저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
SPY 653 이탈 시 리스크오프, 630대까지 하락 가능성 제시. QQQ 589 이탈 시 560대 하락 경고, 비트코인은 12.3만달러 신고가 후 불트랩으로 10.7만달러까지 하락, 102,000 하향 가능성 언급. VIX 20 상회로 공포 심리 확대 진단. 본인 트레이딩 실적 연초 대비 27.76% 상승을 강조하며 유료 알림 서비스 홍보.
다듬은 글
All right, today I want to do a quick market update. I want to look at the indices and we'll also look at Bitcoin and the VIX. And with this market volatility, there will be some important levels to pay attention to because you always have to be very careful to manage risk when things start moving to the downside because of the elevator down effect.
And all that means is the bulls take the stairs up and the bears take the elevator down, which means when we start to get high volume selling, we go down a lot quicker than the time it took to go up. So that means risk is increasing to the downside as volatility and selling pressure pick up. But first, today's word comes from Ephesians chapter 5.
"Imitate God therefore in everything you do because you are his dear children. Live a life filled with love following the example of Christ. He loved us and offered himself as a sacrifice for us, a pleasing aroma to God." So remember to go about your day today and be filled with love and spread that love and continue to walk in the light.
All right, so the last update we were looking at spy, I told you with the bull trend as long as we were making higher lows and higher highs, the highest probability chance was that we were going to continue to climb higher as long as we could hold above this support at 668. But if we broke down below 668, we were looking to come down here towards the 650s and test this previous higher low zone right around 655.
And with that price action on Friday, spy did close down below that level. So if you look at this as a possibility as a higher low, you are now comparing it to the previous higher low all the way down here at 635 because we broke this support at 655. So what you need to be paying attention to now is with Monday's price action.
We had an inside day because we had a giant bear body candle on Friday. So when we bounced up and didn't close below the high or the low of Friday's candle, that's what's called an inside day, which essentially is just a fancy way of saying that yesterday's price action was completely contained within the high and the low of the Friday's price action.
Now anytime this happens, you want to pay attention to the range of the high and the low of the candle and the high and the low of the Friday candle because this is going to tell us where we are going from here. And anytime you get selling pressure, you always have a slight bias to continue to the downside, which means with this bounce, it's more than likely just going to be a lower high rejection within a deeper correction that is likely going to take us to the previous higher low at 635.
Now how you'll witness that through price action is a rejection from any lower high that fails to make a brand new all-time high in the stock market and then a break of this low down here just below 653. So below 653, it is a full risk off event in spy all the way down into the 6 30s and possibly even lower.
And that is exactly how you're going to know from price that you need to be completely risk off by the time spy breaks down below 653. Now anytime there's a volatile market, there's plenty of good opportunities for day trading and quick short-term bounces. Even within the context of a downtrend, there's always opportunities for a quick bounce like you just saw with yesterday's price action.
But with today's price action, if we gap down and break the low right here at 660 and continue to flush, that's your signal from price to get risk off. Now all risk off means is that you're not aggressively buying the dip in a risk off market. You are sitting on the sidelines in cash or you are looking for opportunities to short the market if you know how to do so.
Just keep in mind what I said about volatility. If you're trying to short the market, it is just as likely that you could get whipsawed to the upside. So you need to make sure you're always managing risk even if you're trying to short the market because even if we're going lower, you can still lose a lot of money trying to short the market.
So spy is very simple. Just watch that critical support at 653. Any assumptions that we're going higher need to be managed around that critical level. If we break down below that, that's your cue get out because we're going a lot lower. And if you are trying to buy the dip, be very careful because remember what I said, the elevator down happens very quickly.
And if you're buying the dip and you run out of buying power and you're not managing risk, you can lose a lot of money when stocks roll over and start to move to the downside. Just a very quick reminder, if we zoom out here, this has been a long time coming. We've had very little pullbacks and corrections since April and the market got very stretched to the upside.
So once we start moving to the downside, things could happen very quickly. And if you are aggressively buying the dip, you could find yourself in a very bad spot very quickly. All right, let's jump over to the triple Qs. It's going to be very similar to spy. I just want to give you the levels. The previous higher low we need to hold above is right there at 589.
The lower high rejection could be any lower high that fails to make a brand new all-time high. So if you just draw this out, it's going to look a lot like spy. And this essentially means is that as long as the triple Qs are above 589, you don't need to assume this to be the case. But the moment the triple Qs break below 589, it's possible we go all the way down towards 566.
So that's a very clear price action trigger. If we break down below 589, we are likely going to start flushing down into the 560s. And the critical support we had to hold here was right around 602. And not only did we flush down through it, but we bounced back up to it and failed to close above it as it was acting as resistance.
So what should have been support not only failed, but it then turned into resistance on Monday. And that should be very alarming if we start to break down below 597. We're breaking down below the low of yesterday. And then if we break below 589, we're breaking down below the low of last week. And then we could really start moving to the downside quickly.
So pay attention to 597 and 589. As we break those support zones, we are getting extremely more likely to see this elevator down all the way into the 560s or even lower. All right, now we need to look at Bitcoin. As I said with that break to a new all-time high, we had to hold above 123,000. We failed to hold above 123,000 the very next day, bounced up, tested as resistance, and then just completely flushed all the way back down.
And this is exactly what is known as a bull trap where the break to all-time highs was flushing out a lot of the short positions and getting a lot of new buyers in. And that was the exact moment that we hit a top and started this full-blown correction from 126,000. We already had a 15% drop all the way back to 107,000.
So that is the elevator down. You could witness it right there through Bitcoin. And it's possible we're making another lower high as we're going to continue down lower towards 102,000. So things are already looking risk off in Bitcoin with that bull trap false breakout to a brand new all-time high and then instantly flushing down.
That is exactly what a bull trap looks like with the false breakout and then instantly flushing down with the elevator down. So be careful on Bitcoin. I wouldn't be getting bullish unless we can get out above 115 to 117,000 and then holding above that level. All right, and then quickly I want to look at the VIX because anytime the VIX is spiking, this is telling you through price that we are getting a lot more fearful in this market.
And the VIX is now out above 20. And the VIX has really just been building a very large base for quite a while now. And as you could see, that base is now resulting in a bull breakout, which means we're getting a more volatile and more fearful market. And as I always tell you, nothing changes sentiment faster than price.
So if the sentiment is becoming more fearful, do not be surprised if the price starts going down. People only start selling when they're getting scared or they're being forced out or liquidated. And that is all why I continue to warn you about the elevator down because things change very quickly. And when sentiment shifts from greedy to fearful, you go from very high prices to very low prices very quickly.
So take this very seriously and make sure you are managing risk. If you are just going to continue to aggressively buy the dip, eventually you are going to get very scarred by this market. And that is why you need to be very careful and make sure that even if you are a bull trying to buy dips, that you have a very solid risk mitigation strategy in place.
And then finally, I just want to show you a quick update on our performance. We are now at another brand new all-time high, currently up 27.76% year-to-date. We totally mitigated the drop on Friday because we were prepared for it. And that's a very important part about managing risk. It's some times you just need to know when to sit on the sidelines and be prepared for a dip.
And then you'll have plenty of cash to take advantage of it and continue to be able to trade the volatility. So you can have this exact same performance because this is my trade alert service called TSC Trade Alerts. And this is where you'll get all of my buy and sell alerts for the exact percent allocations that I'm trading for the TQQQ and the SQQQ.
If you would like to trade alongside me, this is the best way to do that. And you can find out how to join TSC Trade Alerts by clicking on the link in the description of this video. So thank you for watching everybody. Go out there and walk in the light and God bless all of you.
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