저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 피셔는 2022년 10월 12일 저점 이후 새로운 강세장이 시작됐다고 보며, 하락폭이 컸던 성장주·경기민감주가 강세장 초기 1/3 구간에서 가장 크게 반등할 것이라고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 약세장에서 많이 떨어진 범주(성장주, 경기민감 소비재, 테크 성장주 등)가 다음 강세장 초기에 더 많이 오른다는 것이 그의 틀이다. 다만 매주·매월 항상 그런 것은 아니다. 종목 언급: 개별 종목은 언급하지 않는다고 명시했다. 대신 에너지 섹터는 약세장에서 잘 버텼지만 반등기에는 부진할 것이라고 시사했다. 리스크·조건: 본인 판단이 틀려 시장이 2023년 중 실질적으로 더 하락하면, 하락 범주는 한동안 더 부진하겠지만 이후 다시 더 크게 반등할 것이라고 했다. 그럴 경우에도 강세장은 이미 시작되었다는 입장이다. 투자 조언: 특정 범주를 분산 보유하되 공포심을 활용해 하락 범주에 비중을 싣는 것이 반등기에 유리하다고 권고한다. 출연자 전망: 시장 바닥은 2022년 10월이며 2023년 상승 국면 진입으로 본다. 확신은 강하지 않으며 틀릴 수 있다고 인정했다.
다듬은 글
some people think the market will go up others think the market will go down that's kind of a gating feature in how you think about maybe what you want to do over the next however many number of months fact is my view which I've articulated many ways in many places is that I believe the market made about them on October 12th I believe we're in a new bull market I may be wrong I may be right but if we are then you say to yourself in a new bull market what bounces the most and the answer is and this has been not perfectly but almost perfectly true throughout the period from October 12th on the categories that dropped the most tend to bounce the most not every week not every month maybe not for two months in a row because markets are volatile you know that but the categories that drop the most in the bear Market tend to bounce the most in roughly the first third of the next bull market however long that subsequent bull market May last so in that you say to yourself at one level you just throw out the notion of specificity and ask yourself more broadly what fell the most and you actually know that the things that fell the most were things that were growthy things that were cyclical not value stocks and much more growth stocks and those are the things you would expect to bounce more I don't want to get into specific Securities I don't do that in Broad public uh commentary ever uh there's all kinds of problems if I do and if you need me to get you into those things you need me to get you out of them too and that's not pretty because it's not going to work that way but what I want you to see is that you can just simply go and look at what was hurt more in the bear Market and load up on those categories of things and in the bounce period you'll do better diversify amongst it but you'll do better now I want you to see how much that's often counter to normal human instincts normal human instincts want to say I want to buy and own the things that didn't do badly in the bear Market and so you can see in public commentary a lot of favorability let's say toward energy which did really well through the course of the bear mark the fact of the matter is those things that did well in the bear market like energy tend to do badly in the bounce there's reasons for that I don't really need to go into all the details with energy but you can just see it as a juxtaposition off the bottom between energy on the one hand and let's say growthy stocks on the other uh Tech or now whether they're tech stocks or non-tech growthy stocks so I encourage you to just think in that simple framework of things that got battered more like consumer durables that are inherently economically sensitive things like Tech growth stocks in general those because they got battered more tend to bounce more because they got battered more you tend to be afraid of them that fear is actually your friend if you let it be and that's the way to think about that in roughly the first third of this next bull market thank you oh let me just go on for a second if in fact I'm wrong they'll fall first and more those same things the trend of the bear market to continue punishing the things that had been doing badly if the market goes south and goes down in a material way as 2023 progresses we'll continue to do badly but they will then continue to bounce more later as category and so I encourage you not to be frightened by that should I be wrong and should the market go down there is a bull market ahead it's just a question of when I think it already started in October maybe I'm wrong but either way the things have battered more should bounce more that's where you should focus for the recovery when it comes thank you ]
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