저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Schiff은 지역은행 연쇄 부실과 주택담보대출 미실현손실 2조달러로 금융위기가 임박했다고 주장하며, 연준이 인플레이션에도 금리를 인하할 수밖에 없고 결국 채권·국가부채 위기로 이어진다고 봄. 생산자물가 연율 17% 상승과 소비자심리 역대 최저를 근거로 제시. AI 투자는 수익성 불확실하다고 언급하며 금·은 및 실물자산, 원자재, 신흥국 기업 보유를 권고. 본인 회사 SchiffGold 매수를 홍보.
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And then when these banks start to fail, which they will, just like Silicon Valley or Signature Bank, when these banks start to fail, now you've got to liquidate their mortgage portfolios. And now you have to realize those unrealized losses. So, that that's going to put a lot of pressure on the Fed not to hike rates, to cut rates, despite inflation getting worse.
And when they do that, then inflation will get even worse than that. Eventually, it's going to be a bond crisis, you know, a sovereign debt crisis. That That's the only thing that's going to stop the debt train is, you know, a a a crash. You can contact uh my company SchiffGold and and get your gold and silver now.
I mean, we've pulled back. Gold's around 4,100. Silver's back below 60, around $56 an ounce. I think these are good prices. Uh I think the metals are moving a lot higher. The global financial system faces severe instability under massive debt and inflation. Systemic pressures are now accelerating rapidly across the banking sector.
Peter Schiff, a veteran market economist, cautions that aggressive policy blunders have set the stage for an inevitable reckoning. He predicts an imminent wave of regional bank failures, forcing lenders to liquidate mortgage holdings and realize catastrophic losses. Consequently, he forecasts that the Federal Reserve will abandon rate hikes and cut borrowing costs despite rampant consumer price pressures, supercharging inflation to new highs.
Schiff further predicts that this toxic cycle will trigger an unprecedented bond market collapse and a sovereign debt crisis, eclipsing the 2008 crash as national debt rapidly approaches $50 trillion. Under this scenario, he predicts precious metals will soar, arguing that gold near $4,100 and silver around $56 offer prime opportunities to acquire tangible wealth before paper currencies lose their remaining purchasing power entirel; You can contact uh my company, Schiff Gold, and and get your gold and silver now.
I mean, we've pulled back. Gold's around 4,100. Silver's back below 60, around $56 an oz. I think these are good prices. Uh I think the metals are moving a lot higher. On producer prices, if you annualize September's increase, the 1.3% gain, that's 17% annualized inflation at the wholesale level. And obviously, it's going to, you know, come down to the consumer because businesses always pass on their their costs to their customers.
Uh and and the, you know, the CPI numbers that we got yesterday were bad, but these numbers are worse, which means future CPI numbers are going to be worse. So, it is a big problem, and the bigger problem is there's nothing the Fed can do to stop it. Nothing that's politically feasible because we'd have to raise interest rates so high and shrink the money supply and shrink the balance sheet that we would collapse the entire uh economy that's been built on a foundation of of debt and artificially low interest rates.
So, the we're in a very, very precarious uh position right now. It's not even just a recession. It's a complete financial crisis of spectacular proportion. Look, I just put this uh on X today. But during the entirety of the uh to global financial crisis from 2007 through 2010, losses on mortgages, on defaulted mortgages, were about 450 billion.
But because interest rates fell so much, the 90% of the mortgages that didn't default actually rose substantially in value. I think banks had mark unrealized mark-to-market gains of over a trillion dollars on their book of mortgages. Today, unrealized losses on existing mortgages are $2 trillion. You've got um $8 trillion of fixed-rate mortgages that don't mature for another 25 years with an average rate of 4.6 but a current rate of 7.5.
And when mortgage rates hit 8.5, the unrealized losses will be $3 trillion. The The The This is dramatically more than was lost during the financial crisis. And this is without any defaults. This is how much they're losing on the mortgages that don't default. Of course, they'll lose even more on the ones that do.
But the the We We've never been in this situation. So, if the Fed continues to fight inflation, we will have a housing crisis that will make 2008's financial crisis look like a Sunday school picnic. Eventually, it's going to be a bond crisis, you know, a sovereign debt crisis. That That's the only thing that's going to stop the debt train is, you know, a a a crash.
Uh but until then, you know, we're going to go Right now, we're a little over 40 trillion, but we're going to go 45 trillion, 50 trillion, 60 trillion, 70 trillion until there's a complete implosion. Now, maybe that's going to happen before we get to 45 trillion. I you know, I don't know. I don't know where the breaking point is.
I just know that it's there, and we will eventually find it because we're not going to stop until we find it because there is no political incentive to avert the crisis. All the incentives are wait for the crisis. So, the crisis is inevitable. Look at France. Look what's going on there right now. France has almost as much debt to GDP as we do.
Uh so, that there's a big problem there. And you know, there are a lot of other countries in Europe that that have these problems. Look at Japan. Look what's going on there. Look at all the debt they have. Um rates are rising. I mean, the chickens are coming home to roost for all the sovereigns that have been living on borrowed money and selling too much debt.
They all were making hay while the sun was shining. It was great because interest rates were low, so they kept borrowing and borrowing and borrowing without any consideration for the consequences that would ultimately befall them when interest rates inevitably rose cuz they weren't going to stay down forever.
They had to go up eventually. And so, the crisis that we're heading to was inevitable the entire time. That's why I was warning about it for so long. Because I was, you know, obviously I wanted the governments to do something to avert the crisis, but I was pretty confident that they wouldn't, but I at least wanted to sound the alarm so that individuals A can do something to protect themselves, but B, so that when the crisis happened, not only could I say, "Yeah, I told you so." but I could explain why that the crisis was caused by government and by central banks, not by some kind of inherent flaw in capitalism.
If we really had capitalism, the conditions that created the crisis never would have developed. They only developed because of socialism, because of the government interference in capitalism, and what they did to distort the markets and inflate the bubbles that inevitably always pop. Obviously, you can own silver, so but other than precious metals, you can be invested in uh hard assets in general.
You can invest in companies that are in the resource space. So, uh mining companies, not just precious metals, but industrial metals, agriculture, energy. Um and to the extent that you could get good buys even in technology, um you know, just just real assets. I think emerging markets are looking very attractive and a lot of their companies.
You need inflation hedges. You need to own things, not a paper promise. Uh because you know, those promises won't be worth the paper they're written on because inflation is going to erode away their buying power. A foundation built almost entirely on borrowing has put mortgage markets in extreme peril.
Financial institutions currently hold an estimated $2 trillion in unrealized losses on long-term fixed loans, exceeding past crisis benchmarks. Further rate hikes compound this strain by severely damaging commercial balance sheets and destabilizing sovereign borrowers globally, including France and Japan.
At the same time, wholesale producer prices are surging at an alarming annualized rate of 17%, ensuring that elevated input costs are passed directly onto the public. This ongoing financial pressure explains why consumer sentiment has deteriorated to historic 75-year lows. The average citizen is overwhelmed by rising living costs, higher debt servicing, and aggressive currency erosion.
No political incentive exists to avert this impending structural emergency before interest expenses overtake government revenues. Now, let's get back to the interview. I think all the banks that we bailed out in 2008 because they were too big to fail. They're a lot bigger now because of the bailouts, but I think financially they're in worse shape.
As I just said, they're holding all these mortgages. I mean, not all of them, but the majority of the 8 trillion in mortgages that have 2 trillion in unrealized losses are held by the banks. But not only do they have trillions in losses on mortgages, they've got trillion in losses in treasuries that they're holding and and other long-term debt instruments that are on their balance sheet.
And as rates continue to rise, those losses continue to mount. That's part of the problem with the Fed raising rates. The more rates they raise, the further, you know, impaired the the the bank's balance sheet become. And then when these banks start to fail, which they will just like Silicon Valley or Signature Bank, when these banks start to fail, now you've got to liquidate their mortgage portfolios.
And now you have to realize those unrealized losses. So, that that's going to put a lot of pressure on the Fed not to hike rates, to cut rates despite inflation getting worse. And when they do that, then inflation will get even worse than that. I guess we don't know for sure if it's a bubble. I mean, it certainly looks like one, but we don't know because we don't really know what the payoff is going to be on the AI CapEx.
So, if it turns out that the companies that are making this investment can actually earn enough money from these investments to generate a good return, then then it's not a bubble. But, it's possible that they're overspending. That they're not going to be able to generate as much income. And there's going to be a lot of competition in the future that they don't know about yet from companies that may be able to deliver AI at a much lower cost because they didn't make as big an upfront capital investment.
So, we don't know. I mean, there's the idea that, "Hey, you know, if we don't do this, we're going to lose." So, there's a arms race to have as much compute as you can and to build out all these data centers. But, you know, we don't know. I mean, look what happened to all the railroad companies that, you know, that that were started.
And and a lot of assumptions that were made that turned out to have been false. Yeah, railroads revolutionized the country, but a lot of people lost a lot of money on their railroad investments. And you know, that same thing happened more recently with the internet. I mean, look at all the crazy assumptions that were made by all these companies that went out of business.
Uh but the internet certainly changed our lives. AI has the potential to change them even more, but you know, we'll see if the investments that are being made today are you know, are are going to pay off in the future? Or are a lot of these investments going to turn out to have been a waste? We we we don't we don't know.
Everybody's in debt. And now if all these companies want to borrow trillions to build AI, well, interest rates go way up, but who can afford to pay these high rates of interest uh when you've already got so much debt? The key to sustaining the US debt was the low interest rates. That's the reason we could afford it because the rates were so low.
Well, you know, we have a $40 trillion national debt. Let's say it goes to 50 trillion in a couple years. What if interest rates are 8%? That's 4 trillion a year. That's 80% of tax revenue. How can we spend $4 trillion a year paying interest on the national debt? The budget deficit would be 6 or 7 trillion a year because all that money would have to be borrowed.
Right? The only way we can pay 4 trillion in interest would be to borrow the 4 trillion. So that adds to the national debt. So look, there is a ticking time bomb here that that could go off any minute. The home builders for sure, uh the real estate industry is getting decimated. Um I think the banks, I don't know if they're all down 20%, but I think the financials are getting getting beat up.
A a lot of consumer names uh are getting hit hard. Um you know, the the the this utilities, the stocks that are doing well are tech related, AI related, and energy. Energy is also doing well. But the majority of stocks in the S&P are down more than 20% from their highs. So there the majority by definition are in bear markets.
Yeah. think a lot of the smaller companies are are are struggling. Uh the higher interest rates are impacting them. And consumer spending is being impacted. Consumer confidence is the lowest it's ever been. It's the lowest in 75 years of recorded data. It That means that consumers are more concerned now than they were during the Korean War or the Vietnam War or during the Watergate scandal or uh during uh the the the oil embargo and the oil shocks of the '70s and the Iranian hostages or they were uh during the pandemic uh or you know how is it that that that consumers are so worried?
They must be so stressed out in their lives from rising inflation, the higher cost of living, the higher interest rates that they're so concerned about their their circumstances. And of course that flies in the face with President Trump's bogus claim that we're living in the greatest economic boom ever.
Cuz the consumer is behaving like it's the greatest economic bust ever. The only thing that may change it would be if the productivity improvement from AI is so dramatic that prices declined. Now if it wasn't for all the inflation, the prices would decline a lot more. So let's say AI is so productive that it that it causes prices to fall by 20% a year.
Like everything gets 20% cheaper every year. Well, if inflation is you know 22%, then we get 2% inflation. Right? So we still have prices going up. But if we didn't create all this inflation, we didn't print all this money, prices would have gone way down, which would be a good thing. Because it's always a good thing when the things that you want and the things that you need are less expensive.
And it's not bad for business because it's not just the prices that they sell that are coming down, but the cost of production that's also going down. So, businesses can make more money with falling prices provided that their margins are intact because even if their margins stay the same, their volume goes up as price goes down.
So, everybody wins when prices come down. The government, on the other hand, wins when prices go up because they're the ones that create the inflation. They're the ones that spend the new money into circulation. The massive influx of capital into artificial intelligence infrastructure represents a major macroeconomic uncertainty.
While technology companies are spending billions to secure computing power and build data centers, it remains unproven whether these investments will generate viable yields. Historically, massive capital build-outs like 19th century railroads and the early dot-com expansion revolutionized society, yet still bankrupted thousands of overly optimistic corporate investors.
Furthermore, if businesses borrow heavily to fund infrastructure while borrowing costs remain elevated, balance sheet strain will rapidly intensify across the entire tech sector. In genuine free markets, true technological efficiency would lower production costs causing prices across the economy to drop steadily.
Falling costs benefit consumers while enterprises maintain healthy profits by scaling transaction volumes without shrinking margins. Instead, persistent currency creation artificially inflates retail prices neutralizing productivity gains and robbing society of cheaper goods. Governments inherently profit from inflation because they finance deficits by spending newly issued currency into circulation.
Surviving this structural breakdown requires abandoning paper promises and reallocating capital into physical commodities, industrial metals, agricultural resources, and profitable emerging market businesses that own real asse.
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