저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
CARES Act 2(4차 부양책) 전망 영상. 바이든·트럼프·므누신 등 정치권 발언을 정리하며 초당적 합의 여부에 따라 추가 현금 지급(체크) 가능성이 좌우된다고 설명. 시간이 갈수록 부양책 필요성이 줄어 체크 지급 가능성이 낮아진다고 보며, 렘데시비르 임상 결과가 협상 방향을 바꿀 수 있다고 언급. 주식·자산 가격에 대한 직접 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here with an update on cares Act number two in case you're not familiar yet cares Hank number two is supposed to be our phase four stimulus package and today I want to provide you updates with what all of our elected representatives are saying about cares Act number two because that's going to be our best guidance to know should we actually expect additional stimulus easiest way to know is by see what people are saying now we'll talk about what folks are saying in a moment but just to catch you up to speed remember Karis act 2 is going to be our fourth phase of stimulus phase one was money for testing phase two was money for paid leave and worker protections and health care protections phase three was the popular one that was cares Act number one cares Act number one was of course responsible for those a IDL $1,000 grants the $600 per week and of course the 1200 dollar stimulus checks plus $500 for dependents under 17 years old well then came phase a 3.5 which just sort of refunded or added money to the pot for Karis act number one but now it's time to move on it's time to talk about phase four cares Act number two to get a taste of what cares Act two might look like we've already reviewed a lot of proposals in the house and in the Senate in the Senate for example we have the hero's proposal which is suggest increasing pay for essential workers and creating incentives for those workers to get back to work and stay at work especially as companies are seeing high levels of absenteeism we have another Senate proposal called the getting America back to work act for testing and more health care we've found the emergency money for the people's act over in the house which offers $2,000 per person above 16 years old and then we have the automatic boost to communities Act which offers $2,000 per month during the crisis and $1,000 after the crisis via either direct deposit or on a debit card then we even have the rent and mortgage cancellation Act which would give the government very strong powers in creating a lot of affordable housing giving the government the first right of refusal anytime a multi-family apartment building owner wanted to go to sell well you know what the problem with all of these proposals is they're all introduced by Democrats but my goal in this video is not to take sides it's to look at both sides so that we can understand where is there an overlap because wherever we see an overlap that's probably what's most likely to happen fringe proposals and fringe ideas probably aren't going to happen so to start it's helpful to think about the last time we had stimulus checks it was in 2009 through something known as the Recovery Act which actually passed with support on both sides of Congress the House and the Senate and Joe Biden was put in charge of the Recovery Act or at least oversight for him and Joe Biden finally started talking about his thoughts on stimulus so let's start with Joe Biden and then let's compare Joe Biden to what Trump's saying to what our Treasury Secretary's saying what other senators and representatives are saying and we'll get a clearer picture as to what's going on Joe Biden was recently interviewed by a Politico and in his political interview he suggested he wants to bring in rusher in the biggest son of a be stimulus package possible he's tired of greedy as hell corporations taking money and instead wants to see ordinary people getting help for a change the people risking their lives working for $8 an hour those are the people who deserve help Joe suggests spending trillions of dollars on infrastructure projects potentially like light rail projects or clean drinking water or support for electric cars anything we can do as a government Joe Biden suggests to stimulate the economy bring people back to work and make assure America grows is exactly what we should be focusing on in this next round of stimulus and what his goals are if he becomes president Joe Biden also blames Trump for bailing out corporations and not focusing enough on the people which this is obviously a very populist argument the more we can focus on ordinary people instead of the wealthy elite the more populist the argument unfortunately in Joe Biden's interview there was no mention of additional stimulus checks two individuals despite Nancy Pelosi's push for more direct payments to people like you or me now since this is obviously an election year I think there's zero chance phase four stimulus aka cares act number two won't be politicized so I think this is where it's helpful to look directly to the Trump camp and see what they're saying about phase four because again everywhere we see an overlap is going to be a positive sign of something actually happening interestingly when we switch over to the Trump camp and we listen to what treasury secretary Steve minuchin says we hear Steve say no we don't bailout corporations we may give loans to corporations but we don't bail them out which is very interesting and actually kind of complicates figuring out the difference between the Joe camp and the Trump camp and where the stimulus will end up being see and I think that's because Donald Trump has actually taken a very populist approach to fighting this pandemic which is kind of unconservative when you think about Democrats versus Republicans Donald Trump has taken sort of a real estate investors point of view and a said hey you know what interest rates are dirt cheap let's build let's spend money let's build on infrastructure let's give money to hospitals and schools and to state and local governments let's continue to spend so that we can win this war which is exactly what Treasury secretary Steve minutiae continues to echo we will spend what we need to to win this war which is kind of weird but also kind of a good thing because basically what you have here is you have both presidential candidates talking about spending big and big government which is usually not what you get between a Democrat and a Republican well maybe this is just representative of what our expectations are right now according to a Wall Street Journal and NBC poll we find that for every two people who are for the government spending more money there's only one person who doesn't want the government to spend more money which the last time we really had a president that said you know what let's not spend a lot more money with way back with Reagan in 1981 Ronald Reagan said in this present crisis government is not the solution to our problem government is the problem but even though it looks like Joe Biden and Donald Trump and Treasury secretary minutiae NAR all for spending more on our country and it seems like we have consensus on that side of things there is a lack of consensus in where it might initially matter and that's in the house of Congress and the Senate and also amongst all of us there's a reason there are a lot of groups of people protesting lockdown orders because we don't yet have consensus so we know that Joe Biden wants more spending we know that Donald Trump and the Treasury secretary want more spending and we know that Democrats in the house want more spending but what about the people missing the Republicans in the House and in the Senate well in the house we have Republican leader Kevin McCarthy who in a Fox interview recently said in regards to a fourth package every Great Society has collapsed when overextended the money that we spent plus what the Fed has issued we have spent seven trillion dollars it's time to check the results first and see in Kevin McCarthy's interview this morning I think we can actually start seeing some of America's deep rooted fears coming out socialism when Kevin McCarthy was asked about socialism like hey is this going to lead us to socialism if we keep spending money like this Kevin McCarthy's kind of dodged that question but said let's implement this first and let's see where we go before we react to anything which is very similar to what Republican senator Mitch McConnell says in the Senate and Mitch McConnell leads the Senate he's also been in the Senate for like 30 years but that's possibly because right now our country is most primed to see universal basic income which is obviously the platform that Andrew yang ran under when he was a presidential candidate right now if Andrew yang were still in the race he would have free publicity every single day unfortunately for us as Watchers not as Democrats or Republicans or I don't care what side you are I'm just trying to be neutral here unfortunately for us as Watchers who are interested in more checks these deep-rooted fears over socialism and Universal basic income are actually going to be the countervailing force against Republicans in both sides of Congress being okay with more stimulus checks my belief now in response to what we're hearing from people like Mitch McConnell and from Kevin McCarthy both Republicans we've now seen Treasury secretary Steve minutiae update his stance a little bit which initially Steve minutiae and the Treasury Secretary's like yeah let's pump out more money into the economy well now we're starting to see him will line more with Republicans which anytime you have that what do you get you get more of a divide you get more partisanship rather than bipartisanship or people working together which is going to hurt the prospects for more stimulus checks in fact this morning this is what Steve minuchin says Steve minuchin sees a strong bounce-back in our economy in July August and September after we reopened the economy in May and June he says we have unprecedented liquidity and you will see a demand rebound you'll see smaller loans through the paycheck protection program to smaller businesses and when it comes to the next stimulus bill we will only pass it with bipartisan support yes we're willing to spend more but we will only pass it with more bipartisan support I'm paraphrasing here but what's important about this is he's kind of pulling back his initial thoughts on yep let's just keep spending let's keep spending let's keep spending and now aligning more with Republicans suggesting you know what we're only going to pass essentially where we have an overlap which again so far is state and local governments schools hospitals nothing about Jenks and then of course on the more extreme side of the spectrum we do have a senator Mitch McConnell who did suggest that if states needed to there might be a path through bankruptcy for them which usually when we hear bankruptcy it has a very negative connotation the bankruptcy can often be a good way to sort of restructure your debts although sometimes people and companies get burned so nobody likes to hear the word BK and Mitch McConnell got a lot of flack for than suggesting this in fact andrew como of New York the governor of New York said you will see a collapse of this national economy if states get pushed into bankruptcy but this is starting to show us exactly what we have this is my distillation of what's going on on the left side we have Democrats and checks on the right side we have Republicans and wait in the middle and this is weird to say but in the middle we kind of have Trump schools state local roads and hospital spending we kind of have Biden in the middle although I'd suggest with his verbage he's slightly closer to checks than Trump which is weird to say but I'm only saying this because Trump has that real estate investors coming out going hey money's cheap let's so yeah let's so let's spend anyway then then we have manoosh in who's starting to kind of counterbalance and is leaning more towards the UH you know what maybe we should wait we have spent a lot of money we're willing to spend and that's why he leans more towards the middle but we could also wait and then on the far extreme side we have Mitch McConnell who has a whole host of nicknames for basically being very extremely on one side and then of course you have any equal set of nicknames for Pelosi who's also known as basically being on the complete polar opposite side but anyway something to keep in mind is that some of these proposals we've been reading like the boost act the boost act by the way was the one that said two thousand dollars to every person plus a thousand dollars after the crisis is over for a year yeah the boost Act was actually introduced by a Democrat in the house of Congress who helped introduce the legislation to impeach Trump so you could see this is going to turn into a massive political disaster the next few weeks in Congress are going to be very very ugly but there is something that is going to tilt things towards checks or towards more waiting and that's data and there's a big set of data coming out that I'm going to mention in a moment but just to kind of understand right now what Cara's act too is going to look like let's just go ahead and erase everything on the right and erase everything on the left and we're kind of left with half a Biden and half manoosh in Trump school state local roads and hospital spending so what do I think the biggest thing is that's going to lien us towards either checks or more waiting which just a heads up more waiting probably reduces the odds of getting checks if we lean in the direction of waiting the necessity of checks will go away so I think there'll be less support for more stimulus checks the more time goes on if anything's going to happen it's going to happen within the next few weeks which means we might see checks as early as June but to understand this we're gonna have to look at a piece of data that's coming out this week it's gonna shake this up completely before I mentioned that I do just want to invite you to join me I discuss stocks real estate investments and I help you make financial decisions in your life so that you can get ahead and finally build wealth if you join any of my awesome programs linked below you could use that coupon code that's down there you will be able to join every single day the markets open of course you'll find the link for those programs deposit just $100 with the stock trading platform weeble and you'll get two free stocks valued up to $1400 which is of course right next to where you could sign up for a super easy to do and you can Apple or Android pay for it this is going to be what shifts the balance of power in Congress the remm des Vere trials report their results this week the official US results the first indications from China are not very good the Ren des Vere drug is the potential cure or treatment for well the thing that's causing the outbreak but I won't mention that word because every time I do I get demonetized anyway initial results of this not very good at least from China although Jim Cramer from Mad Money will tell you that the Chinese results are bogus wait for the US results well those come out this week if those results are bad and we do not end up with at least hope of a cure more stimulus checks might be possible that might be what tips the scales in favor of checks rather than waiting however if that REM does of your drug does well and we think we can get a treatment at the same time as reopening the economy and that is going to be the best argument the Republicans have for waiting which the more we wait the less likely there will be more stimulus checks these trials are expected to report their results by April 30th so stay tuned this is big now I want to hear from you what do you think do you think that more stimulus is just a step in the direction of universal basic income and the Republicans will do anything in their power to squash that just like Andrew Yang's campaign unfortunately got squashed and this isn't me taking sides I feel bad for anybody's campaign getting squashed or do you think the Republicans are right to say you know what we've got enough debt let's wait and see anyway let me know your thoughts on all of this down below super curious I love hearing what you all have to say remember you could join my discord chat for free as well I like to hang out in the discord and chat with you all ]







Comments 0