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welcome back and we are going to Australia in 2023 for the equity markets with perhaps the best known veteran of Indian markets ramdev Agarwal chairman and co-founder of financial services joins us now good morning ramdev I wish you a very prosperous 2023. thank you very much for starting it with us yeah yeah amen very good morning and very good uh very happy New Year to you and all CNBC viewers thank you Happy New Year to you as well how are you feeling about the market uh okay I'm like see it's not there's no excitement of uh grossly undervalued market so you're going to rock it or something like that so and then Global uncertainties are too many so right now it's a kind of a subdued thing but GST collections are very well held up that's one data which is that gives you confidence that things are all right so I think things are all right till November December so I think I would believe that 23 will be we're starting in a very strong note of economic activity uh heading into a lot of Elections and things like that and worst of global uncertainties you know still local and war is on still inflation war is not over China is still struggling with the code so I think we are we have more of the same from 22 and hopefully first half will be someone like this second half let's say as six months is very long period yeah and if we overcome those then we could have a glorious yeah I mean I don't Focus that much on uh you know where the market is headed I'm more focused on where my stocks are my stuff I'm coming to that I'm coming to that see first of all congratulations you've moved into a new house you know what real estate is Lam tell us if that's going to be you know another Trump cardio another big year for Real Estate stocks yes stocks are different from the real estate real estate itself is very expensive I mean it is in Mumbai What I Hear Andheri juhu and all they're more closer to 75 80 000 per square foot for a worthwhile ready stock so that seems to tell me that uh ah there is a very good market now the issue is how do you execute how many uh how much inventory you can deliver in the marketplace and how your authorities are really hearing this as a problem rather than as an opportunity to you know to kick start the account yeah so I think if they push the system well and permissions and all the hurdles are being cleared because if Government wants or bureaucrats want to clear the hurdles they can clear it overnight so once that thing is done then it is for the entrepreneur to play the game of uh quick completion custom consumers will demand so I think so should I understand that you don't want to play uh real estate as one of your top bets they are not see for me year of 23 will be practicing consistency because that's what the wealth question study we did okay and they are not particularly consistent consistent performers you know and so yes of course we'll look at it some of the some of the bigger ones who are stable large and they have the actually they have the potential to be consistent but they don't the way they have played in last 10 15 areas that has not been very consistent so I think now era has come playing around is very very much more what you call certain I would say consistent I would say so it is for the entrepreneurs in real estate to deliver particularly the corporate entrepreneurs who have come in they have a large opportunity to deliver very predictable performance going forward into and as we see those things are happening maybe we'll start getting interested slowly into the sector okay you can wait uh you know a director very helpfully pulled up all the sectors that moved last year and which didn't and the big trade really was going long on Banks and short on it yes what do you think the big trade of 2023 will be yeah so I was wrong in it I was right on the banks thank you very clear that yes it's going to happen but I didn't know it will be but you know these two are like literally 25 each or actually bank is bigger if you combine private in public so the financial government lenders are like more like 30 32 percent yeah uh banks are sorry it is about uh 23 24 total corporate profits now uh I don't think both can do well together the way uh index is constructed I don't think both can be at a high I mean anything can happen in the market but I'll be very surprised that Banks and ID both will be at a high if a bank is at High I mean can you believe that people are selling I mean it's down by 25 30 and PSU banks are by 70 so that's the contrast you're seeing you know so I think markets are rotating and there was a excess kind of depression in PSU per se all the psus uh literally no wealth was created in fact they were the biggest destroyer of wealth in last five years and now I think finally enough is enough and there is some rally in this particular but we need to go for more the bank looks like our banks definitely has some more esteem because uh there's a credit cycle they're not they're not they've just started lending they have to get into bad lending okay before the trouble strikes and you will know first you know when when there is exuberance exuberance and uh and exuberance will not happen in the same place where it happened last time last time it happened covered loans this time I don't know where it left so since we're talking about Banks I had to ask you about the HDFC group you know we put out a study where we talked about how uh all the stocks HDFC Bank htfc AMC htfc life the valuations are looking attractive and there's been a large degree of underperformance in the last many years yeah you think the fortunes will turn this year they said I don't know but it will turn because markets can take much longer than you and me can forecast but if there is a value if they keep growing at uh 20 plus and the P multiple remains at 20 I don't think it can stay for very long such a credible uh name and and that if there was a fear about the transition or the change over merger and changing leadership and all even that will be proven in next I mean it's already two years another year or so I think then people reassess and what happens is that there were things which were below HDFC so they have come up now they will be at HDFC level and Market would want them to go ahead but it cannot go ahead unless HDFC also pulls up so you know it's a relative kind of a situation my sense is that better days are ahead in terms of valuation earnings will come whatever for the sector and the companies but it is more about the in fact the bigger game in the market I mean if you see the rating the rating on 12 month basis is not so much about the earnings it's about the change in the P multiple okay like say price at a public sector Banks were at 0.2.3 Price to Book now there at closer to one time yeah and that's why they are three x two x five x not because the earnings are earnings are that much bigger there's more faith in them okay I'm looking at your top 10 consistent wealth creators yeah you know out performance number of uh outperformance years is five so you have over there the alkyl amines actually you have it companies there mind reality is protected so in spite of the uh you know not so great here for it you persist with some of your gyms yes is very large allocation and it is very high quality very consistent the issue is that where the growth is and see it will grow now whether it will grow at five percent or twenty percent so Market thought that post covered the kind of search came there they thought that it will continue for some more time at 20 but little they realize that attrition uh so attrition and slow down in U.S economy that could take little toll on the immediate growth but I think India's Foundation is on i t so we should not be too much underweight okay you know the other few say like is it only cheap enough for you for people to you know over allocate completely away from it because it's so unpopular okay see for the whole year you've done 25 months what more do you want to uh you know you may not get those products again right markets are at 22p yeah see we have to look at everything in related terms if in juhu uh the uh average rate is 70 000 and the house you are looking at is say ninety thousand it's only 15 premium so what you are looking at today say TCS would be about 25 26 that's a leader or Infosys would be more like 23 24 and your index is 22.
so are you thinking that in Infosys TCA is just about 10 premium to the whole lot of Indian economy no that's true that's a nice uh you know there are these Pockets which did really well last year whether it's a defense rail psus psus in general is there Merit in adding more to these names uh Frankly Speaking I've not done a lot of work but uh because the kind of at border uh government's commitment to become much more uh uh what you call Upper neighborhood on defense procurement and uh and the size of the Quran which has become bigger borders are not very uh you know friendly right now so I think the Tailwind is very strong now uh how see the only thing is that it's little lumpy you know so you have to look at the companies which have done well in the past and they are monopolistic you know all of them are monopolistic which are more acetylied you know but I think uh Frankly Speaking that could be very interesting sector to see okay Home Improvement as a theme I mean you have astral in your consistent performance list more like that maybe essentially apply I don't know what you think of as Home Improvement Etc yeah see if Indian economy ah keeps growing at six percent plus I mean like for 23 24 the prediction is all the pandas they are talking about six percent plus if that six to seven percent it comes in with that say five six percent inflation and you talk about ten twelve twenty eleven percent nominal GDP growth rate and if that is associated with say one twelve thirteen percent corporate profit growth I'm not asking for two fifteen twenty percent twelve thirty percent I think will do very well okay no it's not over six sir the average is lying between five and a half and six but even then your nominal GDP at 12 because now raw model prices are little lower than last year yeah so I think there will be a little more recovery on the uh corporate profit side and and hence it should match the earnings give us the alpha that that is your comment for the earnings as a whole yeah right 15 earnings or 13 earnings yeah where will the alpha see chemicals was once a big season you know and alkyl amines and stocks like that would srf would all these still be a way to go where would you see Alpha sectors if you don't want stuff sectors or even stocks I mean whatever you feel uh you know depicts the alpha well yeah so no no what happens is that the cons the consistency which they have shown in the past they will continue most of them they will continue so don't go too much away from the ones which are performed in last 10 15 years what the the problem is that we are too much focus on future we don't look at the past and the guys who are performed in the past yeah they are the guys who are going to perform most likely I mean like not 100 but 70 80 said those are the guys to look at now say like you said Australian they have not done well because the polymer prices went through the roof it could be the time for this die hard you know uh you know fast Runners for them to come back you know so I would look at them I mean the companies which are which are performed very well but they are right now literally out of favor like entire ID they have done very well so now is it the time is it after five six months that I don't know what about New Age tech companies this is the time to buy I mean digital companies start start studying there because they will change the track lastly they said growth growth growth at a loss so they were they were they were not ashamed of incurring losses they were very proud of incurring a lot of losses now they are saying we have to we have to get into profitability like baiju said we want to be in the profit this year itself so that kind of change but saying is one thing doing is actually making profit to the extent of the market cap see basically they have ten thousand twelve thousand crores cash so of course first level of valuation is that there was that much because outside that they're incurring losses so to justify say from 10 to say Thirty thirty five thousand forty thousand that is for additional thirty thousand they have to show that they can make that much profit there's not a promise but we bought the promise last year but now the life has changed today you are saying show me the money and then I'll give you the valuation so would you buy now would you just wait to see profitability I would now having burnt the figures once I will look for that profits to be visible okay okay finally about the premiumization we called Bajaj Auto we've spoken to uh people on the channel everyone speaking about premamization and two wheelers generally generally yeah even cars you know premiumization seems to be the theme so would you look at people who cater to the upper class you know your favorite Titan stocks like that is that a theme or is it Staples what caters to rural like say you said Titan Titan per se is about not primation not that much about the primage it's more about from unorganized to organized now we know the jewelry market you go to any City they are not number one Titan is not number one in any City they are number four five there are four five local Jewelers who are number one so I mean in in 30 40 series also if they come anywhere close to number one I think the size will be gigantic okay all right thank you very much ramdev and hope you have a superb 2023 yet again thank you okay okay well we have to wrap up and there is a very important supreme court judgment awaited on demonetization that after the break with apapan Bazaar and this book coming up for you
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