저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500(SPY) 679·661 가격 레벨 기준 약세 시나리오를 제시하며 베어 트렌드 가능성을 언급. 나스닥100(QQQ 유사)은 626·602 지지/저항 기준 약세 우위 판단. 비트코인은 2026년 전후까지 고점 미경신 가능성을 주장하며 107,000·100,000 붕괴 및 87,000 목표 제시. 개별 종목 META는 598~600 손절, 704·742 목표로 롱 제안. 유료 트레이드 알림 서비스 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
All right, it's time for another stock market update and I know a lot of you are looking for answers right now and I do have some important insights to share with you. So, we'll look at the S&P 500 today. We'll look at the NASDAQ 100. We're going to take a look at Bitcoin. And then to end it on a high note, I am going to share with you a trade idea of a very, very good trade that I see setting up with very low risk and very high reward potential.
So, while we don't know if the trade is going to work, the risk and reward is absolutely beautiful on this trade idea I'm going to share with you. So, you won't want to miss that if you're looking to juice up your year-to- date before the year is over with. And today, I really want to focus on managing risk and understanding that a lot of people are looking for answers in the market right now.
Nobody truly knows where the market is going to go. So, I want you to keep that in mind. I'm going to give you a very level-headed and objective analysis based on following price action on the chart so you know exactly what to look for whether you are bullish or bearish with very clear risk levels to define so that you don't lose too much money if you are wrong.
And that is always the key to being a great trader. We never want to just assume we know the answers and that we cannot be wrong. We always want to be open to the idea of allowing the chart to prove us wrong and taking that small loss before it becomes a large loss. Remember, it's okay to be wrong in the stock market, but it is not okay to stay wrong.
And anybody who has been fighting this powerful bull trend all year long has been on the wrong side of the trade. And then there's just no other way to put it. So, we want to make sure we're letting the chart and the price do all the talking. Now, one thing I want to remind you is when we're talking about finding truth and we're talking about finding answers, we're heading into Thanksgiving and we're going to be getting together with family and friends hopefully and sharing lots of moments together.
And it's very important that we're not scared to talk to them and share the truth with them. Because when we're talking about our salvation, if nobody came to us and shared the good news with us in the gospel, that Jesus saves us and all we have to do is believe that he is exactly who he said he is, which is the son of God, and that he died and rose from the dead, then you yourself would have never heard the good news and been able to be saved.
So today I want to talk about Matthew 28 18-20. Jesus came and told his disciples, "I have been given all authority in heaven and on earth. Therefore, go and make disciples of all the nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and the Son and the Holy Spirit. Teach these new disciples to obey all of the commands I have given you.
And be sure of this. I am with you always, even to the end of the age." This is a powerful reminder that it is our responsibility to share the good news and to love on everybody around us. Because that is exactly what Jesus is talking about when he said to teach these new disciples to obey all of the commands I have given you.
Jesus did not come to judge us or make us feel shameful. He came to show us love and compassion and forgiveness. And you can see that right here in Matthew 9:36-38. When he saw the crowds, he had compassion on them because they were confused and helpless like sheep without a shepherd. He said to his disciples, "The harvest is great, but the workers are few.
So pray to the Lord who is in charge of the harvest. ask him to send more workers into his fields. So remember, the gospel is not a form of judgment or shame. You should be happy knowing there is an all powerful God that loves you and chose to share that truth with you so that you can be saved and you can have that love and compassion that he's willing to give you.
And all you have to do is accept that gift that he's giving us with no strings attached. All you have to do is simply proclaim that Jesus is the son of God and your Lord and Savior and you are automatically saved. And then once you have that good news, if you are already saved, you should have that fire inside you to spread that good news so that even more people can be saved.
And don't forget to show that love and compassion and help those lost sheep find their shepherd. All right, let's get back into the S&P 500. And looking at SPY, there are two very important things to pay attention to. And one of those is from the previous update when I said this is bad if SPY starts breaking down below 679.
Because when we're looking at price, we were forming these lower high rejections. And from lower high rejections, we continued to break down and make lower lows. And right now in this situation on the S&P 500, the next lower low will be that breakdown below 661. And again, that will be extremely bearish if we do that from a continuation of more lower highs because what we are doing in this scenario is we are developing a bare trend which could actually be the early stages of a bare market.
Now, that's not something to be scared about because we know exactly when that's going to be happening if price breaks down below 661. And if you followed my earlier suggestion, you're already risk off because we've already broken down below 679 and we are still below 679. So when I talk about risk and I talk about risk off or risk on or a trade plan, remember this is 100% your decision on how you trade because even with my own trade alert service, there's a misunderstanding from people who are listening to my analysis and how I trade because they may not fully understand how I develop a trade plan around price action and my analysis.
And there's nothing wrong with that because there's not only one correct way to trade. As long as you are making money trading, that is all that matters. You don't want to be spending time trading to lose money. There are much better ways you could be spending your time. So, if you're spending your time trading, just ensure it's profitable.
And if you're not profitable, you either have to fix it or you have to move on and do something different. So, normally I talk about my trade alert service, TSC Trade Alerts, near the end of the video. But I want to show you plain and clearly, we are up 32.25% year-to date right now, sitting at a brand new all-time high.
Even though the stock market has just gone through a very sharp pullback in a very short amount of time. And that did catch a lot of people off guard. We are simply grinding higher in our accounts because we're trading that volatility and taking advantage of the price action and that is allowing our account to continue to go higher even if the stock market is going lower or just chopping around and being volatile within a range.
So, as you can see, we had very little draw down, very little pullback, and we just continued to grind higher all year long. And now we're sitting near the end of the year at a brand new all-time high. And we're likely going to continue to climb even higher into the end of the year because we're following a strict trade plan.
And this is exactly what you could be doing as well because this is my trade alert service called TSC trade alerts where you get every buy and sell alert that I am making for the TQ and the SQ. So if you're interested in trading with me, this is always going to be the best way to do it because you're getting the exact buy and sell alerts that I'm sending.
And anybody can join this service. It is open to anybody who wants it and you can always find out how to join it by clicking the link in the description of this video. So, as we go through these scenarios, don't feel like you have to trade one direction or the other. Do whatever you feel comfortable doing, even if that means you're just sitting in cash and watching from the sidelines.
But in the bearish scenario, this is exactly what you want to be looking for is a failure to break back above 679 and then that confirmation of that lower low break down below 661. However you want to set up your trade plan is completely fine. Just make sure it makes sense to you. And as always, make sure you're managing risk because as long as you're managing risk, even if you're wrong, it is not going to ruin your trading career.
Now, in the other scenario, this is still a bull market or a bull trend until it's not. And even though we could be risk off below 679, we have to acknowledge these are all higher lows within a bull trend. And if SPY just comes right back out above 679 and does this sort of higher low, higher high breakout and breaks through that resistance, there is nothing that says we cannot end the year higher with an endofear rally and continue to climb higher towards that next price target at 696.
So in this scenario, you could easily just stay bullish above 661 and only get risk off if we break down below it because that would validate the bare scenario of the lower highs and the lower lows. Again, there's no right or wrong. Whatever you see fit to make money is completely fine and up to you.
And this is why I want to remind you that nobody is right or wrong in the stock market. There's only people that lose money and make money. It is completely fine to be dead wrong about everything the stock market does. But the one few times that you're right, you make way more money than the times that you're wrong, and you can still have a very profitable trading strategy.
So, I'm not here to tell you what's right or wrong. I am simply giving you very clear price action to watch on SPY. And a lot of that is going to be whether or not we are above or below 679 or above or below 661. It just depends what time you started to set up that trade plan because back when I first announced it, your trade plan would have been largely revolving around 679.
And if you're just watching this video today, you could move it to 661. Again, there's no right or wrong. It is simply 100% what you want to trade and how you see the market. But without a doubt, we have to acknowledge that price action on the chart is the truth and the price on the chart is the only thing that pays us.
So at the end of the day, we want to let the chart do all the talking. And that is going to be whether or not SPY can get this breakout above 679 or rejects it and continues lower. You should be completely comfortable and fine with either of those scenarios and be prepared for both of them and then simply react to what happens when the price action tells you on the chart.
Hopefully that makes sense because that is exactly what I mean by being a price action trader and being objective and unbiased because you're letting the chart speak to you through the price action movements around critical levels. All right, so let's do that same analysis on the triple Q's in case you don't trade spy.
That's completely fine as well. I prefer the triple Q's myself. And that critical level will be right here at 626. That was the riskoff indication that we got the lower high lower low breakdown when we had that lower high rejection below 635. And then we came down and broke below 626. And that was an instant indication from price that we were getting risk off on Tuesday, November 4th.
And ever since then, you can see we never got back above 626. And then we got as low as 602 and even broke down below 602 temporarily, which could have been a bear trap. That's completely possible. But the only way we're going to know for sure is through price. And I'll give you the bull scenario after I give you the bare scenario because the bear scenario is currently what's more valid.
And that is all of these are lower highs with lower lows. As you can see, price just made another new lower low today. And all of that means if the triple Q's turn a corner here and go back down below 602, then you need to be extremely cautious that we're going as low as 589. And then below 589, we go down towards 577.
This is a definition by price that a bare trend is forming if we see confirmation from price that we do that exact thing. Now, what will tell you we're getting the bull scenario is more of this double bottom look right around 600. And then if we can come back up here and break the highs and get back above 626, then we're very likely doing an end ofear rally towards the 640s.
So hopefully that makes sense. Everything right here on the triple Q's is going to revolve around that level up there at 626. Or you could even try to use 620. But 626 was the bare breakdown that got us into the riskoff state that we're currently in. And if you want to get even more aggressive as a bull, then you could use this risk level down here right around 600 and 602 and then just stay bullish unless we come down here and slice down below it.
Then you will know to get risk off and take that small loss. So it is 100% okay to trade bearish or bullish in this market. It is plenty of volatility to make money in either direction. Just make sure you have a clear, well-defined trade plan that's built around following price action and managing risk.
And then quickly, I want to look at Bitcoin. I told you many times I thought Bitcoin was topping in October 2025 and so far price action is only confirming that. Do not trust anybody that is saying Bitcoin is going way higher. That is extremely dangerous to assume here because I am speaking from a lot of research and technical analysis that is very likely Bitcoin has already reached a top.
And when I say top, I am saying we will not break that high for another 2 to 3 years. This is not something to take lightly. So please don't listen to blind bulls in crypto. There is a very sound technical belief that Bitcoin is going way lower. And one of the simple ones is right here in front of our face of a head and shoulders breakdown below the neckline at 107,000 which easily takes us to 87,000.
So until we start getting higher lows and higher highs, do not get bullish on Bitcoin. And we just made another lower high and a lower low because we failed to break above 107. And below 107, we rejected and made a new lower low on a breakdown below 100,000. So everything on Bitcoin is screaming in our face that the price action is telling us it's bearish.
So be very very careful if you're blindly buying dips in the crypto market. I cannot make that any more clear that crypto looks extremely riskoff and it could be a multi-year riskoff look. Now I do need to put a caveat on that. That does not mean that applies for the stock market. I think some of you heard me say that on Bitcoin and you instantly assume that meant the stock market as well.
There is no strong correlation that Bitcoin and the stock market need to top and bottom at the same time. And then finally, that leaves us with the most exciting part is what can we go do in this market of uncertainty and volatility to go make money. And my favorite trade right now is none other than Meta, ticker MEA, better known as Facebook to the old-timers out there.
But this stock and this chart in this setup gives us extremely low risk for very high potential reward. Which means if we continue to take trades like this time and time again, we will be very profitable traders because when we win, we will win way more money than the times that we lose. And the times that we lose will be offset by all of the times that we win.
And that is how you become a disciplined and profitable trader. So on Meta, it is as simple as setting your risk right here, right around 598. I'm going to give you two price targets. The first one is right around 704, and then the next one is all the way up here at 742. So you decide what risk and what reward you want.
I'm personally going to take this for a longer swing trade. So, I'm completely fine waiting for 742. But if you want something more short-term, then aim for something closer to 700. And just make sure when you dial this riskreward in that you have at least a 1.5 risk ratio. But what's so nice about this trade is you could actually get something closer to a 2 1/2 to three ratio because there's so much potential reward to the upside.
And this stock is already down from its all-time highs about 25%. So, it's already gone through a massive correction. So, a lot of the risk is already burned out of this purchase. And that is why I think this is going to be such a good bullish trade to set up into the end of the year and possibly even carry you into next year.
So, risk level right around 598 to 600. Potential price targets up here at 704 and 742. And then you dial your reward in risk to make sure you're getting the right ratio of what you need for your trade plan. And if you need a reminder of how to set this up, I have that riskmanagement video that I made on this exact process in the description of all of my videos.
So, I'll leave you with one final reminder that we are absolutely crushing this market on TSC Trade Alerts. So, if you need help in this market and you just want to follow my trades, that's completely fine. You can join TSC Trade Alerts. And we are currently up over 32% year-to date. Absolutely crushing the market and blowing all of the indices out of the water by double- digit percent returns.
And this does not even include all of the bonus trades that I sent out this year which have a 100% profit rate. So some of the members in TSC trade alerts are actually up higher like 40 to 45% or even more than that. So if you want to join this alert service, you'll get all of my buy and sell alerts for TQ and SQ as well as those bonus trades.
And all you have to do is simply follow them and you can have the same exact performance. And you can find out how to join by clicking on the link in the description of this video. So go out there this holiday season and be disciples for Jesus. And remember that everybody on this earth was created in God's image and should be shown love and compassion.
And that is the true gospel and the true good news that once you truly believe that in your heart of hearts, then you should be willing to go serve others and spread love and compassion and spread that good news and gospel so that we can all help make this earth a much better and happier place. So go out there and be disciples for God.
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