저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 전 세계 금융시장이 큰 조정 직전이며 주식, 특히 테슬라·엔비디아·마이크론 등 고평가 성장주가 크게 디플레이션될 것이라고 주장한다. 금·은·백금 등 귀금속은 상대적으로 덜 하락할 것이므로 자산의 더 큰 비중을 귀금속에 배분하고, 종이 증권 대신 실물 귀금속을 해외(싱가포르·두바이·홍콩·런던 등)에 보관하라고 권한다. 구리 가격이 사상 최고치인데도 Ivanhoe Mines는 크게 하락해 매력적 진입점이라고 평가한다. 전반적으로 장기적 금융위기 가능성을 경고한다.
다듬은 글
I still think that people should have an allocation to precious metals and probably they should have much more in precious metals than they currently have because when you go out and you talk to people and you say, you know, what do you invest in? And of course they will say yes we have gold but uh how much you know compared to the real estate they own compared to the allocation to semiconductor stocks they own and so it's probably very small and my view is in this world which increasingly looks like uh desperate and uh with wars and uh heading towards a major crisis at some point in future in this environment.
I think people must think how do I lose the least money and precious metals are are probably an instrument how to lose less money. Global financial markets are hovering on the brink of an unprecedented correction as mounting geopolitical friction and debtfueled asset bubbles distort real economic fundamentals.
Most investment portfolios remain perilously overweighted in speculative equities while allocating virtually nothing to defensive tangible hedges. Mark Faber, renowned contrarian analyst and editor of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom report, asserts that an inescapable market reckoning has already begun beneath the surface.
He predicts that overblown equity market valuations are destined to deflate violently, exposing retail investors to catastrophic losses across overhyped technology and semiconductor holdings. While precious metals comprise roughly 1% of global asset allocation and mining companies represent less than 1% of the SNP500, he forecasts that gold, silver, and platinum will withstand the downturn far better than speculative market darlings like Tesla, Nvidia, or SpaceX.
Even if gold faces temporary price dips, physical bullion will serve as the premier wealth preservation tool to minimize overall capital destruction when broader financial assets collapse. Rebalancing out of fragile paper certificates into sound tangible reserves is the single most critical defensive maneuver investors can execute before systemic liquidity dries up complet.
Further decline in gold and silver is of course a possibility. But uh we have to realize that although gold and silver and also platinum have gone up significantly compared to financial assets and to the size of the stock market and the global bond market uh the precious metals are not very large in terms of asset allocation.
In fact, uh, globally, maybe around 1% is allocated to, uh, precious metals and within the S&P 500, mining companies make up for less than 1% of the stock market capitalization. Now I of course I admit that the stock market capitalization is uh probably way overblown. You understand that it's going to deflate very badly.
But despite of that uh within a deflation in financials assets in the size in the stock market and bond market capitalization as a percent of the global economy uh in that scenario I suppose that gold and mining stocks would go down less than say the investors favorite like SpaceX and Tesla. and Nvidia and the micro technology.
So as an investor, I still think that people should have an allocation to precious metals and probably they should have much more in precious metals than they currently have because when you go out and you talk to people and you say, you know, what do you invest in? And of course they will say yes we have gold but uh how much you know compared to the real estate they own compared to the allocation to semiconductor stocks they own and so it's probably very small and my view is in this world which increasingly looks like uh desperate and uh with wars and uh heading towards a major crisis.
is at some point in future in this environment. I think people must think how do I lose the least money and precious metals are are probably an instrument how to lose less money. Well, some precious uh metal stocks they have come down significantly. I mean I I still involved and the large shareholder of Ivanho mines.
Ivanho mines went down significantly and compared to the alltime high in copper that we witnessing at the present time the stock is depressed and offers an a good entry point in my view. But uh I'm a little bit concerned about anything that has to do with paper. Stocks is a certificate is paper. I prefer philosophically and also in an emergency situation I prefer physical precious metals.
And then the question arises where do I keep these precious metals? I wouldn't keep them in the United States. Certainly not in the US where the president could grab it because it's likely that the Trump family will continue to steal goods from individuals. The current macroeconomic landscape mirrors the hidden structural fragilities preceding the 2008 global financial crash, where mounting credit distortions went completely unnoticed until markets collapsed with devastating violence.
While emergency fiscal injections temporarily stabilized the banking architecture, central banks failed to tighten liquidity afterwards to cool down the financial system. Instead, democratic political structures remain permanently trapped in continuous monetary easing cycles as elected officials rely on artificial economic euphoria to maintain voter support.
This relentless stimulus has driven benchmark equity indexes to extreme heights while cultivating severe undesirable systemic risks across global bond and equity markets. Simultaneously, investors face compounding counterparty hazards by relying on paper equity certificates rather than direct tangible property.
Paper representations of wealth carry acute settlement and institutional risks during emergency conditions, making physical asset ownership essential. Even premier resource producers like Ivanho Mines remain deeply depressed despite copper prices touching historic all-time highs, proving that paper equities frequently disconnect from underlying physical commodity value.
Now, let's get back to the interview. I think in my lifetime there will be a major financial crisis and I think it's actually begun. But as crisis develop, they're not visible immediately. You remember 2007, people right to into 2008 didn't realize the seriosity of the credit problems. And then it occurred at the end of 2008 and at the beginning of 2009, but it it then occurred with a [clears throat] violence.
I mean, it it was a devastating crisis, a financial crisis. And to be fair, I mean, it could have been worse if they didn't throw money at the system. The problem is that they threw money at the system and saved the system, but afterwards they didn't tighten liquidity sufficiently to sort of cool down the party.
You you understand 2009 if you recall the mood was very depressed and I mean people thought the world is coming to an end and then things started to improve and uh they launched at the end of 2008 uh Q quantitative easing and the question was then well when will they stop and my view was immediately once a central bank embarked works on monetary easing, it's possible to stop it.
But in a democracy where people are elected based on good feeling and so forth, it's not going to happen. And now we have this quantitative easing and easing of monetary policies that is going on. And to be fair, it's driven the SNP higher. But as I said, it also created side effects that are undesirable.
I think in absence of knowing how the world will look like in five years time and there are many possibilities because Mr. Trump changes his mind all the time and is a very impulsive and they're not exactly a deep thinker but uh I would advise individuals to be diversified and I would advise to be diversified in different asset classes in real estate stocks and precious metals and commodities and uh different sectors within the market.
But I would also advocate uh geographical diversification because say I'm in the US. If I have all my money in gold in the US and suddenly Mr. Trump wakes up in the morning and says, "Oh, it might be a good idea to take the gold away from the citizens and put it in our walls. Then you might be stuffed." I don't think they will do that.
I But I think they will take the gold away and pay for it. But they pay for it in dollars that will then become worthless. So under these conditions, you want to hold some of your assets in other countries, not the US or wherever you are. If you are in Zimbabwe, you want to keep some money outside of Zimbabwe.
and you if you're in Canada, you want to keep some money outside Canada and don't think that you hold something outside a country. If you have a custody account and all the securities are in say State Street Boston or [clears throat] in New York in manufacturers handover or Morgan JP Morgan, you have to have the account actually physically or the precious metals physically in Russia or in China or in Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, uh London, wherever.
So this is individuals should prepare themselves. I tell you people should prepare themselves for I mean really a lifetime crisis that is going to be devastating for asset holders. Devastating. The people have nothing. They are not going to lose very much but they will also suffer because once the people who have assets lose their consumption will decline and there'll be less economic activity.
Relying on standard institutional custody accounts at prominent custodians like State Street or JP Morgan creates an entirely artificial sense of financial security. Holding electronic certificates or keeping gold stored within domestic borders leaves private capital exposed to sovereign intervention, aggressive capital controls, and executive seizures.
When desperate sovereign administrations move to confiscate privately held domestic gold reserves, compensating citizens with depreciating fiat paper that quickly becomes worthless, domestically confined investors are left completely stripped of real value. Achieving authentic portfolio protection requires disciplined geographical diversification across real estate, commodities, and physical bullion stored entirely outside one's home jurisdiction.
Securing true wealth defense means holding unencumbered physical precious metals directly inside independent international hubs such as Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, or London rather than relying on foreign registered domestic brokerages. The downstream economic damage of this impending crisis will extend far beyond affluent balance sheets when major asset owners absorb catastrophic financial losses.
Private consumption collapses causing broader commercial and industrial activity to grind to a halt. As a direct result, everyday citizens who own zero financial assets will suffer severe collateral harm through widespread economic stagnation and shuttered business activity. Establishing segregated sovereign shielded physical reserves remains the foundational pillar for insulating long-term family security. .
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