Ed Yardeni: The Fed has to chill on the idea that we need tighter financial conditions

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결론: 금리 하락은 긴축 완화가 아니라 연준의 인플레이션 억제 성공 신호이며, 연준은 금융여건 긴축 필요성 논리에서 물러서야 한다는 주장. 연준 및 금융여건 논쟁 연준은 금융여건이 너무 느슨하다며 긴축 필요성을 말하지만 Yardeni는 이를 잘못된 논리로 본다. 장기금리 하락은 연준이 인플레이션 기대를 잡는 데 성공했다는 신뢰의 반영이라고 설명. 10년물 금리가 2년물 아래로 떨어진 역전 수익률곡선은 연준이 너무 긴축적이라는 신호이며, 단기금리 추가 인상 시 신용경색과 경기침체 위험이 있다고 경고. 경기 지표 대출 기준 강화(상업대출·소비자 대출 모두)와 M2 급감, 선행지수 하락을 근거로 이미 충분히 긴축적이라고 판단. 모기지 금리는 연초 대비 크게 상승해 주택 산업에 침체를 가져왔고, 소매업체는 재고 할인, IT 업계는 감원 중이라고 언급. 경제에 제약이 나타나고 있으나 인플레이션은 완화(디스인플레이션) 단계. 인플레이션 전망 연준 인사들이 디스인플레이션을 인정하지만 서비스 물가에 과도하게 집중한다고 비판. 서비스 인플레이션도 하반기에 완화될 것으로 전망. 인플레이션을 낮추는 데 반드시 경기침체가 필요한 것은 아니라는 입장. 증시 전망 2022년 10월 저점 이후 랠리가 이어지고 있으며 강세장이 유효하다고 봄. 약세장 때처럼 선행 PER 8~10배까지 내려가진 않았지만 경제 전망이 컨센서스보다 낫다고 평가. 다만 CPI 발표를 앞두고 시장이 일시적으로 주춤하며 긴장이 나타날 수 있다고 전망. 대상 자산 직접 언급 없음(미국주식 전반에 대한 낙관적 견해).

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01. all right let's swing right into this stock market with us now zedyard Denny president of your Denny research Ed welcome back I am still rooting for the Arden bull market that started in mid-october you're still intact I'm your biggest fan along with the Kudlow trust but here's the thing thank you I mentioned this at the beginning of the show and I've got a chart up on the full screen this baloney that the FED should be upset because Bond rates have come down and so-called Financial conditions are easy and therefore the FED should get tired this is rates have blown sky 2008 and 2009 and the Federal Reserve if anything the decline in bond rates is a function of the fed's success in beating back inflation expectations so I'm just so annoyed at this financial conditions baloney well you have to look at the 10-year bond yield relative to the two-year when you see that the 10-year bond yield is trading below the two-year that's what's called an inverted yield curve as you know Larry and that's actually a sign that the FED is too tight so we have a situation where the bondulas come down because investors have perceived that if the FED goes much further in raising short-term interest rates as reflected in the two-year something's going to break and there's going to be a credit crunch in a recession so that's the irony of the situation is the lower bond yields I actually reflect a voter of confidence for the fed's ability to bring inflation down exactly exactly um I mean you've got look Jay Powell is talking about financial condition now John Williams well John Williams a very smart man he's the New York fed head uh Vice chair of the fomc but this is just this financial condition stuff is just wrong and furthermore Adam just go back to this the feds survey day of loan officers lending standards for commercial loans have tightened substantially consumer household borrowing has tightened substantially and then you've got stuff like that you mentioned the inverted curve M2 is plunging the leading indicators are plunging I mean how tight do we want the FED to be well look what we want to do is bring inflation down we don't really need to have a recession to do that in my humble opinion here and I think the FED has to uh kind of chill out Chill on the idea that we need tighter Financial conditions as you said a lot of financial conditions are very tight I mean the mortgage rate has soared from the since the beginning of the year and as a result we've seen a recession in the Housing Industry uh retailers have had to Discount their merchandise because it's been piling up the IT industry is uh laying off workers so we are seeing some restraint here in the economy but the important thing is we're seeing moderation and inflation and fed officials including Jay Powell have acknowledged that there is disinflation but they make it sound like it just uh just starting I I think we're actually in a pretty good uh speed in getting inflation down and this preoccupation with Services I think we're going to find that too moderates by the second half of the year so they they talk too much they they focus too much on uh on on variables that uh are confusing to to most individuals you're right uh mortgage loans and rates are way up credit card rates are way up I mean it's not as though they've done nothing um last 30 seconds at yard daddy how is the yard Denny bull market dating back the last October does it have legs well I think it does I mean it's not going to be straight up uh this the bear Market before the bull market didn't exactly give us a screaming uh the cheap uh evaluation multiples we get down to 15 and a forward p e basis usually in a bear Market you get down to eight to ten but I think the economic Outlook is uh is is better than the consensus had been thinking and I think that's why the we've seen this rally since October 12th I think we are going to see the market stall out a little bit here because the CPI is coming yeah and that's going to be it creating some nervousness all right had you heard any terrific stuff thanks very much talk soon