저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500(-1.64%), 나스닥100(-2%) 하락과 VIX 20 상회로 변동성 복귀. SPY 639 고점 거부 후 베어리시 엔걸핑, 619가 핵심 지지. 가장 가능성 높은 시나리오는 630 부근 반등 후 저점 고점 거부와 600 방향 추가 조정. QQQ는 551 지지 이탈 시 530대 하락 가능. 비트코인은 120,000 아래 리스크오프, 111~112k 하락 전망. 애플은 실적 호조 후 200 부근 매수 관점, 220대 목표 제시. 연초 대비 자사 성과 21.8% 주장으로 구독 유도.
다듬은 글
It looks like market volatility is back with today the S&P 500 going down 1.64% and the NASDAQ 100 going down nearly 2% and the VIX is now back above 20. So, I'll give you this video on a Friday to give you something to chew on over the weekend because with this market volatility, there will be opportunity and volatility is always a trader's best friend because all a trader really wants at the end of the day is price to be moving around so that there's opportunities to trade no matter the direction.
Now, we've been talking about this being a bull trend until it's not. And this is still a bull trend, but without a doubt, this is a bull trend that is ready to pull back. And you can see this sharp rejection here right around SPY 639. And more importantly, after that bearish engulfing candle that we had on Thursday, the bears still had the strength and the sellers were still in control enough to gap it down and close it near the low for the week.
So, this is significant because remember, we follow price action. And looking at price action, without a doubt, the past two days have put damage on this bull trend. And now you have to be respecting the fact that the sellers look motivated enough to be getting out of the stock market. And that could be very early signs from price action that this bull trend is trying to pull back.
And that pullback could be significant. So let's zoom in here and let's really focus in on these last two days. We have the high of the range right there at 639. And the low of this range is going to be very critical right around 619. Now when we look at 619, it's possible the floor just falls out and we just continue to cascade lower without any bounce.
But more than likely what's going to happen is we're going to have some sort of bull trap early next week. And that bull trap is going to get sold as a lower high rejection into the remainder of that pullback. And that means we could bounce before we go any lower. And it could look something like a bounce towards 630 and then a further pullback towards 600.
So right now I think that is more than likely what you should be paying attention to. I'm not saying we have to bounce, but I'm saying any bounce should be viewed as a lower high rejection possibility. And when I say possibility based on price action, I think highest probability is the better way to say it because of course there's always going to be the chance that is just the pullback and we continue higher towards 645.
However, the highest probability is the one I'll leave on the chart and that's the lower high rejection into further pullback. And I do think we are due for this volatility. We've had really no significant pullbacks since the bottom that we've had in April. And now that we're actually getting some volatility, I think traders are going to take advantage of that.
And the majority of traders right now are going to be looking for opportunities to either short or continue selling their long positions on any further bounce from here. So going into next week, watch by 619. That's going to be your line in the sand. If we just break through that and we don't bounce, it's possible we just go straight down to 600.
However, I think the highest probability, which doesn't mean it has to happen, is that we're going to get that lower high bounce and then that rejection first. So watch 619 as critical support. the resistance for any lower high is going to be somewhere around 630. We could push anywhere that's lower than 639 and that's still the lower high.
So, don't think it has to stop at 630, but but that's a good sort of reference point to watch on any bounces. If we do break out to a brand new all-time high, then that was the pullback and then we're just going higher towards 645. But again, I think that's probably the lowest probability chance. I think the highest probability chance is that we are going to get that pullback right here, right now.
So, those are your critical levels on spy. Keep it that simple. We need to look at the triple Q's. Again, the high was right around 575. We had the bearish engulfing candle on Thursday and then we gap down and close near the low of the week. The bottom of the range right here on the triple Q's is right around 551.
If we can't hold 551, then we just continue lower towards the low 530s. But just like SPY, I think the highest probability chance is some sort of lower high rejection before we continue lower during that pullback. And that lower high rejection is somewhere around 563 to 564. And again, anything that's a lower high works.
We could bounce all the way up into the 570 zone as long as we don't break out to a brand new all-time high. And all of those lower highs could reject into what could be a much deeper pullback that will bring us down towards 532 to 534. So, this is what I would be paying attention to. You have a very critical support right there at 551.
If you want to try to play this bounce, that's your risk level for support. If that breaks, ju just assume we're going to continue straight down first or a deeper pullback before the lower high bounce and then continue an even deeper pullback. So there is going to be volatility going into next week and that volatility means we could bounce and still go a lot lower.
Don't just assume any bounce has to be bullish. This is damage from price action on these last two days of trading and that is something you should not be ignoring. And then I want to look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin was very simple because we had the bottom of the range right there right around 117,000. And as you can see, Bitcoin was just getting all of those lower high rejections and was failing to close out above 120,000, which is why I said you can stay riskoff in Bitcoin below 120,000.
And then, of course, we broke the support and then it was confirming to be riskoff. And right now, we're more than likely heading down lower towards 111 to 112,000. So on Bitcoin, look for a deeper pullback. Again, we've already had the lower highs on Bitcoin, so it's not like spying the triple Q's where we need the lower highs.
There are plenty of lower highs here in Bitcoin to just continue lower. And if we break below support at 111 to 112,000, the next lower support would be right around 107 to 108,000. Let's also look at Apple stock. It had a very solid earnings report, but again, it got caught up in all of the selling that we were getting across the broad market.
And right here on Apple, we were starting to get that cup and handle. And we were right around that neckline at 213. And as you can see, we just couldn't break out and hold above 213. After earnings, we tested that level once more. Rejected it yet again and came all the way back down towards this support right around 200.
And I will remind you, this is still a trade idea to go into the 220s. And I think at this point, we're even going to go as high as about 230. And that means you could still have this as a riskword setup to be buying in this zone right around 199. But again, if we start breaking down and we can't hold these previous lows, specifically the range lows right around 193, that would be your indication from price that it's starting to look bearish.
But until that happens, I think you could still be buying the dip on Apple. It had a great earnings report and it's likely going to continue to do well. So, this trade is still possible to be buying in this zone for the price targets above all the way in the 220s. And you could set your riskreward however you see fit.
You don't have to swing for these higher prices if you just want a shorter term balance. And then lastly, I want to show you our performance year to date is 21.8%. This is the best time if you are waiting to be a member of TSC trade alerts because with this volatility, we will be deploying lots of cash on trades and that is where we are going to make all of our money.
And remember, for the TQ and the SEQ that I am trading as well. So, year-to- date, we are up 21.8%. And I just want to show you based on relative performance, if we pull up the Triple Q's year to date, they are only up 7.66%. And then we can also pull up the S&P 500 on SPY. And year-to- date, SPY is only up 5.5%.
So when I show you that we are up year-to date 21.8%, we are absolutely blowing the market out of the water by performance in the double digits. And that means we are absolutely crushing this market. So again, the best way to trade with me is TSC Trade Alerts. And if you want to become a member, .
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