저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
대규모 재정부양과 국가부채 확대로 결국 시장 폭락과 자산 헐값 매각이 올 수 있다는 우려로 시작하지만, 케인즈 경제학과 화폐 유통속도, 기술 효율화를 근거로 디플레이션 성향 경제에서 통화 증발이 하이퍼인플레이션으로 이어지지 않을 것이라고 주장한다. 결론적으로 부채 증가 속에서도 부유층은 자산(부동산·주식)에 투자해 부를 키운다는 논리이며, 금·비트코인 보유를 권하는 시각은 소개 후 반대 입장을 제시한다. 영상 말미에는 교육 프로그램과 보험 가입을 홍보한다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin hearing crazy times like this it seems like there's no other possible outcome other than a massive crash to reset everything and make real estate sell for pennies on the dollar and stock sell for pennies on the dollar as well to give us all the opportunity to get in and get invested finally because after all where's all this stimulus coming from it's just being printed out of thin air and added to the federal budget deficit that is the debt keeps getting larger and larger and larger not only is the federal debt growing and growing by the year now over twenty four trillion dollars but a household debt in the United States continues to grow and explode as well how can there not be a massive crash a massive reset especially as we continue to debate more and more stimulus and don't get me wrong I want my free money too but I can't help but think that I'm borrowing from my children to line my pockets now and it makes me wonder what are the outcomes of this because if the outcomes are gonna be a big crash I may as well not invest now I may as well wait so today I want to go through the journey of what is this all going to turn into what is all this extra debt and printed money actually lead to let's talk about it and trying to figure it out together and then I want to know what you think so a lot of economic theory today comes from this dude John Maynard Keynes and basically from his ideas they created this concept of Keynesian economics see they took his last name in that at I am all right let's put that away anyway his theory was essentially that when times are bad the government should spend like crazy to make us all feel a little bit better to give us stimulus and just make the pain stop and that's kind of what Treasury secretary Stephen ushion saying this is a war and we need to win this war we will do whatever it takes even if that means adding trillions of dollars to the debt and then john maynard keynes says that well when times are good that's the time for the government to step in and regulate and tax so essentially what we're doing is we're trying to soften the bad and kind lift everybody up when things are bad and kind of dampen the fun and take the kool-aid away the punchbowl away when times are good so in other words we hate them when times are good and and we need them when times are bad is the role of government essentially that that's the theory the basic theory of Keynesian economics and the premise is that it's during those bad times we'll have debt that'll grow but it's okay because then the good times will just pay off that debt again the problem is that hasn't really been happening in fact the last time we tried to pay off that debt in 2018 Jerome Powell almost crashed the economy he pretty much tanked real estate a good 12% instantly and tanked the stock market at the end of 2018 pretty damn hardcore so that it makes you wonder how could your own Powell live with himself cranking out the dollars and given us all the stimulus money just add in to the debt if it's just gonna saddle us with more and more obligations in the future well to understand this I had to go back to the dollar and thinking about money what what does money do for us and what does it actually mean so then I thought to myself okay well what happens if I go buying a hot dog I feed myself the guy gets a dollar what does he do with that dollar well he's gonna give it to his son and the sun's gonna go buy a lego and the guy who packaged the Legos together on eBay is gonna take that money and go spend it at Target so that way the next time the Target employees stock up toilet paper the Target employees got a dollar to spend on toilet paper before we can get our hands on toilet paper in other words the dollar moves around a lot and I get it that's called the velocity of money in fact when we do something as simple as taking a dollar and putting it into our bank account it moves through the economy about 1.4 times so in other words $100 in our bank account moves through the economy about $140 worth of money it's kind of like creating money it's weird but if we take that same dollar and we spend it on the hotdogs it actually moves through the economy about 5.5 times which means a hundred dollars spent on hotdogs kind of creates $550 worth of wealth and so obviously the more Jerome Powell cranks out money and prints money the wealthier we could all be I mean it gives us more money more stimulus means I get to go buy myself some new shoes or some new shades or maybe I'm just gonna invest it in stocks and let some other dude who just sold the stocks go buy some shoes and some nice shades yeah that would work do so in other words when money is printed demand goes up but wait a minute if demand goes up that means prices are gonna go up right I mean if if all of a sudden instead of one person in line at the hotdog stand there are 10 people in line at the hotdog stand the hotdog guy is gonna go out screw charging a dollar for the hotdogs I'm gonna start charging more and we start thinking about this is gonna cause inflation and inflation we're gonna end up like Zimbabwe or Germany about 5 World War 1 standards where they're moving around with wheelbarrows of cash and their money is completely worthless yeah well that's where the drama stops in fact that's exactly what does not actually happen when money is printed even though that's what we believe is going to happen it's not how our modern economic system works what what I just explained to you is economics 101 but the reality is economics are much more complicated and when we actually peel back the layer we go oh that's what's happening and guess what happens once we know what's going on in the engine we know how to actually make money in the system because remember what they say if you can't beat the game play the game actually I'm pretty sure it's if you can't beat them join them but we'll just go with it let's go back to the hot dog dude and think about real economics let's actually peel back the layer here what happens when the dude now has 10 people in line at his hotdog stand does the guy immediately raises prices no actually what do we do in America we start thinking to ourselves you know what I need a faster hot dog cooker I need to be able to produce more hot dogs so I could sell more hot dogs the price doesn't necessarily go up what happens is Americans become more innovative when we start thinking of well how am I going to become more efficient so I can fulfill this increased demand in fact think about it this way when cars were produced in the year 1905 and the Model T was on the factory line how efficient did the factory have to be not very because very few people could actually afford the car so additional efficiency didn't matter but as soon as more people began being able to afford cars what happened well then if Chansey had to increase prices didn't necessarily go up they actually came down that his cars became more affordable and so what happened more people ended up with cars that's the opposite of inflation that's actually deflation so as there's more demand and more money as printed we actually end up seeing corporations and business owners look for more ways to satiate that demand and end up creating more efficient technologies and actually bring down prices this is weird how else can we think of this though because this is odd this doesn't completely make sense well if you lived in 1900 and you were living paycheck-to-paycheck you might be living with Joseph that is he might be living in a brothel if you live paycheck to paycheck in 1950 you might be living in a 3-bedroom 2bath with one TV and one car in the 1980s if you were living paycheck-to-paycheck your family might have moved into a four-bedroom two-bath house you might have had two TVs and heck maybe two cars and maybe even a cell phone and today in 2020 even a paycheck-to-paycheck family might have multiple cars multiple smartphones multiple computers multiple TVs access to Amazon access to immediate two-day or one day free shipping and most of the luxuries that people who are not paycheck-to-paycheck have now I'm not talking about yachts and exotic vacations and Hamptons but basics iPads phones laptops luxuries that actually make us much more efficient and give us the capacity for building our wealth in other words ironically the more money is created in our society the wealthier we become over time whether we realize it or not and this is really interesting because it's gonna give us a look into how do we make money in an era of your own power burning money yeah well to understand this we have to peel back the layer of debt we have to understand how debt works usually when you or I think of debt we think well I oh I must repay that's what we're taught I take out money to borrow against a car so I can own a car I only have to put 5 grand down today and I Drive off that lot with a brand new forty thousand dollar car at some point I gotta pay that money back same thing goes for a house anything goes for what I borrow against my stocks on margin I gotta pay that money back if I borrow from Peter I should be paying Peter back at some point in the future even if I'm temporarily payin Paul well in 1694 the British government borrowed 1.2 million pounds and guess when the British government repaid that 1.2 million pounds never instead guess what they did they said to a group of merchants from whom they borrowed the 1.2 million dollars or pounds hey how bout you all just print some money and write on it I oh yeah and we'll call it a banknote and you know we'll get back to you in the future well that established the first central bank that we modernly now think of as the Federal Reserve aka Jerome Powell and the most powerful printer in the world where he can print money and now he can even do it digitally he just changes a number to spreadsheet and boom 2 trillion bucks for the United States Treasury here you go Steve manoosh in you need another 2 trillion dollars here you go Donald Trump you want to sign some checks no problem yeah oh wait nope change spreadsheet OOP up done go to bed fine but I mean at some point this debt has to be paid off right well let's look at a recent example of countries that actually tried to pay off their debt let's look at Portugal Italy Greece and Spain you might know these countries by their derogatory acronym known as unfortunately the pigs the reason they received this acronym is because their countries trying to pay off debt through strict austerity measures over the last 10 years in fact austerity is almost seared into our brains is something that's terrible that made people poorer instead of wealthier in other words as soon as these countries try to start paying off debt and stop spending what happened their cities started decaying the people stopped spending money and the overall welfare of the people became worse enough to leave them with a disgusting and derogatory label like the pigs Portugal Italy Greece and Spain but these problems weren't just isolated to those countries they echoed throughout all of the European Union and so now one of the world's strongest and largest economies in Germany basically sits at zero growth along with the rest of the European Union see you know how in America we say things like ha ha the 30-year mortgage is now under 3% when you want to go buy a house well this is why you get people like the Germans in Germany going PAH 3% V have 1.5 percent interest rates I can make fun of Germans because I'm German okay ich break you don't anyway the point is there's so little growth in European countries that their interest rates are so so low because nobody wants to invest in other words the countries have focused so heavily on being that bavarian housewife that is going to cut the budget and everything will be paid off and we will have no debt that growth has essentially been eradicated from the economies that's not a political reference or a slam at housewives okay that's that's a reference to Angela Merkel okay she goes by like the mother of Germany all right I'm just trying to be PC here okay I don't care if you're left right or center she's trying to explain what's gonna happen in America so you know how to make money okay okay but all this said I mean America has had to have paid off some of its debt in the past well let's look at World War two for example World War two cost right around 250 billion dollars and at the time the United States economy produced about 250 billion dollars worth of production you ever heard of the gross domestic product yeah that was 250 billion and they literally spent all of it in other words an entire year of production for the entire United States was gone spent on World War two but that was borrowed money and the economy just kept growing so when was that 250 billion dollars repaid never it was never repaid in fact it's just part of the now over 24 trillion-dollar debt that the United States economy has which our economy produces just about 20 trillion dollars of economic productivity per year which means we actually owe more than our country produces in a year but we're not even thinking about paying it off and and again the last time we tried to pay it off by raising interest rates and starting to sort of reduce the balance sheet reduce the debt the economy almost tanked in 2018 that didn't work out so we went right back to zero percent interest rates or lower interest rates but this is weird because we have to pay off our debt at some point we don't want to end up like Zimbabwe or Venezuela where all of a sudden a loaf of bread costs one dollar one day then it costs two dollars the next day then it costs four dollars the next day and then it costs $16 the next day and before you know it I'm bankrupt I may as well not even work because you need wheelbarrows worth of money to pay for things well there's only one difference between Zimbabwe and Venezuela and the United States and it's kind of one that is kind of eerie to think about because it doesn't make us feel good but the American economy and the US dollar maintains more trust and in addition to maintaining more trust we owe most of our debt to ourselves in fact over seventy percent of the United States debt is owned by us through pension funds and Treasury bonds it's not the Chinese it's us we own most of our own debt so it's kind of like I wrote myself a loan of $1,000 and I'm like well Kevin when are you gonna pay your own thousand dollars back and I'm like I'm not gonna worry about it right now I'll just worry about that later but that later never comes and instead what happens is our debt number keeps growing we keep printing more money on the basis of United States economy and the strength of the dollar and trust our debt keeps growing people keep becoming richer we keep living more efficient lives and we keep creating more and more technology but when are we gonna pay this money off aren't we gonna see hyperinflation well the irony is so far the answer to the is no in fact the more the government prints money the more demand we see in our economy and the more we just see efficiencies increase and ironically inflation readings are going down despite all of this money printing which basically is a sign that our economy is deflationary by default which basically means if there were no money printing prices would just fall by two to three percent per year but because we cranked the money printer prices actually go up by one to two percent which is nominal and actually encourages us to spend and invest because if there were deflation we wouldn't invest in things like stocks or real estate we would just keep our money in savings which would be bad but because of money printing we actually end up investing in things like the stock market into businesses into venture capital into real estate into innovation into increasing our businesses into hiring people so at this point you might think to yourself well Kevin I don't believe a word you're saying and that's okay I want you to make up your own mind if you don't believe a word I'm saying or what I believe in or what I believe is beneath our economic engine you should buy gold and you should buy Bitcoin because those will protect you ideally hopefully is what they say from hyperinflation and this massive market correction that's coming because of all this money printing in all this depth that's robbing from our future generations but based on what's actually historically happened the more money we borrow today the richer our future generations are think back to the paycheck-to-paycheck family from 1950 and 1980 and 2020 the more we borrow the more efficient our economy becomes and the richer we actually become even though we're more in debt and so even though that seems insane and it seems weird and it seems counterintuitive what does that mean for you if your paycheck to paycheck today you are a cop a firefighter a teacher you're a real estate agent you're a computer programmer and you're just like Kevin I just need to know is the market going to have an epic massive correction after all this hyperinflation from all this money printing and do I invest then or what does this actually mean well I can't tell you that there is not going to be a correction but what I can say is our government at least right now seems poised to do anything in its power to prevent deflation and to maintain inflation despite us being in a deflationary market that is we become more efficient the more people line up at the hotdog stand the more efficient the hot dog vendor becomes the price doesn't go up he just becomes more efficient to satisfy demand when I hold events to teach you all how to learn how to invest in real estate I have to travel I have to book a conference room I have to go to a hotel and I can only help a hundred of you at a time well instead with technology what can I do now I can have a course that's linked in the description below and give you my entire brain when it comes to real estate investing and thousands of you can learn from me whenever you want on demand at the same time that is efficiency that is how now I as an example can fulfill more demand with the same service I didn't have to raise my prices and so if after hearing all of this you believe oh my gosh maybe the debt doesn't matter as much as I thought it would and maybe there won't be insanely crazy hyperinflation because things will just become more efficient cars will start driving themselves away yeah maybe then we should start thinking to ourselves ok well how do we invest if now we understand how the market actually works in America as crazy and effed up and weird and counterintuitive as it seems how do we invest well there's only one choice you invest in assets you start by investing in yourself so that you can increase your income after you increase your knowledge you increase your skills you become a professional whether that's a professional electrician or plumber or real estate agent or CPA and you learn a skill that can produce more money in this hyper efficient economy then you take that money and invested into assets you buy real estate you buy stocks you follow my advice when I go live every morning at 9:00 a.m.
and I say it's a red day buy stocks it's time to buy real estate below market value here's how to do it all of a sudden it starts making sense so why do the rich get richer it's because they finally figured out ah that's how the system works and if you can't beat them join if you like this video make sure to hit the like button thank you so much get your two free stocks with weeble use the link down below so you can enjoy or at least your family can enjoy there's a crazy world and life that we live in and get yourself life insurance it's in the link below takes you five minutes on your phone and of course join me my programs link below thank you so much everybody have a good
Comments 0