저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
SPY는 전일 0.15% 상승한 횡보 장세였으나 일봉 고가 부근 마감으로 매수세가 유지되었다고 봄. 584 지지 위에서는 롱 유지, 아래로 이탈하면 570대까지 하락 가능성을 리스크 관리 기준으로 제시. 나스닥100(QQQ 추정)은 0.02% 상승에 그쳤고 514~510 지지 이탈 시 490대 하락 가능, 510 회복 시 상승 전환으로 봄. 구독 서비스(Discord, 트레이드 알림) 홍보 포함. 내일 휴장(카터 전 대통령 추모)을 안내.
다듬은 글
all right all right today's spy was up 0.15% and even though it was a very flat day we still did learn something today and it goes hand inhand with what I talked about last night is there's a very good chance we are going to enter what is called a bear trap which essentially means that the majority of Traders think we are going lower so they're either going to sell and get out of their long positions or even try to short and then the market is going to do the opposite of what is expected and we're going to go higher and the reason I still think it's a bear trap is because today's price action confirm that we still have buyers in this Zone you can see from the daily candle that we closed near the highs even though we tried to break down and as I told you last night we need to break 584 so it's very low risk to be in the long trade and you always want to be in the lowest risk with the highest reward trade which is currently still the long trade so all you need to do to not mess up this trade is to Simply stay long while spy is above 584 but I do want to warn you I never assume the market has to go higher which means you need to move like water if the market starts to break down below 584 that is your confirmation from price that we are not getting the bull scenario and that means you need to manage risk to the downside which could easily take us down into the 570s never assume or never hope or never trade on the fact that the market can only go in One Direction our job as Traders is to be profitable whether the Market's going higher or lower and the best way to ensure you do that is by managing risk and getting in the best trade setups with the highest probability chance and over time you will win more more trades than you lose and even if you don't let's just say you're winning 50/50 if you have the right risk reward setups and you're getting more reward than the money you're risking you will still be profitable at even a 50% win rate so focus on learning how to be a disciplined and profitable Trader it doesn't mean you need to predict the future it means you need to look at the chart and understand how to read the chart and understand the best trade from the chart and the best trade from this chart is still the bull trade for that push higher into a brand new all-time high territory that risk level is very clear right there at 584 it does not get any simpler than that I'm not sitting here promising you it's going to win and you're going to profit but I am telling you based on my analysis and based on my experience this is the best trade setup which means you want to continue to stay long even if it takes time and patience that's why swing Traders make the most money because time is on their side and they have the flexibility to be patient because they don't need to constantly make a trade or move every single day like a day trader don't get me wrong I love day trading and I love day trading volatility today was a great day to be a day trader but the majority of the money you make will simply just be getting in those best trade setups and then letting time pass as those trade setups work so for that reason have a realistic expectation this Arrow could take all the way out until the end of the month before we see that price Target but you have to enter the trade today because that is where the entry is and then you need to have that patience so spy above 584 it is as simple as thing bullish it is a bull Trend until it's not if we get the bare break down and confirm a bare Trend we are going to see the confirmation of all of these lower highs and the breakdown below 584 then we can start saying it is a be Trend but it is still a bull Trend until it is not on the NASDAQ 100 triple Q's we had an extremely exciting day of going absolutely nowhere with a positive 0.02% day and just like I told you on spy nothing has changed from the analysis and the trade that I gave you last night I still think there's a very good chance this is all a bear trap which means anybody shorting down here is shorting right at support where they should be buying long positions and that means they're going to likely get bear trapped and squeezed out as we push higher into the 530s and 540s off of the support between 514 and 510 just like I said with spy we don't just assume the market has to go lower so we always have our contingency plan confirmed by price in the chart and that will be the confirmation of the break and confirming we have lower highs and lower lows on the break down below 5 10 below 510 we could easily flush all the way down into the 490s so it's very important to manage risk if we get the confirmed breakdown and I will remind you if we get the confirmed breakdown it's a lot better to just manage risk instantly because even if it's a false breakout and we then continue to go higher you're going to see it in price when we get back above 510 and break the resistance downtrend and even though you'll be buying at a higher price up here right around 517 for example you now have a higher probability chance to know we're going higher and you don't have to guess so if you do not like buying down here because you think we're going to break down that is fine but that means you will be buying at higher prices when the risk is higher right now is where you're going to get that lowrisk entry with the very obvious confirmation that it's breaking down below 510 so hopefully that makes sense I'm trying to teach you how to get in the best risk reward setups with the best probability so that you can learn how to do this yourself but as always I have my services available the stock Channel Discord you'll get all of my analysis with trade ideas on various tickers and then if you really want me to hold your hand through this I have the stocks Channel trade alerts where you get the exact % allocations that I'm going to be in for the tleq or SLE q and you get those alerts every time I suggest making a trade or making an allocation adjustment so all of those Services I'll put in the description below as well as the comment section and I ensure you you will absolutely crush this Market in 2025 if you learn how to manage risk and become a very disciplined Trader and also as a very quick reminder tomorrow the market is closed because the stock market will be honoring the death of Jimmy Carter so I will see you all again on Friday as we go into the last trading day of the week
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