Ken Fisher on Market Crashes, US Debt, Construction and More

요약 보기

시장 폭락과 경기침체가 과거보다 줄었는지는 판단 불가하다고 밝힘. 정부부채가 GDP를 넘는 것은 역사적으로 의미 있는 정보를 주지 않는다고 주장. 건설 동향은 대표적 선행지표가 아니므로 특별히 중요하게 볼 이유가 없다고 함. 위험 감수 적정성은 변동성에 따라 투자 전략을 '생각'이 아니라 '감정'으로 바꾸는지로 판단하라고 조언.

다듬은 글

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01. The fact of the matter is, construction trends aren't really, in and of themselves, a great leading economic indicator. Since they're not a great leading economic indicator, it would be hard to say that it's particularly, uniquely important to be watching. Every month I get questions sent in to me and I get them typed up on these little papers so on my old septuagenarian, feeble eyes can read the large print.

02. And then I try to give you short answers, which is nearly impossible for me to answer anything quickly. I tend to be too ponderous, but I've got just a few here, so I'll rattle through them. The first one is, are 50% market crashes and recessions less likely today and might they recover faster? I wouldn't make any answer to that at all.

03. I don't think there's a way to know that. I don't think we know that that's true or not true. Let me just argue. It is true that today, because of everything that's evolved over the decades in computerization and since we had the last business cycle recession, or even since we had the 2020 Covid-driven, governmentally-induced market contraction, business cycle contraction (not really a recession in its traditional sense) even throughout that whole period, we have been getting more and more and more and more information.

04. And maybe that means we know more about underlying problems in our businesses and how to fix them and keep them under control. Maybe it means, with the more access to information, that we can respond to things quicker. Maybe it means we just know more. Maybe it means we're more arrogant. And so maybe that's a bigger risk.

05. It's really hard to know because there's not really any evidence to base it on that you can firmly grasp. We've had a long time now since we've had a 50% market crash, and it's been a long time since we've had a business cycle recession. So it's just hard to measure the truth of that. An easier one to answer, in a very simple sense is, what does history tell us about government debt exceeding GDP?

06. And the answer is it doesn't tell us a darn thing. I understand why people fear large numbers and why they fear one number growing relative to another number. But the fact of the matter is, we have a long history of government debt in our country and in other countries. We have a long history of GDP in our country and in other countries.

07. And GDP itself, in relation to government debt itself, does not tell you anything about anything, no matter what you want to think. Are construction trends among the most important economic indicators to be watching since they're connected to so many subsectors? The last part of that question is the part that I find curious, "connected to so many subsectors." Well, I don't know that construction trends are connected to any more subsectors than a lot of other trends.

08. For example, don't people in the movie industry eat beef? Don't people in the construction industry eat beef? Is it the cattle industry that's connected to construction, or is it the construction industry that's connected to beef? Where's the beef? I don't know. The fact of the matter is, construction trends aren't really, in and of themselves, a great leading economic indicator.

09. Since they're not a great leading economic indicator, it would be hard to say that it's particularly, uniquely important to be watching. I mean, is it wrong to watch it? No. Does it stand out as different than so many other things? No. It's not a great leading economic indicator. How do I know if I'm taking too much or too little risk?

10. This is a tough one to put a metric on. It's an easier one to put into a different frame. You're taking too much risk if market volatility makes you change the way you think about what you should be doing with your investing. You're taking too little risk if market volatility doesn't make you think.

11. Now, mind you, think is different than feel. If market volatility makes you feel like you should rethink your investment approach, then you're taking too much risk. For the most part, risk is about, can you hold successfully to a rational, long-term investment plan? A rational investment plan that gets you to where you need to be in the long term, whatever that means, tied to your specifics and your requirements.

12. Once you set up that plan, you're not taking too much risk if market volatility doesn't make you feel like you should change what you're doing. If it makes you feel like you should change what you're doing, that's a feeling. And the feeling is the risk. Too little risk means that market volatility doesn't make you think.

13. But normally, market volatility should make you think but not feel. That's the best short answer I can give you. Thank you for listening. Tune in next month where I answer more questions. I call these the mailbag. Send things into the mailbag and I'm delighted to answer them. Take care. .