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2022년 3월 증시 급락을 짚으며 Fed 긴축으로 2020~21년과 다른 국면이라고 진단. 나스닥을 닷컴버블과 로그차트로 비교해 2년 반 하락 가능성 경고. 현재 주식 약 70~73% 노출, 현금·옵션 전략 언급. 수익 기대는 연 10~30% 정도로 낮춤, 향후 2년이 더 고통스러울 것으로 봄. 개별 종목은 PUBLIC/Otis 광고 외 특정 예측 제한적.

다듬은 글

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01. hey everyone we kevin here the stock market is an absolute crop show right now and in this video i'm going to explain what we could actually be facing and how long we might actually be facing it for and how to look at this market in terms of an investor it's very different than the market we were looking at in 2020 and i want to explain some of those differences in this video but first i want to provide you another update on this right here this is the bloomberg research terminal two factor identification code thingymajiggy and when i swipe my finger on this and verify my fingerprint and then scan a random sort of little flashy thing on my computer i end up getting a four digit code the very first time i got an odd code was february 19th of 2021 and it was prey and the stock market basically collapsed into march and may right after that update in fact the market started falling basically right after it said b-r-a-y you look at feb 19th 2021 in tech stocks and it's freaking scary okay well then come about the second week of january i got sh9 t which nine if you look at the ninth letter of the alphabet you end up replacing that nine with that ninth letter of the alphabet you get i so you get s-h-i-t yeah well the market's been absolute doo-doo as well since the middle of january now this time it didn't tell me as early like it'd be nice if it would've told me in december right but this morning i got a very interesting update and it was n-a-p-p nap and it made me think okay i'm not a very superstitious person but it just made me think what time in history is similar to what we might be experiencing now in other words when is the freaking pain potentially going to end and how do we invest differently now than we did in 2020 well that is what we're going to talk about in this video but first i want to give a shout out to public.com because they just partnered with otis now you've heard me talk about both of these companies before and now they're teaming up together see otis pioneered a fractional investing platform for nfts arts and collectibles and now with otis joining public which is that investment brokerage that you can invest with you can work with the community by discussing your principles for buying and selling with the public community which is really neat every time you buy and sell they're over 3 million users in the public community in the public app will soon be one of the few apps in the world where people can actually invest in diverse assets and build a modern portfolio so that way you can invest in a fractional nft art collectible space as well as stocks so it's really really cool especially since in the future they'll be adding real estate they've already got crypto they've got different funds you can invest in all in the same place so it's pretty neat the otis integration is coming soon so sign up now via the link down below and you could end up getting a stock a worth all the way up to 1 000 when you go to met kevin.com public check that out linked down below metkevin.com public okay so here's kind of what i was looking at in terms of research so right now when we look at the qqq we look and we say oh my gosh okay all-time highs we're beginning of january we had a lot of exciting sentiment and so what are we doing now we're throwing these fibonacci lines up and we're realizing we're we're starting to kind of fall and close below these fibonaccis in fact today uh we ended up closing right here at 330 which is below the zero percent 334 line so it's getting to the point where i'm starting to have to actually move my fibs down i haven't actually moved these down yet because part of me is a little bit in disbelief that the spy has broken this twice and we're about to break below it again the zero percent fib on the spy is 420 we're at 423 okay we're just straight up trending straight down and it sucks i mean this is a horrible trend pattern and when we look at the chart like this we think to ourselves oh come on how long can this last because when we zoom out on the day chart for the spy i mean look at the chart we had this short crisis of a dip over here in march of 2020 and yeah we've had these little fear opportunities over here to buy and every time we've gotten under the 100 day moving average on the spy it was a buying opportunity it was a buying opportunity in march of 2020 it was a buying opportunity right before the election over here in 2020 uh anytime we had uh here the pain that we had over here in october of 2021 that ended up being a buying opportunity it would seem like now is a buying opportunity now as well but what's different what's different and what is it signal for the future of this market well what's different is during all of these short-term falls jerome powell was our friend the federal reserve was actively printing money like crazy making it so that all of the investments we made no matter how stupid they were or how little research we actually did into them and don't feel bad for it it was what worked back then okay i like to do a lot of research but i know a lot of people pick stocks don't do any research and they can do very well but this time is actually different now i hate using that phrase this time is different because this that is 2022 is different from 2020 and 2021 in fact that we do not have jay pow blowing wind at our back we make a bad choice and a company misses earnings you know what happens right now you end up getting docusigned or you end up getting rivient i mean look at this this is an absolute cluster f you go from 314 down to 90 right now that is insane actually i'm sorry that doesn't even incorporate the after hours price we went from 350 or sorry what was it let's see here it's it's so bad i can't even remember the high was 3 15.

02. uh the after hours actually has docusign at 78 dollars so 78 divided by 315. look at that that's a decline of 75 percent look at rivian folks idiot after hours is at 36 it's straight down i mean this looks as bad as the robin hood chart now fortunately i sold my docusign fortunately i never bought rivia and i made a video right before the run-up and i said should you buy rivian and everybody thought i was an idiot when i said the thing was overvalued and the thing kept running up and i'm like oh whatever make some money shorting it okay you know it's gone down substantially right why because we don't have the wind at our back so of the fed right but look at this because this is scary we're looking at this chart and i know this sounds a little funny okay but look at this chart this right here implies that we've had a massive downswing here and maybe we're close to the bottom maybe it's time to buy right but then i got a little nervous when i did the following i went to trading view okay and when i went to trading view what i did is i turned on the log chart and i went all the way out to uh throw this up here on a single day and i threw this out at all time and if you do that it actually bounces it out to a month which is fine because it's such a long term and what i wanted to do is i wanted to compare us to the dot-com bubble because there's so many comparisons to the dot-com bubble right now and this is kind of scary because when we look at a lot of the specs a lot of the profit less tech companies a lot of the really innovative plays that were big game changers as well back in the dot-com bubble remember a lot of those though unfortunately did go bankrupt we saw a similar kind of drawdown in prices of a lot of these companies now again the docusigns the paypal the sofi the square the lemonade insurance i mean ensure tech has gotten destroyed a lot of the evs have gotten destroyed some of these companies are down 60 to 80 percent it's absolutely crazy right very similar to the dot-com bubble and so this is what woke me up to thinking well maybe we got to look and compare the dot-com bubble and take a look at this and this is really what was scary look at when my trading view bollinger bands here gave me a cell indicator going all the way back to 2000.

03. it gives me a cell indicator after we've already had some pain here around january of 2001. now that's wild because the dot-com bubble really started having pain in about september of 2000 and so it it was kind of late it was almost like oh my gosh well if you would have sold uh you know january of 01 you would have sold at the bottom what a loser right uh and this is very frequently what we hear when people say they're they're selling their stocks it's like haha stocks just went up the next day or the next week what a loser right but look at this had you sold here you would have actually saved not a few weeks of pain but you would have saved almost two and a third years of pain leading all the way to where the buy signal pops in right here in about mid-2003 how wild is this that we had two and a half years of pain of the dot-com bubble that would be from about the end of 2000 to the beginning of uh 2003.

04. two and a half years of this kind of garbage and when i throw this on a log chart which was really important about the log chart to know is it it shows you a relative percentage decline rather than just a nominal price uh change because over time as prices get larger it seems like the chart moves more than it actually does like for example if i go over here to weeble just to make this little make more sense i go to the month chart this is the dot-com bubble right here and it feels like what we're experiencing right now is actually much worse but that's because we're starting with larger numbers right we're starting with the number here of 100 we went from 100 on qqq down to 20.

05. that's an 80 loss on qqq 80 freaking percent but if you look at the chart it's like wait a minute the chart makes it seem like this is a much larger decline right but wait a minute the spy's only gone from 408 or we call it 409 to 312. that's only 20 i mean not the spy the nasdaq it's only gone down about 23.7 percent so why does a 23.7 percent decline over here feel bigger than an 80 decline over here well again it's because we're starting with larger numbers so the drop the candlestick drop of a hundred points is obviously larger here because 100 points here would bring you to zero right kind of wild anyway you could solve for this by looking at the log chart and this is really what is is kind of making me a little bit nervous i have to say it makes me want to sign up for life insurance anyway look at this okay i've got the log chart on look under my head right here see how it says log right here look at how our dip right now compares on the log chart that's it folks look at that right there how ugly is that that's it this is a little itty bitty little red right here that's the pain we're dealing with right now that's what everybody's freaking out about right now okay you want to see real pain if we're really comparing ourselves to the dot-com bubble look at that holy crapolas okay so what do we do with this information because obviously we know that we've got a lot of maddening things happening in the economy right now okay we've got insane levels of inflation the federal reserve is stuck between a rock and a hard place in the short term they're not going to rug pull us they're not going to 50 basis point hike us they're not going to shock an ass they're going to stay accommodative by doing 25 basis point hikes this is almost certain i could be wrong data could change but the federal reserve has made this very very clear to us because of war and the geopolitical concerns they are going to relax now this is good but it still doesn't necessarily mean they're our friend i mean they went from being our friend to blowing wind at our back to like kind of blowing wind against us they're just saying we're not gonna huff and puff you we're just gonna slowly blow you um i hope nobody clips this okay so now we've gotta consider the fact that all right inflation if it doesn't go down they're going to eventually have to shock and us they will have to force a recession to get inflation gone and it's important to know that they can do this they can wave a wand and create a recession all they have to do is jack interest rates up to probably six percent instantaneously inflation will go away virtually overnight because demand will absolutely collapse we'll go into a recession that will be very painful uh real estate prices stock prices everything will be hurt there'll be nothing to be saved people like oh but crypto be safe right no nfts crypto won't be safe either gold might not even necessarily be safe honestly the best thing that'll be safe in a recession is straight up cash and and i'm tired of hearing people say things like oh but cash loses value to inflation dude it depends what you're buying okay if you're buying things that are going down in value you gain money it's like having deflation right that's the point right your cash gets more valuable as prices go down anyway so we we still have the boogeyman of inflation and if it does not end up being transitory and you do not believe that in in one year from now inflation has gone down with the fed raising rates 25 basis points seven or eight or maybe even up to 17 times in a row then you probably don't want to be in equities because the fed's going to have to keep tightening the screws on us until this inflation is gone and if the inflation stays they will have to force a recession uh but i i think the big sort of scary thing for me and and this hasn't changed my portfolio it's not like this is making me want to like flip or whatever i'm about 70 to 73 exposed right now uh to the market and a lot of that was because the the shock and awe potential of the fed has gone away uh in fact you know it was wild because people always tell me like oh why didn't you tell me this earlier i i did i literally do in fact look at this this was so scary i looked at the january cpi uh spreadsheet that or not spreadsheet the document i had from january this came out february 10th see it says right there february 10th so i probably did a video on this on february 10th but anyway i was talking about how there could be a 70 buying opportunity uh and you maybe want to be 30 cash and that's literally what i did like i do try to be as transparent as possible on this channel and i pretty much do what i say i'm gonna do uh that might not be what sometimes we want to hear like obviously nobody wanted to hear that kevin was selling i'm very grateful that i did because i saved a lot of money uh and i know today was a red day i was up this morning well actually last night i was up since my trades by around march 24th i was up about 1.2 million in my portfolio now i'm only up 800.

06. i'll still take the 800 though don't get me wrong i still take the 800 but i i i am very sad about looking at this log chart because i'm like we could just be going through quite frankly nap time and that brings us full circle to this this bloomberg notification here and that is going full circle back to the next quite frankly at least year if not year and a half could end up being nap time and nap time is an opportunity for you in my opinion to build okay this is an opportunity to figure out how you can make more money for example those of you in my well a path to wealth course how can we figure out how to make more money negotiate a higher salary for you make sure that you're able to invest as much as possible increase that top line so we get more into the bucket of investing right and then when we have more in that bucket of investing how can we invest this in the most conservative means possible so that way we can get through this storm whether we're buying wedge deals below market wedge deals whether we're allocating more money to cash than ever before whether we're making sure to stay out of debt whether we're also doing some things to potentially yield farm selling puts selling calls selling calls potentially a little bit safer in this sort of market i know that sounds crazy because worst case scenario with a sold call you end up losing your shares because you're selling them at a certain price you agree to with sell puts though you end up selling a put and then the market keeps going down and down and down it could hurt because you're really agreeing to pay a certain price so for example on docusign there uh if we go to the day chart on docusign if you sold puts after this drop over here at 150 and you're like oh the yield's so great i'm going to yield farm over here now it's down another 50 percent your puts are bleeding like crazy we're looking it's down 17 after ours it's insane so what do we do how do we stay away from the most dangerous categories well it seems like the the biggest pain points in the market right now are uh companies that are in the financial space so if i square companies that are in the stay at home space zoom docusign companies that have no profit without a down companies that are specs no matter what they are uh and and healthcare to some degree and this is kind of sad that you kind of like it's almost like nobody's doing fundamental analysis it kind of feels like these things are just being lumped together and then the algos are just going sell sell sell on those things it kind of sucks you know things that that are holding up okay i can't really say that tesla's holding up okay because look i mean it's on a straight downtrend right uh things that have held up okay to some degree obviously at this point energy but this could be a short-term play but it could be a hedge against some of your other moves personally i think these trades are crowded once the geopolitical uh crisis ends i expect this this trade to collapse same thing with wheat and we've already seen some of the commodities start collapsing i expect that trend to continue so rather for me rather than going too heavy on energy or commodities or wheat for me it's not financial advice for you i'm a little bit more interested in just being cash heavy on those or potentially trying to do uh two to maybe eight week sold puts grab a little bit of yield form worst case i have to buy those shares that's okay uh but i'll also sell some calls in fact probably if tomorrow we get a little bit of a green day i'll sell some calls again against some of my positions that are a little bit higher and that way i'm just collecting a little bit more cash so that way i'm prepared so hopefully once we get through this next year or whatever if we could just honestly get through this year flat or slightly up that's going to be a good thing uh i hate to say that for broadly right i i hope to be much more than obviously flat or slightly up i i hopefully can still uh you know with yield farming and the strategies that i have returned somewhere between 10 and 30 percent that would be wonderful i don't have the 2020 expectations anymore of oh yeah everything's gonna double in three months right this is why call options in my opinion are dangerous and i'd rather have shares than in the money calls in this kind of market but a lot of people are coming to me and they're like kevin kevin when is skills going to go back up when are you know insert uh popular 2020 stock in here uh gonna go back up they don't have to go back up and this is i hate to say it but penny stocks are not ipo'd nobody ipo is a penny stock ipa penny stocks are created by the market look at this skills went up to 46 out of momentum it's at two dollars right now two dollars and 10 cents divided by 46.

07. it is down over 95 that's freaking insane but this kind of stuff will keep happening you know i know neo is one of our sexy friends we just love neo but i can't buy neo because i know the chinese consumer is sucking right now the darn thing's going straight freaking down now i get it you know tesla's been having a little bit of a rough ride too but certainly not as rough as uh as what we've seen at some of these other place so look just be careful let's all have to say go for those high growth high margin businesses that's what i'm personally looking for so what are what are my favorites you should know this by now and i trade other ones as well but some of my favorites honestly visa high high margin 50 percent of the bottom line mass not i wouldn't say massive growth probably like eight to twelve percent growth right uh tesla 50 growth huge growth and profitable profitable growth is where it's at end phase really amazing companies like this uh even google to some degree high growth high profit free cash flow that's what people are investing for right now but i hate to say it i don't know with certainty that it's going to save us from this so while right now i'm i'm in and i'm not flipping i just want to provide this logarithmic comparison here that quite frankly makes me sad because i i do think the the next two years are going to be more painful than not uh it's certainly 2020 2020 is going to suck but we've known that for a while so anyway just some thought