원문 보기
my number one advice to the young people do not do not invest in the present the present it's not what moves stock prices change musom and I want you to I think history is going to win that's once inflation gets about five percent it's never come down without a recession and I think a recession is in the cards I just don't know when we have about depending on who you listen to a trillion and a half to two trillion of excess savings now so it may take some time to work through that savings but given the extent of the asset bubble and the destruction in the markets given what's going on in Ukraine giving zero covered policy in China I don't take a lot of comfort from that so I assume um and I'm pretty strongly assume we're going to have a recession sometime in 23 I just don't know whether it's going to be in the early part or the later part and again the caast the model you can't build over 2 trillion in wealth in purchasing power and then take a trillion of it out and not matter John I also have high frequency um signals and there certainly seems to be a strong correlation between crypto and the NASDAQ I don't think it takes a genius to figure out why so I'm looking as an indicator that way crypto um you know everything that that Charlie Munger says about it I'm sympathetic too everything that says Bill Miller says about it I'm so it's sympathetic too so I think that's a movie that has yet to be played out and one that I don't want to bet on conviction but I will be very surprised if blockchain isn't a real force in our economy say five years from now to ten years from now and not a major disrupter with with companies that will um have been founded between now and then that'll do very well but there will also challenge things like our financial companies and do a lot of disruption so I find crypto interesting my 69th birthday is in a couple weeks I'm probably too old um to compete in an election with the young people in this space but I'm certainly monitoring it I'm not sure why other than NASDAQ type risk play takers are the ones that send to play in Bitcoin and curmudgeons that are gold bugs and want the world to fall apart playing gold but there's no question and this I've watched and it's gone on long enough now that I believe it that if you believe we're going to have irresponsible monetary policy and inflation going forward if it's in a bold face you want to own Bitcoin but if it's in a bear phase for other assets you want to own gold and I think I just articulated the reason but sometimes John I don't care um this is going long on enough that I'm starting to believe what I'm observing and for sure if I think we're going to have an inflationary bull market um I'd want to own Bitcoin more than gold and if I thought we're going to have a bear Market you know stagflation type thing I'd want to own gold doesn't mean I'm going to believe that in a year but that's my assumption going forward from this point it's 85 percent what I've observed but I would also say it's the type of investor um over-the-counter um Fang type investors if they believe inflation and they tend to be younger they want to play Bitcoin uh old curmudgeons that secretly want the world to fall apart they don't own Bitcoin they own gold so but that's kind of cheating because that's kind of a reason I've made up for what I've observed I think I was a tech investor um I would certainly be learning you know we had the internet wave we had the cloud wave Cloud doesn't look like it's over yet but I would certainly be Lo be looking into blockchain very deeply into the possible disruption it might take but I think fundamentals are fundamentals look when companies are losing money capacity is always going to shrink and their margins are going to look better in three years when companies are over earning their margins are going to come down in three years I think all that stuff will be out there I think the great thing about my original Mentor Spirits drellis in Pittsburgh was he made me Focus on what moves the stock price that would be my number one advice to the young people do not do not invest in the present the present it's not what moves stock prices change moves and and I want you to try and envision a different world in a year and a half from now and where these security prices would trade versus now giving the world you envision that would be my number one advice to a young person getting in the business I frankly made a fortune from 82 to 87 I was a Ronald Reagan nut and I was wildly frankly from 95 to 99 I did really well um yeah I look there was a there was an old timer most year um listeners will know this guy Robert Wilson one of the greatest short wellers uh sellers ever it's really cool to make money in short because it's different but any great short seller will tell you they made 90 of their money on alongside the math is with you you you kind of talked about being low conviction now you know you're not actually short equities so maybe you'd like to be or you think you might be in future what do you think getting to higher conviction in the current invite environment might look like oh I think if if the market were to Rally 15 to 20 from here over the intermediate term I'm going to take a shot because six month bear markets preceded by asset bubbles don't exist historically and I think we still have a lot of wood to chop um what's that you're rating for the dead cat pounds you're waiting for the uh well it might not be so dead that's why I'm not still like invested the way I was two or three weeks ago I was quite short um interest rates I want to hear where the FED is I want to follow the company data we're following to see how this thing is unfolding and then of course there's this whole inflation debate and I could see like the FED says food and energy don't count because they're core we'll tell that to a labor union who what do you think they're going to go in there and they're going to negotiate say okay guys don't worry we only need three percent because the core pce is only up four percent we're not worried about the fact that our own cost of living is up 16 so I want to see if that's embedded I want to see all this by the way one of the reasons in addition to low conviction is back to what we're talking about I'm taking a mental break I'm at work but I want to be fresh and this has been a lot of activity the last four or five months and it may be in a week it may be in three weeks it may be three months I'm in no hurry here you're tapering before the marathon you're giving yourself a break before you expect to get pretty busy or I'm in the marathon and I'm not running full out on the on on mile 16.
yes yes um if you were what do you think 20 year old Stan druckermiller today would be getting into or doing differently as you just look at or maybe you know this comes up and as you give advice to you know I know you talk to kind of college students a bunch and things like that but again the investing game has changed a lot and so uh you know maybe it got made more sense to get into bonds back when you could do interesting things there back when the markets weren't so uh so wacky as they are today you have a particular skill set you know you're not going to learn you know entirely new domains maybe a kind of at this stage and so if you have a very sharp very hard working investor who is looking at what should they become an expert in to be really successful where would you be steering them that you know is maybe different to where you play well the first thing I tell them is if you're not really passionate if you don't love this stuff go do something else and I've hired guys with iq's 50 or 60 points higher than me who stink in my business because and by the way they could be off inventing or or starting new companies that could do very well but um I actually think the next four to five years are going to be tailored to the skill set that worked for me in in the 80s and 90s which was all sorts of macro chaos and I would encourage them to learn all the asset categories and how how they integrate not easy if I was a tech investor um I would certainly be learning you know we had the internet wave we had the cloud wave Cloud doesn't look like it's over yet but I would certainly be look be looking into blockchain very deeply under the possible disruption it might take but I think fundamentals are fundamentals look when companies are losing money capacity is always going to shrink and their margins are going to look better in three years when companies are over earning their margins are going to come down in three years I think all that stuff will be out there I think the great thing about my original Mentor Spirits drellis in Pittsburgh was he made me Focus on what moves the stock price like you can't just say Stan okay this is a great company and the earnings are great so tell me how people are going to think differently in 18 or 24 months about the situation than they're thinking now that would be my number one advice to the young people do not do not invest in the present the present it's not what moves stock prices change musum and I want you to try and envision a different world in a year and a half from now and where these security prices would trade versus now giving the world you envisioned that would be my number one advice to a young person getting in the business didn't that happen to a surprising extense during covet that people were always investing in the you know the present where Airlines will never make money again oh actually airlines are fine you know a bunch of Internet beneficiaries are the greatest stocks in the world oh actually maybe they're just kind of normal companies but why it kind of it seems like the stock market was pretty inefficient over kovich why why were people investing in the programs rather than two years out I think it's what you said earlier I think a lot of new investors particularly retail came in and they were rewarded immediately in the early parts of covet supposedly there's like 400 billion in retail in the market now that wasn't there two years ago so they were reward immediately by buying Amazon and buying the stuff you know huge obvious immediate Peloton coveted beneficiaries but they never played the game I didn't have I don't have the nerves I just had but this was the was the best short selling period I've ever seen the last year or two because never before were there such obvious over earners like particularly brick and mortar retail you know you see companies that don't grow for 15 years and all of a sudden um and I'm not talking about Amazon I'm talking about old brick and mortar companies all of a sudden the stocks have quadrupled it didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out two or three years from now oh people start traveling again uh you know companies will will overspend you know all the stuff that typically happens so I think covid was a unique opportunity I think the fact that all this new money came into the market made it even more unique and exaggerated in terms of opportunity is that a common way you make money in equities it's kind of spotting mean reversion or noticing where people are maybe valuing a company based on last year's results as opposed to the study today performance of the business I have a bias toward growth stocks um luckily not so big of a bias that I didn't uh ignore it um the last year or two but I think if you can Envision a company that three to five years from now is going to be in a much much better situation it is today um long-term that's my bias where to go but yes um on a cyclical basis I've always done what you said maybe because one of my first groups was chemicals and they were really easy John when they were losing money you were supposed to buy them because everybody shut capacity down the next two or three years but people are still going to need chemicals and when they bait a month made a bunch of money they used this was the markets were inefficient they used to announce all these capacity expansions so you knew what was going to happen well I've taken those lessons you know forward 30 or 40 years and they still work so yeah I do a lot of counter cyclical stuff but really I'd say the biggest money I made in equities have been in growth stocks over time um when you talk about your bias for growth stocks is Big Tech getting kind of too cheap for you to uh to to not be in it as you look at a lot of um the the Gaffers I mean they they earn very large amounts of money and so is that uh is that something that's starting to become attractive to you not yet I'm just too um I'm too bearish on the world um to go there yet although I will say that they've gotten too cheap for me for them to be my shorts anymore they were widely regarded as uh overearning or over earners in covid and maybe they were early on but it was so widely broadcast the true over earners were things to me like retail Trucking or today ocean ocean shipping companies just have these massive margins I can Envision a world where World Trade is not booming in two years by the way um so I think it wasn't obvious it was obvious who the over earners were the first six months all you have to do is go down the chain and pick them off the last year and a half it's gotten much harder because 80 percent of that set is already down to a place where I'd rather not play and I don't have my sandwich I don't have bonds um to go to and just ignore that world yeah and uh how about energy you mentioned the world being short energy how do you actually um put that into uh how do you actually trade that we're there I mean it's been widely publicized people looking at 13 apps by the way which I would caution against because that's old data and in this case with us it's true um very nervous because it's not the unique thesis it was six months ago in terms of looking out 18 months where these companies might be but I think the reasons we're still there is we just see this thing as being more sustainable because of ESG and all the reasons we all know about um that it can last a while and that doesn't seem to have been priced in the stocks
Comments 0