저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 국채를 매입해 인플레이션을 유발할 수밖에 없다고 주장. 이로 인해 달러가 약세를 보이고 금·은 가격이 가속 상승할 것이며, 장기금리 상승과 모기지 금리 급등(수개월 내 8%, 연말 8.5%)으로 회사채·지방채 위기가 올 것으로 전망. 금 4000달러가 바닥이며 현 가격대 매수를 권장. 채권 약세장 속 금·금광주가 안전자산이라는 주장.
다듬은 글
Kevin Warsh, one of the things that he's said is that inflation is a choice, that we choose inflation. And And that is true. But the reason we choose inflation is because it's the politically expedient thing to do. The other choice is completely unacceptable to politicians and central bankers. So, when push comes to shove, this Fed will make the same choice as the other Feds.
They will inflate. They are going to print a bunch of money, buy but government bonds, and destroy the value of the dollar at you know, even faster than they have been destroying it in the past. Uh so, gold prices are going to accelerate their accelerate their their appreciation. Uh same thing with silver.
Unchecked sovereign debt obligations have trapped central banks in a vicious cycle where genuine monetary discipline is politically impossible. When push comes to shove, fiscal authorities invariably prioritize systemic debt monetization over painful budgetary rectitude. Peter Schiff, veteran investment strategist and Euro Pacific Asset Manager, details the destructive consequences of this inevitable monetary choice.
He points out that the Federal Reserve must inevitably print trillions in unbacked liquidity to purchase government treasuries, destroying the purchasing power of the dollar at an accelerated pace. As freshly created dollars flood the real economy, debt rollover costs will severely rupture credit markets.
He projects standard 30-year mortgage rates will surge to 8% within roughly a month, hit 8.5% by year end, and ultimately reach double-digit territory if interventions persist. Faced with relentless fiat erosion, gold and silver prices are poised to accelerate their explosive upward appreciation as capital flees the debased dollar.
f the goal of the government, and I would I guess throw the Fed in there, is to keep long-term interest rates from rising, then the Fed is going to have to intervene because Treasury doesn't have the firepower to do it. Because the only way the Treasury can buy long bonds is to sell short bonds. Uh so, there's no net, you know, reduction in the Treasuries that are out there.
There's just a a shift in in the maturities. But, that actually puts even more pressure on the budget because if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates, that immediately impacts the cost of rolling over this debt. But, so I think you're going to see a big intervention by the Fed. But, the problem is the way the Fed intervenes is they create more inflation.
They expand the money supply, they create new dollars out of thin air, and they use those dollars to buy Treasuries. But, now the seller of those Treasuries now has cash, and that cash gets spent, and that drives up prices. And as you have higher inflation, that further undermines the value of the bonds that the that the Fed is buying.
And it also creates added incentives for others who haven't sold their Treasuries yet to sell. And so, now the Fed has to buy even more. But, the problem is going to be that even if the Fed is able to keep Treasury yields from rising, all the other yields are going to rise. Uh you know, all the paper that the Fed is not buying.
And so, we're going to have a corporate bond crisis, we're going to have a municipal bond crisis, uh because none of these borrowers are going to be able to afford the higher rates because the Fed is going to be creating much more inflation in order to suppress Treasury yields. And so, that makes everybody else's debt that much less attractive.
I mean, if the Fed is creating 10% inflation because it's buying up all all Treasuries and keeping the yields at let's say 5% even though inflation is 10, investors are not buying the treasuries. The Fed is. But investors are not going to buy other bonds unless the yield is substantially above 10% so they can at least break even plus get a little profit.
So what are the municipalities going to do? They don't have the tax revenue to support that kind of spike in in yields. What about corporations? What about mortgages? Where are mortgages going to be? Unless the Fed starts buying mortgages, you're going to see double-digit mortgage rates. I mean right now they're probably, you know, about seven and a quarter given the move you've had it today, maybe maybe maybe they're getting up to 7.3.
But I think the mortgages mortgage rates are going to be 8% in the US within another month or so and, you know, at the at the rate we're going we could be 8 and 1/2% by the end of the year. Kevin Warsh, one of the things that he said is that inflation is a choice that we choose inflation. And and that is true.
But the reason we choose inflation is because it's the politically expedient thing to do. The other choice is completely unacceptable to politicians and central bankers. So when push comes to shove, this Fed will make the same choice as the other Feds. They will inflate. They are going to print a bunch of money, buy but government bonds, and destroy the value of the dollar and you know, even faster than they have been destroying it in the past.
Uh so gold prices are going to accelerate their accelerate their their appreciation. Uh same thing with silver. Uh the US has weaponized uh the dollar and has used the dollar status as a way to punish countries that don't do what it wants. And so that puts other nations in in a very tenuous position.
The only way out of it is not to have dollars. And so you're seeing countries trying to move away from the dollar so that they take that leverage away from the United States. But of course, it's in their economic interest to get out of dollars because we're going to inflate away the value. And a lot of other countries now have their own problems they have to worry about.
They can't keep lending money to us. Uh they need that money back. So, uh these trends are going to continue. But, when when the dollar really starts to break down, cuz the dollar has held up pretty well against the euro and, uh you know, other currencies and certainly the yen because the yen's been very weak.
Uh but, when the dollar really starts to fall across the board, I think especially in relation to a lot of the emerging market currencies, where I think the dollar, you know, it can be most vulnerable. Uh that's going to really accelerate uh the the movement out of treasuries and and and push yields up even even faster.
Artificially capping treasury yields through balance sheet expansion produces severe structural distortions throughout secondary credit markets. Shifting maturity profiles from long to short-term paper merely increases debt rollover expenses without reducing aggregate obligations. When unsterilized funds injected by central banks circulate through commerce, consumer price inflation intensifies, debasing existing sovereign debt.
Private institutional capital refuses to hold low-yielding sovereign notes against double-digit price pressures, demanding substantial risk premiums on non-guaranteed debt. This rate disparity triggers severe liquidity strain across corporate balance sheets and municipal issuers that lack revenue flexibility to service elevated borrowing rates.
Simultaneously, the geopolitical weaponization of reserve currency frameworks drives international trade partners to abandon foreign reserve accumulation to reclaim economic sovereignty. As foreign creditors liquidate their paper reserves, systemic selling pressure shifts domestic financing costs upward.
Now, let's get back to the interview. When the Nasdaq bubble popped in 2000, remember gold was still under 300. So, gold was very cheap. It really didn't have anywhere to fall. It was still like on the floor. But, when the real estate bubble popped about 2008, gold was about a thousand. So, gold had had a pretty big run.
It had quadrupled. And so, it was vulnerable for a pullback. But, it only pulled back to around 700. It didn't give up all of what it had gained. Mining stocks dropped harder than that, though. Yeah, well, they always do. But, then they came roaring back like they like they do. And gold mining stocks, you know, hit new highs.
You know, they were way up in by 2011, well above their 2008 peaks. Uh and of course, gold at that time got to 1900. But, I think that right now, it's a very different position. I think to me, the gold market looks more like it did in 2000 than 2008 because we finished a long period of basing. Gold basically went sideways from 2011 to 2024.
You had a 13-year consolidation. We didn't really break out until 2024. And we moved from 2000 up to 5500. Now, we've pulled back to about 4000. I think that's the correction. I think it's behind us. And I think the next big move in gold from here is up, regardless of what happens to the general stock market.
And I think that mining stocks are going to follow gold higher. In fact, they may even lead gold higher. Um which would, you know, would would be something that you would expect in in in a bull market. What's happening now, uh with the bond market, with the budget, with the war, with the, you know, the fact that now the Democrats are, you know, are basically regaining uh their popularity, it all of this is is bullish for gold.
I mean, if you were going to write a script that was bullish for gold, you couldn't have written one any better than what is actually happening right now. Yet, a lot of people don't get this. They think, "Oh, higher rates, that's bad for gold. Uh it's it's a it's not that simple. If you actually understand the dynamics, and again, as you pointed out, we had rising interest rates during the 1970s.
That was the best decade we've ever had for gold, and it was the worst decade we've ever had for bonds. Now, bonds have started to perform poorly. In fact, the last 10 years, the return on bonds are the worst in 100 years. So, that means they're worse than the 1970s. And that's because, you know, they started off so high, right?
The yields were so low. But, this is the beginning of something very significant. The the bond bear, you know, is is just starting, and it is going to be brutal. But, the safe haven from a bond bear market is gold. Gold is the alternative to US Treasuries and dollars. Uh so, investors need to be buying, and they need to be particularly paying attention to the values in the mining stocks.
So, I would say, you know, make sure you have physical gold and silver. Buy this pullback. Uh you've got, you know, silver now, uh what, in the mid to lower 60s? Uh 64 and change. We had a big breakout above 50. We've never looked back. You know, we're half now of the we, you know, we overshot. Once we broke out of 50, we went to 125.
We've pulled back. That was is what you would expect. Uh we've pulled back, but we've settled above the old highs. And the silver highs, the double top was formed in 1980. And then again in 2011, and we've taken that out. So, we got a long way to go in this silver bull market. This is a great pullback to buy.
Gold, I don't think you're going to see gold much lower than 4,000 if it ever goes below 4,000 again. It's hard to say. Uh but, if you assume 4,000 is the floor, you're buying below 4,300 today. That's close enough to the floor. I wouldn't worry about, uh you know, trying to tweak it and get an even better buy when the upside potential is so great.
So, you know, go to Shift Gold to get your physical gold and silver. Everybody needs to open up a T Gold account cuz you can open it up for $100, $500, it doesn't matter. You got to get going and then you'll get an email as soon as we got the cards ready, all of the customers are going to get notification how to apply for those cards, but I'm going to be building this ecosystem out.
Eventually, you'll be able to also withdraw a token. Whether I'm going to have my own token that I create to go with T Gold or whether I'll just use like a Tether Gold or something else, but I want to make sure that customers have the option of withdrawing either physical gold or tokenized gold. But either way, you know, you're redeeming your T Gold account, but the idea is, you know, to leave the gold there, you know, and and and let it, you know, use it as a medium of exchange through the platform.
Long-term financial history reveals that rising interest rate regimes provide the most explosive macroeconomic foundation for tangible monetary reserves. During the stagflationary era of the 1970s, surging interest rates coincided with the greatest bull cycle on record for bullion while sovereign debt experienced catastrophic real losses.
Today, 10-year fixed-income returns have plumbed their lowest levels in a century signaling an unforgiving secular bond bear market. Physical precious metals stand as the primary counterweight to depreciating paper obligations. The current setup mirrors the foundational breakout of 2000 rather than the late stage top of 2008.
Having emerged from a grueling 13-year base constructed between 2011 and 2024. Following an initial advance from 2000 to 5500, gold established an enduring technical floor around 4000. Bullion equities maintain pristine asymmetric leverage and historically outpace spot metal during major secular advances.
Silver demonstrates matching strength consolidating above its multi-decade 1980 and 2011 double tops after breaking $50 and touching 125. With sovereign debt losing institutional appeal, acquiring physical holdings near current support levels offers unparalleled wealth preservation. .
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