저자: 미상 · 외국인
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약세장 진입이 아니라 2025년도 상승장 내 조정으로 본다. SPY 584 이하에서는 리스크 축소, 576 갭메움·573 지지 부근 매수 관점. 채권(TLT) 바닥 신호와 연준 대차대조표 축소 중단 가능성을 근거로 금리 하락 후 주식 반등을 기대. 과거 약세장 전망은 2023년 이후 번번이 빗나갔다고 주장하며 2025년 상승 전망을 유지.
다듬은 글
all right all right today I want to do a special update about whether or not we are entering a bare market and the answer is no and I'm going to talk about why I still think 2025 is going to be another bull market year even though we're not looking for some crazy plus 25% bull market year I still do think we're going to have positive returns in 2025 and I'm going to talk about exactly all of the things people are getting wrong as I warned in my 2025 video there's going to be plenty of people calling for Tops calling for Bare markets these are the same people who have been calling for markets even in 2023 after we already had a bare Market in 2022 and it's very dangerous to assume during a pullback within a bull market that you're are entering a bare Market because that is the lowest probability chance and you don't just get bare markets every 2 to three years they're very rare and they're very hard to come by and that is because money is always looking for somewhere to go so the first thing we need to look at is spy a lot of people are freaking out because we did get a lower low breakdown so without a doubt if we're just looking at the daily chart of spy we can see lower highs and now what are looking like lower lows down below 584 so without a doubt this is a pullback within a bull market and without a doubt this pullback could go a little bit lower and I do want to switch it over to the weekly chart because on the weekly chart you need to see that we're at the rising 20 period moving average which is right around the 580s we do have this lower high and now what looks like another lower high rejection to a lower low which is breaking down and while that is coming into support this is no different than what we saw back here in 2023 if you remember back in September we started to break down to a lower low on the weekly chart a lot of people were starting to call for this being a another bar market and that's why I said these Bears have been around since even 2023 saying this was another top and that we were just going to continue to crash down they were saying that this was a lower high after the 2022 bare Market they were saying this was just a bare Market relief rally this was a lower high and we were just going to continue down and continue crashing and that would have been the biggest mistake you could have made because from there we went on another bull market rally of over 40% gains and this is from the September breakdown we had even more profit if you were coming off the October lows of 48% so this is the danger with just believing people know what they're talking about when they call for a bare Market yes we need to respect the fact that risk is increasing as we get lower highs and lower lows but it doesn't necessarily mean that people are going to be able to already say it's a bare Market or a bare Market coming and I'm going to give you objective reasoning on why it's very unlikely we're going into a bare market so on this daily chart all you need to do is just manage risk down below 584 if you do not want to buy until we get back above 584 it is really just as simple as getting risk off until spy can get back above 584 now while we're below 584 the most likely probability is that we would come down towards a gap fill at 576 and then a support zone right around 573 and then once we got there it is possible that's another higher low within a bull market because if you you zoom out all of these lows are all higher than the previous lows and this would still be a higher low from the low back here in the 560s and that means at any point this pullback could end and we could go on another very violent bull rally which could take us to another brand new all-time high in the 600 so do not rule this possibility out I'm going to talk about why this is a very good chance and why this is more than likely just a pullback within a bull market and the first thing we need to look at for that is the bond market so I'm going to pull up TLT because this is a longer term bond this is the 20-year treasury bond and as you can see this thing is down in the dumpsters from this high back here in September 2024 TLT is down about 15% now if you remember back to 2022 I'm going to give you a quick history lesson is that Bonds were trash because even though we had fears of recession we also had very high inflation and when you have high inflation you do not want to own government debt and that is why in 2022 we had an inflationary bare Market where even though companies were still doing all right making money the stock market was going lower because we had very high inflation now that inflation is coming down we still have bonds going lower which is telling us there's no fear of a recession because in a recession bonds do very well so really what you have to think about here is the fact that the bonds are still doing poorly is because people are still concerned that inflation May return back and we may get another inflationary bare Market or at least inflation that's going to cause the FED to have to act and possibly mess around with rates again which is obviously bearish for stocks and bonds together now when I look at the bond market what I see is very near a bottom because as you can see here volume is starting to increase as we're getting buyers of the dip which increases the probability I think the Bond Market is going to start to bounce here which does go hand inhand with an end of the month rally with fomc and also the inauguration of the brand new president where confidence could come back to the bond market and that could carry over to the stock market as well but if money is leaving the stock market and we're going into a bare Market you can clearly see it has not yet started to into the bond market yet so do not have concerns there there is nothing in the bond market that tells us money is pouring into bonds and that stocks are going to be weak because if we saw stocks selling off while the bond market was rallying that would be a lot more concerning that smart money is starting to sniff out a recession but we just don't see that yet and if we look at the total fed assets we can see that even though the Fed was reducing rates going all the way back to 2022 the FED has actually already reduced their balance sheet by $2 trillion from the highs back here in 2022 to now all the way down here in January of 2025 $2 trillion less and you could see there was a little bit of a spike here in March of 2023 and that is when the regional Banks were failing and the FED did have to bail them out but as soon as they bailed out those Regional Banks they immediately started to reduce their balance sheet yet again so with the FED reducing their rates they're more than likely going to start pausing they're still tightening cuz as you can see they've reduced their balance sheet by 2 trillion do so even though they did reduce rates a little bit they're still overall worried about inflation and that is why they're still not stimulating they're still pulling money out of the system which is going to help keep inflation in check so the best thing the FED can do right here is just sort of pause and let the market digest everything that is going on and as you can tell a very important part of that will be the bond market so pay attention to TLT if TLT starts to bounce as I'm expecting that is going to bring rates down and as rates come down I do think we are going to see a rally in the stock market so when I go back over here to spy that does look like very similar to what I drew is that even if we get a little bit more pullback this is not the start of some nasty bare Market more than likely we're just getting a early year pullback this is causing lots of fear and lots of people to panic and that's why people are even starting to call for Bare markets and it is then when everybody is freaking out that we are going to get a really nice rally and then a lot of people are going to be too scared to participate in it and they won't actually make any money and even worse some people may even try to short here and then they're just going to lose money as the market rallies off of these support zones so what I'm trying to tell you in a very long- winded way is that I am still going to be buying the dip at support levels I still do believe this is a bull market it is very low risk because we're not getting these huge high volume sell-offs where you can lose a lot of money so as long as you have a disciplined approach around buying near support so that you can manage risk I do think you're going to do very well from here so I just want to be that level-headed voice of reason to tell you that the sky is not falling it does not look like we are entering a bare Market from what I can tell and I just talked about all of the reasons why if we start to see high volume selling in stocks while the bond market is rallying that is going to to be a lot more concerning that a lot of smart money is starting to sniff out of recession and that is obviously very bearish for stocks but with the yield curve just now uninverted bull market left and that will mean the bond market will start to calm down once we get more evidence that inflation is not going to be an issue and that could be as soon as this week with the CPI and the PPI data reports so pay attention to that the unemployment data report that we got last week did not tell us that people are losing their jobs and as long as people are holding their jobs and we can keep inflation down low we will still have a bull market in 2025 barring any Black Swan events or anything like that so manage risk we have the clear risk levels we know where to manage risk from with support and the breakdown of previous support and as long as you have a trade plan that is focused around following price you will still do very well even if we do go into a bare market so try not to overthink about it and let emotions drive your trading this year this is the same mistake lots of people made in 2023 and 2024 because every time we get a pullback they start buying into the fear that the market has topped and that we're going into a bare market and as we now know because hindsight is 2020 we just continued to put higher lows and brand new all-time highs every single time we had that pullback so while we don't know for sure and we can't guarantee this is another pullback that will eventually go to another brand new alltime high I do believe the odds favorite and it is still the highest probability chance and in my opinion that means it's still worth taking on the risk and still making a trade plan built around buying the dip and preparing for another bull rally if things change we'll see it in the the charts we'll see it in the bond market we'll see it from the rates and the decision that the FED makes and we will have plenty of time to move like water and adapt don't forget you can get or the SQ with my as well as the comment section and we are going to absolutely crush this Market again in 2025
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