저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프가 파월 연준의장을 해임할 수 있는지 법적·정치적으로 검토하고, 경기침체 시 금리인하·QE 압박이 있을 수 있으나 장기적으로는 연준 독립성 훼손이 위험하다고 주장. 단기 금리인하는 침체 충격 완화에 도움이 될 수 있다고 봄. 스왑스프레드 급락은 시장이 장기 금리 하락을 반영한다는 신호로 해석. 무료 알파 리포트 홍보 포함.
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oh firing jpow this is going to be a good one and you're going to want to pay attention to this one I do want to give you a quick heads up that this morning I gave a totally free heads up that you want to pay attention to coin and Robin Hood here it is I sent this to people I texted it to you I emailed it to you I talked about Hood going to 2981 and coin breaking 244 if we get a bullish open on the NASDAQ that's what I wrote in my Alpha report and look at what happened Robin Hood traded sideways for about the first 30 minutes and then skyrocketed from 27 over 20% right to my line and coinbase it didn't go from my 218 line to my 244 line the way I thought it would it went over it and it only started trending back to it in after hours so if you want to get alerts like that make sure you go to meetkevin.com SL Alpha it's the first free report we did yesterday well actually today and I'm going to do another one tomorrow uh so stay tuned get your Alpha go to meetkevin.com Alpha to sign up it's free CNN is freaking out that the Federal Reserve might get destroyed by Donald Trump in fact they say exactly that in their article entitled the Federal Reserve as we know it could soon be turned on its head this was published today and it pictures a side photo of Drome Powell now we'll go into the details of what they're concerned about and how Donald Trump could fire Jerome Powell or if he does what that could mean for Federal Reserve Independence but what we've got to analyze first is is it even possible for Donald Trump to fire Jerome Powell after we ask is it possible then we have to ask ourselves okay well whom and why would there be a replacement uh so with whom would drum get replaced and why would there be a replacement and then we'll have to evaluate what does CNN actually have in terms of a concern and is there any valid basis for this so let's start is it possible for Donald Trump to fire Jerome Powell well as somebody who studies the fed and probably more than Nick T does although I'll give respect to Nick T he basically says we're getting a 25 basis point cut tomorrow uh it is worth noting that the Federal Reserve Act does allow a president to remove a Fed governor for cause now keep this in mind there are seven fed Governors one of them sits on the chair of the Board of Governors and there are 12 more Bank presidents so in total you usually have a total board with Governors and presidents of about 19 uh but uh let's understand this for a moment if a president is allowed to remove somebody like drw Powell for cause how is cause defined well actually pretty dang broadly and we know anything that's defined pretty dang broadly is subject to Donald Trump's interpretation and we know that Donald Trump is going to interpret it to mean whatever the hell he wants for cause is generally regulated as uh some form of inefficiency in governance neglect of Duty or mal fence well inefficiency frankly you can make plenty of arguments about the inefficiencies of monetary policy especially if the country ends up entering into a slow lower jobs growth environment which that alone could argue for either a recession or replacing drone Powell after all the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate stable prices and maximum employment and if employment is going negative then you could argue the FED is either being inefficient or they're doing something wrong which would be malici Mal excuse me or or just straight up neglect quite frankly you could just allege all three of those fire Jerome Powell picks somebody else and by the time it gets litigated in courts which tend to now broadly side with Donald Trump well let's just say you're going to end up with a different fed president so is it possible absolutely now is it likely and with whom would Donald Trump replace drum pal well I think whether or not it's likely depends on what kind of economy Donald Trump inherits Nick T talked about exactly this early earlier today on Fox Business now I'll save you the 7-minute video because while he basically said we're getting a 25 BP cut tomorrow you know quarter percentage point cut uh and we'll get a lot of wait and see Nick T was very reasonable to point out that hey we don't exactly know what kind of economy we're going to get under Donald Trump because some of it is out of Donald Trump's control we have expectations about tax policy and tariff policies and potentially inflation or rates but that doesn't necessarily mean that our expectations are going to align with reality in fact frequently the opposite happens so let's think for a moment if Donald Trump as Nick T says inherits a productivity boom and GDP continues to grow well we might actually be able to pay off our debt or reduce our debt expenditures as a per percentage of GDP and we could go into a relatively positive period of economic growth which is generally good for everyone if however Donald Trump inh it's a more recessionary economy which is possible by January February when he takes over it is entirely possible that Jerome Powell is going to find himself stuck between a rock and a hard place do we cut faster do we go to 3% do we go to 2% 1% do we go to zero and we can all anticipate that Donald Trump is going to demand zero but not only is Donald Trump going to demand zero he's going to demand exactly what Rick santoli from CNBC was freaking out about this morning when he was interviewing a commodity well a volatility Trader over at the uh Commodities and Futures Trading commission and Rick Santo's like wait what do you think the fed's going to do and the guy's like qwi we're going to go back to QE that's quantitative easing and Rick was freaking out over this he's not a big fan of the Federal Reserves manipulation in markets but this is not just going to be about interest rates coming down Donald Trump has the potential to say look poell you're fired unless you get rates down rapidly and you turn the money printer back on money printer go Burr now in order to actually get to that kind of pressure you're probably going to have to have problems in markets uh some form of instability like when stock markets are at all-time highs I don't see Donald Trump uh picking up the phone uh and going um uh oh uh hey um I need you to go to zero Po's going to be like uh well first of all why are you on the camera app and second of all why now if markets are in turmoil then it's entirely possible that Jan Paul picks up the phone goes what are you doing get to work here otherwise you're fired and it could enhance the federal reserve's desire to actually make uh some change happen after all drum Powell while he says he wants to be a political that is not influenced by politics he also has a legacy to protect and being the first uh D you know Federal Reserve chairperson to get fired would look really bad for Jerome Powell now he might not care but he also doesn't want a recession I truly do believe Jerome Powell cares about quite frankly the success of America and if they can avoid a recession they will now they will put us through a recession if they think there's a risk of inflation coming back they'll rather have a recession than inflation but that's really a debate for a different video what's more important is if inflation is down which I expect it to continue to be and we have tumult in the market I absolutely expect Donald Trump to pressure Powell Powell's term does not technically end until May of 20126 that technically means Dron Powell has another a year and a half about 18 months of his term to go this is actually quite interesting because it means hm you get get fired at any point next year unless you do Donald Trump's bidding now with whom would Donald Trump replace strong pow this might mean less but it could be really anyone you could have uh Kevin hasset uh you remember him he used to be on TV all the time during covid and during the v-shaped recovery Larry cudow days he was the former chair of the Council of economic advisers under Trump and uh he's really a tax policy expert he worked a lot with the tax cut and job act another option would be art laugher though art laugher has kind of suggested he doesn't want the job art laugher would make uh Kathy Wood's like life Kathy Wood loves Kevin art laugher really respects him he's somebody who was part of the Reagan Administration uh he was a strong advocate for tax cuts which you know a lot of people especially Trump supporters big fan of tax cuts I think that's probably also in part why he got elected uh and he's a big fan of using tax cuts to stimulate growth could he end up working as a Fed yes but he's indicated he doesn't really want a life of that sort of public eye so he might say no but who knows maybe he'll end up being some form of advisor or they'll just find somebody who sort of like art laugher another opportunity could be Lori Logan who already works at the Federal Reserve or maybe somebody like Kevin warsh uh this is just another former fed Governor from the banki days uh and uh he's he's got some critical views on QE though so it's possible that you don't end up getting Kevin warsh uh and Lori Logan might be a little bit more concerned about inflation so you're probably going to be looking more at someone like a Kevin hasset I personally wouldn't be surprised by that because I'm not trying to sound offensive to Kevin hasset maybe I have the wrong impression here but I kind of feel like hasset is somebody who's just going to kind of do whatever Donald Trump wants and that's going to give Donald Trump significant power over monetary policy and frankly in the short term it's probably a good thing the Federal Reserve in the short term is probably too restrictive in terms of their policy for what we deserve quite frankly with an economy that's slowing the jobs Market there is no question is unmistakably slowing down there are inventory Channel Corrections at corporations pricing power is waning and yeah that doesn't mean companies can't beat earnings expectations earnings expectations were revised down so it's easier to beat that's sort of how analysts pre- price earnings they revise down and then they beat it's it's all a game and the analysts kind of benefit anyway when these stocks go up in my opinion because that's how they keep their jobs you keep pooping on companies too much you end up getting fired nobody likes a bear let's put it that way but what's really interesting here is in the short term bullying the Federal Reserve to lower rates could help reduce the impact of a recession and could be the right thing to do however there are some serious long-term concerns and this is what CNN is freaking out about before I mention that I do just want to quickly mention tomorrow will be the second day that I provide a a free Alpha report go to me kevin.com Alpha uh this is going to be our second report tomorrow I try to get to you about 15 minutes before the Market opens it comes to you with trade ideas and options to watch technical analysis to watch so if you want to get that report make sure to get it over at maven.com Alfa so with that let's jump in over here to CNN for over 70 years the central bank has operated as an independent it's basically a quasi government agency when officials meet to decide interest rates they don't consult the president and that's because Central Bankers should be essentially there to remove the punch B right when the part's getting started or to make just frankly unpopular decisions like the party was getting started in 21 and then the FED starts u-turning in December of 2021 and they take the punch bowl away that's unpopular now in this case Federal Reserve support would actually be very popular because people want lower rates the problem is when you remove that Federal Reserve Independence you might never end up pulling a December of 2021 again and that's where CNN basically argues that you might end up taking that Independence away and in the long term you could reignite inflation by not responding to an inflationary impetus of the future and so I half agree with CNN here and I half agree with Donald Trump I actually think Donald Trump would be right to mitigate the damage of this recession that the Federal Reserve is brewing they're all already behind the curve so I think Donald Trump would be right to beat up the fed and threaten to fire Jerome poo or even do it if he needs to to help prevent the odds of a recession and support the American economy it's going to need it over the next year I'm highly confident of that obviously I could be wrong that said in the future you would want to bring that Independence back to make sure you do have a Fed that is willing to take the punch bowl away do a December of 2021 when it becomes necessary to do so I don't know how easy it would be to be able to switch back to that so there you go could Powell get fired absolutely is Donald Trump's threat of firing Powell probably a good thing for the economy yes but it's only going to happen once the economy starts really showing more severe and sustained cracks if you look at interest rate interest rate swaps this this gets a little Arcane but if for example you go to uh the 5year uh swap spread on Sofer you're going to see on a chart that they're going vastly negative heavily negative like these spreads are usually a sign of markets suggesting there's some kind of tumult coming uh and when you look at spreads they've basically been going straight down since 2020 we had lows in the summer of 2022 like July 19th of 22 that's when house Haack was founded like at the bottom of that stock market in 2022 that was crazy uh and then you also had some pain at the end of 2023 which is also when you had swap spreads as NE or nearly as negative as they are now but they've fallen off a cliff and gone even more negative which is a sign that markets think over the longer term in this case the 5year spread or the 10year spread interest rates will end up going lower markets are just mispricing that right now why we don't know is it because the recession's coming or there's some other mistake I guess we'll find out anyway if you found this useful consider subscribing to the channel get your free Alpha report at me kevin.com Alpha and an
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