저자: Kevin · 외국인
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우크라이나-러시아 전쟁의 5가지 시나리오(러시아 승리, 부분 분할, 협상 종결, 푸틴 축출, 나토 전쟁)를 정리하고, 시나리오별 시장 영향을 논의. 협상 종결을 최선의 시장 시나리오로 보고, 확률은 협상 60%, 부분 분할 20%, 러시아 승리 14%, 푸틴 축출 4%, 나토 전쟁 2%로 추정. 유가는 90~110달러대 고공행진 전망.
다듬은 글
what is going to happen in ukraine what are the potential outcomes and what is likely to happen in terms of timing and markets in reaction to these outcomes well in this video we're going to talk about exactly that first a shout out to the financial times so for coming up with the five scenarios of what could potentially happen in terms of a resolution in ukraine and of course with russia and then i'll be adding details on my perspectives for time frames and of course what the implications might be for markets so let's get right into these five scenarios the first scenario is a russian win and zielinski uh getting toppled that is the zelinski government failing the zielinski government collapsing zelensky dying or being captured some form of of terrible outcome now this scenario does have a certain likelihood of happening because of russia's military might though as long as we can keep supplying weapons as western allies are to ukrainians it's being it's become very difficult for russia to actually continue to mount their offensive in a successful manner they severely underestimated the resolve of ukrainians and the power of zelensky either way in the scenario if russia were to win they would likely install a pro-moscow government a puppet government the problem with this is it would likely lead to an insurgency in ukraine similar to what we had seen in iraq and afghanistan now the issue here is russia would have to occupy and the problem is and we've known this from prior research russia does not have enough troops to occupy when we occupied for example iraq during operation iraqi freedom we invaded with approximately 19 troops per thousand civilians when germany invaded poland during world war ii they invaded with approximately 80 soldiers per 1000 civilians this is why it was a blitzkrieg it was an overwhelming amount of soldiers when you see nato enter a combat you also usually see somewhere between 17 to 20 troops per civilians russia right now is in ukraine with only six soldiers per thousand civilians this is likely to lead to a very prolonged insurgency in a very very weak moscow government this is not in my opinion going to work very well not only are we going to see a russian economy continue to falter under the pressure of being kicked out of the swift system before there's really an alternate for the swift banking system we're going to continue to see supply issues as it relates to manufacturing components for let's say as even just russian vehicles imagine this you want to buy a car but unfortunately one-third of parts that go into russian vehicles come from outside of russia russia is either going to have to source these all from china potentially sources them from other countries or likely does as well or russia is just not going to be able to produce as many cars and this is why we've seen 20 percent inflation in car prices in russia in just the last two weeks in my opinion this scenario that is a pro-moscow government in ukraine is going to continue to be bad for markets we're going to have a lack of control for wheat for neon for palladium this is going to be bad for oil prices well i do think the pa the the shock pain that is the 130 to 150 price per barrel will wane will likely stay at elevated oil prices for a while say 90 to 110 dollars per barrel so we'll see some reprieve here but we'll likely see more of the same in that big uncertainties will be gone the uncertainty of a war with nato and a nuclear battle might be gone which is very very good we don't want to go in that direction which is one of the scenarios we'll talk about so this scenario will be better for markets but it won't be great because we still won't have a resolution we'll have a power vacuum in ukraine while russia attempts to install their power structure which ukrainians are unlikely to respect again leading to prolonged insurgency a lot of death and a lot of continued destruction now this will of course be a very localized issue but it doesn't matter if wheat fields burn down in ukraine and 30 percent of the world's wheat comes from the ukraine russia region wheat prices are going up baguettes in france are going to be more expensive and inflation will continue to rage or rain havoc or wreak havoc whatever create havoc throughout the world unfortunately so this is not one of the best case scenarios though it is definitely not as bad as a full-on war with nato that would be the absolute worst case scenario so little reprieve but probably more of the same in this scenario now another option would be a little bit of mix here a partial russian victory where basically zelensky's government goes bankrupt maybe they end up tr retreating to western ukraine let's say they make leve the capital which given that russia right now has been mostly focused at least as the financial times puts it uh they've mostly focused their assault on the eastern front in addition to kiev and odessa in the south they've mostly focused their bombardment like marupo and kharkiv over on the eastern front maybe this is an indication that russia is okay with a partitioned ukraine where essentially you draw a line down the middle russia potentially ends up taking odessa the seaport third largest city and kiev the capital as well as eastern territories but ukraine exists as sort of now a 40 percent of what it used to be country with a capital in la viv where we've really had almost no assaults on western territories now one argument is that that's what russia is trying to carve out another argument is russia's coming from the north the south and the east and they just haven't made it all the way to the west side yet who knows but putin has hinted at a partitioned ukraine so this does mean there is some likelihood that this could potentially happen now in this case we might end up seeing less of an insurgency because ukrainians who are still remaining in ukraine it could potentially potentially not no guarantees here choose to move to western ukraine the problem with that is that means giving up their land their property their their belongings uh their their cities their businesses in eastern ukraine or central to eastern ukraine now that could be likely though because a lot of that property could be destroyed or just under russian control which creates very difficult opportunities to re-establish normal life uh in sort of the eastern bloc it's almost kind of like we might sort of see the division that we saw in germany west germany versus in east germany although i doubt there would be a wall unless russia pays for it now another option well i suppose i should briefly mention economically economically this scenario here is probably better than a complete russian win because there is a potential that some of this will be seen as somewhat negotiated and if ukraine says you know what we're good with this we're good which which is unlikely at this point but it's possible if we're good with this go ahead you know lift some of the pain on russia ultimately that's going to come down to negotiation with negotiations between ukraine and and the western world and maybe we could see some sanctions lifted we could actually see a likelihood of more relaxation in markets than in scenario number one remember scenario number one is no more ukraine like russia completely takes it scenario number two is partitioned i would say scenario number two is significantly better for markets than scenario number one of course this is still a bad scenario for ukraine it's giving up a lot of land a lot of power but it could be what putin's going for because remember what putin wants is a demilitarized ukraine now this is important because as a condition of joining nato you actually have to prove that you could provide military support here's the criteria in the words of nato the criteria i'll put it up on screen as well it says these criteria include a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy fair treatment of minority populations a commitment to resolve conflicts peacefully an ability and willingness to make military contributions to nato operations and a commitment to a democratic civil military relationship uh and uh and institutions as well so here you can see if ukraine has no military then they're unable to make military contributions to nato which would actually disqualify them from joining nato solely from that point this is one of the reasons that putin wants to see demilitarized ukraine and this is why it's likely that putin's not going to give up his fight for the capital kiev and again this is where you could potentially see a new capital move westward in the scenario but again we'll also have insurgency in the east so we'll still have anxieties in the east okay now scenario number three this is probably the best case scenario and this is a negotiated solution so bloomberg this morning has been talking about the constant airing of quote continuous talks with russia over video and zoom calls this is very good the more talks we have the better better the prior three discussions so far are focused predominantly on ceasefire negotiations and humanitarian corridors which have really collapsed every time even under the management of the red cross mostly because russian troops or ukrainian troops somebody ends up firing either through mistrust or fear or lack of communication or whatever and the corridors fall apart now of course you do have some levels of escalation here for example you have sergey lavrov suggesting that the us is providing biological weapons to ukraine and at the same time you have joe biden saying any use of chemical weapons will be met with a quote severe price now if obama before biden is any clue here then putin probably doesn't care about biden's words because remember obama said if chemical weapons were used and during his term in the middle east then that would be a red line remember syria damascus and the use of potentially mustard gas which ultimately came out to be yeah mustard gas was used while obama's red line was crossed and nothing happened this is of course one of the stains on obama's presidency and and i don't mean to just only say that as if i'm anti-obama or for obama it's just an observation this is one of one of i'm picking one of the downsides but only because it relates to what biden is saying here this is not a video about obama anyway obviously we know that kiev so far is ready for a diplomatic solution we have heard from zielinski that he is interested in talking to putin directly and believes by talking to putin directly he could end this war we have heard zalenski say that he is no longer interested in joining nato probably would extend that to not wanting to join the eu as well uh so with a negotiated solution here it is possible that ukrainians would say look we've negotiated a solution let's loosen some of the sanctions let's get russia back into swift now we can potentially reduce the odds of a great depression in russia since russian the russian economy is getting absolutely destroyed uh so obviously is the ukrainian economy and the global economy is suffering global gdp is suffering here but this negotiated end would probably be the best case scenario for markets i would expect if oil starts flowing again russian oil starts flowing again we could see a reduction in inflationary fears transitory the new sort of transitory type of inflation would prove to be true and we would see a relaxation in markets and and probably a broader rally so best case scenario for markets here would be a negotiated solution despite the fact that there continue to be aggressions on both sides uh for example there's a report that apparently from ukrainian airspace fighter jets launched onto lunch missiles onto a belarusian town and it appears to be that the goal of this is trying to essentially aggro using a video gaming term here the belarusian military into combat in ukraine to fight alongside the russians against ukrainians because now the belarusians are being dragged into this war which they've previously suggested they might consider moving into ukraine with russia so who knows maybe is that something that's going to tip them over the edge nobody knows okay now the next scenario uh this is scenario number four is that putin ends up getting defeated somehow so uh putin could get defeated in a few different ways so first of all if allies continue to provide weapons stinger missiles javelins you name it it's possible that russian troops could end up getting repelled long enough for elites and kremlin to in the kremlin rather to essentially overthrow putin you could have a military coup so elites in the kremlin this would be like the politicians the oligarchs saying putin you got to go let's get you an island let's get you a napoleon bonaparte kind of style home and let's get you out of here okay you gotta go go retire and disappear okay that that would be an elite kind of style takeover right and then a relaxation hopefully uh the russian military could potentially take over out of frustration over the the disastrous casualties and failures in ukraine uh especially as if a lot of them felt lied to about them just going to ukraine or the border for military exercises and now they're on the front lines of a special military operation aka war russian military could end up overthrowing uh putin this would be a military coup a coup d'etat and this would be replacing the kremlin's government with military power now likely the only reason this would happen is if the military wanted to withdraw from ukraine and and the war otherwise they would just keep going on the same side as putin so that would be good news as well obviously it's potent there's this potential of the citizens revolting but it's a lot harder for the citizens to revoke when the state controls the media so this might be a little bit more difficult or more challenging as a method of overthrowing putin but either way putin could also you know happen to drink nuclear tea as kevin o'leary suggests from shark tank or you know somehow end up disappearing this is probably going to be a second best case scenario here negotiated solution being the best because then we would be certain of the outcomes the second best case scenario is if putin for whatever reason was overthrown or disappeared then the reason this would be likely a best-case scenario because likely whoever's overthrowing putin doesn't agree with putin's war and then wants to end the war but we're not as certain as that of that as a potential negotiated solution right uh now you also if if you do have a putin government collapsing and let's say russia becomes almost somewhat of a a demoted state i don't want to say failed state but they would certainly lose a lot of power it's possible that you would create a power vacuum in in russia and if there's a power vacuum in russia it wouldn't actually surprise me to see western like western allies and nato try to actually move towards russia to try to establish aid in russia that could be humanitarian aid because of the depression banking aid food aid whatever aid in in the western regions of russia and it's also possible that at the same time because there's no way china is going to allow western nations getting into russia it's also possible that you could see chinese influence coming in on the eastern side of russia to sort of aid and rebuild what's you know the russian economy obviously this would also include a lot of aid in humanity you know rebuilding efforts in ukraine but also considering the russian economy has been devastated they'll likely be some form of power struggle uh in russia and this would lead to a lot of uncertainty in russia this obviously again assumes that ukraine gets a lot of help uh the ukrainian government's gonna have to get rebuilt right uh but zielinski would likely rebuild ukraine because in this case scenario russia lost right so zalenski would likely rebuild ukraine with the help of western nations and western allies and then you'd have some interesting power dynamics in russia remember the goal generally of countries is to create or become regional hegemons so a regional hegemon is basically a power that ends up having cultural political military and economic might in a region okay next uh this is the absolute worst case scenario this is scenario number five scenario number five terrible scenario this would be a war with nato that is this war in ukraine spills over to poland or another nato country latvia whatever and uh we we end up dragging the european union the united states nato into a disaster with uh with with russia this could potentially have nuclear implications this is a i would say the the least likely scenario but uh it is one that is creating a lot of fear so any other scenario that eliminates the potential for ukrainian war i'm sorry a war with nato would be very positive i believe for markets removing that sort of nuclear threat uh from market so these are the five scenarios here and i gotta again shout out financial the financial times here for the inspiration on this of course i've added a lot of uh information and research and content to this but i want to ask you what do you think what is the most likely scenario remember we've got five five scenarios here and so maybe in the comments down below let me know scenario number one russia wins zielinski's toppled number two partial russian victory and the silencing government goes bankrupt number three negotiated end no overall control uh putin toppled is number four with a russian retreat that's number four and then a war with nato number five what scenario do you think is likely or maybe what odds of each would you say personally if i had to pick i would say the odds of a negotiated end are probably the highest likely shot here i'd say this is probably about a 60 chance of happening i think a uh war with nato is probably in the direction of two percent so very very low let's see that leaves me about 38 to give up uh the next scenario i would say would probably be about twenty percent for a partial russian victory and uh zielinski moving westward that uh that brings us to about 82 percent so now we've got about 18 percent left i would say probably the next maybe 14 percent would be a russian win and zielinski getting toppled and the left over four percent there being putin getting overthrown so you can see i think the nato war chances are on 2 putin getting toppled around 4 very very low chance there negotiated end or sort of that east west ukraine in my opinion probably most likely of course negotiated and being the best case scenario for markets which i believe is the most likely i just hope and pray that this happens sooner rather than later to help prevent and limit the loss of civilian lives and just lives in general anyway thanks so much for watching if you found this
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