technology in Business Without Fear of Oppression from the SEC especially with the potential of a Gary gendler being replaced so these are some of the reactions that I'm seeing out there and I want to hear from you what are you seeing out there anyway if you like this compilation make sure to subscribe to the channel I'll get you more info and I'm always going to do my best to bring you as much value as possible and also get you daily value if you sign up over at meetkevin.com Alfa you get a totally free how to start your morning uh email or text with an outline of things to pay attention to in the day catalysts trade ideas support and resistance lines option ideas you name it
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