저자: PeterSchiff·MarcFaber—소속은설명란미기재이나제목에명시된출연자기준 · 외국인
요약 보기
중앙은행의 달러 자산 이탈과 금 매입이 금 강세·미 국채 약세를 유발한다고 주장. 금은 5,500달러까지 올랐다가 조정 중이며 재배분은 이제 시작이라는 견해. 실질금리 하락과 인플레이션이 채권 보유자를 압박해 금이 유리하다고 봄. 미 국채 디폴트·달러 체제 붕괴 가능성을 경고하고, 실물 금·은·백금 보유를 권함. 코코아·커피는 고점이라 보고 밀·옥수수·대두·설탕 상승, 백금이 향후 5년 내 금 가격을 상회할 것이라 베팅.
다듬은 글
central banks are moving away from the dollar, not necessarily to the euro or to the pound or some other fiat currency. They're moving to gold and and so obviously this, you know, this is bullish for gold, bears for treasuries and bullish for gold because gold's what they're buying. I expected gold to maintain its purchasing power, but I didn't expect the dollar to lose its purchasing power against gold by this much so quickly.
So, I wouldn't have thought that gold would just go to 5,500. Now, at 5,500, it may have temporary overshot and has been in a correction since then. Global central banks are systematically accelerating their exit from US dollar assets, abandoning foreign paper debt in favor of physical gold bullion.
This monumental reserve rotation signals an escalating global currency transition as sovereign purchasing power degrades against tangible wealth. Peter Schiff, renowned chief economist and Mark Fabber, celebrated global asset strategist, warned that the international debt regime has breached a definitive point of failure.
Foreign reserve managers are steadily dumping treasuries because nominal yields cannot offset rapid currency dilution. Whenever persistent inflation outstrips policy rate hikes, deeply negative real returns punish bond holders, forcing institutional capital into counterparty free physical gold. Direct macroeconomic predictions warned that the dollar's tenure as the world's premier reserve currency is conclusively numbered as the dollarization accelerates.
While gold experienced an extreme surge to $5,500 before entering a healthy market correction, the broader reallocation cycle is just starting. given that global superpowers like China maintain remarkably minimal bullion exposure relative to their total sovereign holdings. Now we present the clips from their .
Rising interest rates are not necessarily bearish for gold. depends on why they're rising and it depends on whether real right rates are also rising because nominal yields are not that significant. What's significant is the actual real yield. And if the Fed is increasing nominal rates but inflation is rising as fast or faster than that, which it is, then real rates are actually going down.
You know, if inflation is 5% and I'm getting paid 4%, I'm losing 1%. But if inflation goes up to 8%, even if the Fed goes up to 6%, now I'm losing 2%. I'm worse off despite the nominal increase in in rates. So there's even more of a reason to get out of dollars or treasuries and buy gold when you have a negative 2% real yield than when you only had a negative 1% uh real yield.
And of course, you know, if there is a move up in rates, that could be the result of a loss of confidence in the creditworthiness of the United States. It could reflect that uh bond investors are more fearful of inflation eroding away the purchasing power of their principle of their of their interest payments.
It could be the result of a ddollarization uh foreign central banks uh moving away from treasuries. All that is good for gold. So if there's a bare market in US treasuries, that by itself should be bullish for gold because gold competes with treasuries. It competes with the dollar because if you're a foreign central bank and you are making a decision to hold fewer dollars, what are you going to do with the money?
You got to put it somewhere. Exa I've been saying this all last year. It's like why are the tariffs good for gold? Because of this reason and you know what everybody has said in the past to be dismissive because I've been saying look the dollar's days as the reserve are are numbered. People would fall back on the conceit that well we're the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper that yes we got plenty of problems in the US but where are they going to go?
The euro? They going to buy the yen? Are they going to buy the Chinese R&B? like they're kind of stuck by default because as bad as we are, the alternatives are worse. And my point was always, wait a minute, that those are not the only alternatives. They don't have to choose another fiat currency. They could choose gold.
Gold is not in that hamper. Gold is pristine. There's no dirt on it. And that is exactly what's happening. Central banks are moving away from the dollar, not necessarily to the euro or to the pound or some other fiat currency. they're moving to gold and and so obviously this, you know, this is bullish for gold, bearish for treasuries and bullish for gold because gold's what they're buying.
And if you actually look at central bank reserves, total reserves, and you look at the percentage of those reserves that are currently in gold, it's low, especially among the countries that have the biggest reserves. you know, countries like Germany, you know, they got a lot of gold. Uh, you know, or France, but China, China still barely has any or a lot of the other emerging markets.
Aggressive monetary tightening creates an illusion of financial stability while real returns steadily deteriorate across fixed income markets. When inflation outpaces central bank rate hikes, investors endure severe losses despite rising nominal yields, driving massive capital flight away from government bonds.
Surging bond yields reflect a deep-seated loss of faith in sovereign creditworthiness rather than genuine policy control. As foreign institutions actively reject depreciating sovereign liabilities, global debt markets are entering a punishing structural downturn. Market predictions indicate that the next liquidity crisis cannot be remedied through central bank stimulus without sparking catastrophic cost of living spikes and systemic chaos.
inevitable bond buying interventions will only accelerate currency destruction, forcing interest rates drastically higher and crushing equity valuations while physical commodities absorb escaping capital. Now, let's get back to the interview. I suppose that the next crisis cannot be solved with money printing and that there will be a massive turmoil, a chaos and debts will not be repaid.
I suppose that government debts will not be repaid, especially not the US government debt and that then after that happens or while it happens, people will exchange goods and uh services in units which have a certain intrinsic value. Say a pack of cigarette becomes money in prisoners camps because there's not that there's no paper money.
There's no money to transact. Prisoners have no money. But they can transact with cigarettes and they can transact with things similar or Mars bars. You understand? Or a Coca-Cola bottle becomes money. And I suppose that gold and silver and platinum coins will then uh have a status of uh money. I mean they have already today a status of money.
But I cannot go into department store in Thailand or in Switzerland with an ounce of gold and expect the store to repay me in other gold coins. You understand? They don't have the change. But in future you will be able to there will be a time when with gold coins you can uh let's say buy your life life.
It's not necessarily a scenario I look forward to but uh it's likely to happen if not in my lifetime in your lifetime since you look so young. I think we are in a bull market for all commodities, but it's irregular. I suppose that cocoa and coffee have made major highs and they're not going to make new highs in the near future, but I think wheat, corn, soybeans will go up as well as sugar.
And uh I think that probably precious metals will go up because they're not cheap anymore relative to everything else. But it's a it's difficult for an individual to store a ton of wheat in his cellar. But he can store the value of say $10 million in a small box in his apartment or in his house. So I like platinum because I think that the pla price of platinum is relatively low compared to the price of gold.
The same can be said of silver. The same can be said of a barrel of oil expressed in gold is oil is relatively cheap. There are times when platinum is more expensive than gold in general. Gold is more expensive than platinum. But there are times uh when uh platinum [clears throat] becomes relatively dear compared to gold.
And this is what I'm betting on. Mhm. That the price of platinum will in the next 5 years or so exceed the price of gold. If I see that the Fed prints money, I am less inclined to buy bonds because I know that the money printing of the Fed eventually flows into price increases in the system. And not always, but at some point these price increases occur in your and my cost of living.
And that we call usually inflation. If the symptoms of monetary uh printing occur in stocks, we call it the bull market because occurs in properties, we call it the property bull market. But when the cost of bread and butter and olive oil and life necessities goes up, we call it inflation. Anyway, the money printing at some point produces not a rally in bonds but the collapse in bonds and a rally in cost of living increases and that is the end of essentially the functioning of the bailout of the central banks.
At that point they have to accelerate the money printing because the bond market then falls rapidly. So they have to print more and more money to buy these bonds that are declining in value and uh it drives up interest rates dramatically and at some point the rise in interest rates then has a negative impact on assets and that's why I say even if you print money at some point it may not lift the price of gold.
I mean, we had now a decline of gold from four from 5,500 to 4,000 thereabouts and now we're sort of rallying again, but it's not crystal clear whether it will rally further. Not crystal clear. stopping money printing at this stage of the game. It's very painful for economy is a reset and massive defaults and uh in a democracy where people need to get voted.
You know, Worsh I think is an intelligent man. He's very economically bright. I think he's the best Fed chair they could have elected. I'm very impressed by his academic knowledge of economics, read most economist, the classical economist, and he has a sound thinking, but he's now in the Trump administration.
Do you think he can increase interest rates before the elections? Trump is calling for lower interest rates all the time. He may increase interest rates but he may increase interest rates without meaning by without meaning is a quarter of a percent. Paul Vulkar when he got elected Fed chair in 1979 he jacked up interest rates by 2% in one go.
that sent a message was a shock that sent a message to market participants. The prevailing global debt architecture is marching toward an inevitable reckoning where government obligations, especially United States sovereign debt, will completely default and never be repaid. When central bank bailouts definitively fail, monetary trust will dissolve, forcing economies to conduct trade using tangible items endowed with intrinsic value.
physical gold, silver, and platinum coins will reemerge as critical instruments of economic preservation and survival. Forecasts reveal that soft commodities such as coffee and cocoa have established decisive macro tops and will not print fresh highs in the near future. Conversely, key agricultural staples including wheat, corn, soybeans, and sugar are poised for substantial price appreciation.
Furthermore, precious metals present extraordinary relative value disparities. Because physical platinum remains severely discounted against bullion, explicit market forecasts predict that platinum prices will directly outpace and surpass the price of gold over the next 5 years. Securing underpriced physical commodities offers investors vital shelter against sovereign default, runaway inflation, and the complete unraveling of fiat banking system.
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