저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 켄 피셔는 2023년 초 조용한 강세장이 올 수 있으나 개별 가격 예측은 하지 않는다고 말함. [주택가격·경기] 주택가격 하락은 GDP에 약한 마이너스이며 임대료 하락으로 시차를 두고 인플레이션에는 약한 플러스라고 설명. 경기침체를 유발할 정도는 아니라고 봄. [강세장 전망] 12월 중순 기준 4분기 강세 흐름이 나타났고, 이것이 2023년 상반기까지 이어지면 강세장 국면 진입 가능성이 높다고 주장. 10월 1일 시작되는 중간선거 연도의 9개월이 미국 증시에서 가장 수익률이 좋은 기간이라는 근거 제시. [투자 심리] 강세장이 사람들의 회의와 무관심 속에서 진행될 수 있으며, 회의론이 강할수록 더 오래 갈 수 있다고 봄. 전반적으로 펀더멘털이 시장의 생각보다 좋아 긍정적 서프라이즈 가능성이 크다고 언급. [패시브 투자] 지수 펀드(S&P500 등) 자체는 문제가 없으나 투자자들이 이를 수동적으로 보유하지 않고 타이밍 매매를 하는 것이 문제라고 지적. 버틴 자가 이긴다는 버핏 인용. [인플레이션·최저임금] 임금은 인플레이션을 따라가는 것이지 원인이 아니라고 주장. 개별 품목 가격 상승은 인플레이션이 아니며 통화 증가로 확산될 때 인플레이션이 된다고 설명. 최저임금 인상도 물가를 올리는 원인이 아니라는 입장이며, 저임금 노동자에 대한 공감도 표명. [출연자 전망] 단기 개별 종목 가격 방향은 언급하지 않음. 대상 자산에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언 없음.
다듬은 글
this could well be the quiet bull market and it may be one with less Fanfare and more skepticism about its validity so viewers send in questions from time to time and this is what I guess you could call a grab bag collection of questions and so I've got some here that have been sent in and given to me and let me just rattle through some so with home prices sagging across most of America how does that affect the economy and the answer is well home price is sagging uh do negatively impact GDP if if you want to think about it home prices are a leading indicator for defense as home prices fall rents fall later there's a long history that takes about 15 months and so there's a offsetting good part to the bad part because a lot of tenants get a benefit from that but additionally it's true that home construction is a big part of the economy and then the things people put into the houses sofas and refrigerators and all those things are are big too so when home prices fall new construction tends to fall and you get a decrease in GDP this sector alone however in my opinion is not typically it is very cyclical but it's not enough by itself to drive us into recession it does dampen the possibilities for growth as you know everyone knows uh in the aftermath of covid residential real estate prices went through the roof and then more or less peaked out uh in 2022 and since then have been a falling slightly mostly more than the prices going down it's just been taking longer and harder for people to be able to sell a home at the same prices as before but the fact is uh this is a slight negative to GDP uh it's a slight positive on the inflation front with a time lag and that's how it affects the economy another uh what will the start of the next bull market look like you've said there's no capitulation in the form of massive sell-offs trying to find a safe haven this time because all the safe havens are also down will the new bull market start slower and more indecisive compared to past bull markets so I don't really know the answer to that because everything's not all the same I will say to you that as we speak here in the middle of December uh that which I've referred to before as a midterm election year uh fourth quarter midterm Miracle has worked almost perfectly with a very robust fourth quarter uh and no capitulation and if that as I think is most likely extend into a strong first couple of quarters into next year uh which is those nine months being the most consistently profitable period in U.S stock market history the nine months to begin the October 1st of the uh midterm election year that does get you into new bull market territory and yet this could well be the quiet bull market and it may be one with less Fanfare and more skepticism about its validity and that makes it perhaps have a stronger and longer base because the less people believe that it's real and buy into it the longer it probably runs but there's no real way to be sure about any of that and all that you can say is that for the most part features now as I've written and said in so many places look a lot better than people think they do and therefore positive surprise is pretty likely on a pretty regular basis moving through early 2023 and exactly how that bull market takes form is a beyond my ability to detail I just think it requires a certain amount more patience and this is a period where patience is a virtue as Warren Buffett famously said the stock market is a process of transferring money from the inpatient to the patient another one you often mention that many ideas you uh you have worked because people a few people pay attention to them if most were to listen they would not work with so many now advocating the use of passive index funds with the supply here as well if the majority of investors ended up in something like an S P 500 Index would this end up producing low returns no no I don't know that that's true if you define it correctly let's just Define it if they're buying the S P 500 or some comparable type passive indexes and they're being passive with them meaning they buy them and they just sit on them that is not going to move the market up or down compared to the market the tool itself of these passive instruments that mimic an index are pretty near perfect for mimic and in index therefore if they're all buying the S P 500 and if you define the market as the S P 500 you get that less the small cost of owning the index uh the problem uh as I have said it very times in the past is that most people don't do that most people buy the S P 500 Index or some other thing like that small cap index you name it I don't care the NASDAQ you pick any passive index you want and the tool does what you want it to do but the people don't use the tool passively they buy it thinking it'll do well when it doesn't they sell it they get out at the wrong time they buy something else and they shoot themselves in the foot this is a little bit like trying to use uh flat head screwdriver as a chisel or trying to use a flathead screwdriver to put in a Phillips screw or trying to put in a screw with a hammer instead of a screwdriver there's nothing wrong with the tools the tools are all fine they're just being misused and it's really common for people to buy an index fund and not treat it passively but instead in it and out it as opposed to just sitting passively almost no one I don't want to say no one almost no one truly treats passive products passively and that's the problem the last one for this grab bag section is how does minimum wage affect inflation it took a huge jump this year and is set to take another jump next year people have gotten this one wrong most of my life when I was a young man long time ago back when dinosaurs were still floating around that was a joke uh not a good one but it was a joke back in those days there was this concept of cost push inflation that was ubiquitous among economists Milton Friedman in one of his less noted accomplishments proved demonstrably that wages follow inflation inflation doesn't follow wages once you get that in your bones that in wages follow inflation inflation doesn't follow wages you know the answer to this question that this is following the inflation it's not causing inflation now let me just speak about inflation for a moment we got all these products they all got a price that's the price level at a moment in time then something may happen in some form of a dislocation that causes this price to go up that price going up is not inflation that price going up is a problem associated with that product category and in that as it goes up if everything else Remains the Same some other prices to go down because if you want to keep buying some of this you got to buy less of something else putting downward price pressure on that other thing but we intentionally or not at times may as a society accommodate that by allowing money growth to spread that across other prices that's inflation and in fact you always have quite a lot of products that are having their price go up because of problems associated with those particular products like happened earlier this 2022 at the beginning of the year with semiconductor shortages in some categories of semiconductors integrated circuits these kind of things are happening all the time that in and of itself is not inflation that's product specific it's the accommodation of that that spreads it across everything else trying to lubricate the system so to speak intentionally or unintentionally that's the inflation it's the money accommodating the disruption the created money accommodating the disruption any particular wage problem like associated with a union strike or prices going up in one particular category of Labor again that doesn't cause inflation it's following inflation or singularly A disruption in a category unless we accommodate with money creation and spread it across the broader category of prices it's not inflation a price going up makes another price go down if prices are otherwise stable the reality of minimum wage is also true and mind you I feel a great deal of empathy for anyone who works for minimum wage because it says that they don't have enough human capital and or skill and or luck to be able to work for a higher wage which is what surely happens for people that have more education more skill more capability more experience and more luck I I feel empathy for these people but the reality is overall that price going up just means in and of itself another price going down I hope this has been useful in understanding these grab bag questions that come to me keep sending them in I'm delighted to try to answer them when I can thank you very much for listening and I look forward to being with you for another grab back session next month ] thank you foreign
Comments 0