저자: 미상 · 외국인
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나스닥100(QQQ) 단기 조정 후 506선 지지 확인 시 매수 관점 유지, 숏 포지션은 익절 완료. SPY는 575/568 지지 기준 저점 매수 관점, 600선 상승 기대. 애플은 193~187 구간 분할 매수 관점, 220대 상승 기대. 본인 구독 서비스 수익률 강조.
다듬은 글
All right, I want to do a quick update before the 3-day weekend because Monday the market will be closed for Memorial Day. So, happy early Memorial Day to all of you and remember that freedom does not come free. So, everybody appreciate the day off. And I appreciate to all of the men and women that are currently serving as well.
God bless America. All right, so let's jump into the NASDAQ 100. We'll look at the triple Q's first. And on the triple Q's, I do want to clean up the chart a bit today. But before I delete anything, I want to talk about the short trade from 522. The idea of this trade was simply just to profit during the pullback.
It was not required to short the market here. You could have just went to cash, but the riskreward was there to be a bare or even just a smart bull selling. So, that's why I put it on the chart. And as you can see, we hit that profit today. So, I really don't like shorting here. We took our profits on all of our short trades personally.
And I don't think it's a great idea to continue to try to short even though we may go a little bit lower. I just don't think the riskreward is there anymore. So, if you were in that short trade, that would be a great time to take that profit, which is exactly what this green box was depicting, which was to short around 522.
Set your risk from that, and your reward was down here right around 508. And we gap down right around 506 or 505. So, that was an easy take-profit right at the open. So, I want to delete that. Now, that trade is in the profit and close, and that is no longer needed on our charts. And then from here, I want you to be very clear how this can play out from the triple Q's levels of right around 506.
If we hold above this level, we've already had the higher low and we're going higher towards the 530s or 540s. But if we can't hold 506, I do believe we'll come down into the 490s. And there's two levels below 506 that you need to pay attention to. And that would be right around 498 and 491. Those will more than likely be the supports that hold if 506 does not.
But from 506, you can actually start to buy long trades because if we can't break 506 and we start heading back higher and break 522, then we're going to 533, 539, and then 544. So, this is time to be looking to buy the dip yet again because we're in a bull trend. We're looking to buy higher lows for the longer term swings that are going higher within the trend and the trend is moving higher.
So, we want to be bulls more often than not. So, I just want to make that very clear. The short trade is over with. We took profit. We're looking to buy dips at support. And I think that is going to be the easiest trade because yes, you could try to continue to short for the pullback, but you could also miss the bull rally if you're trying to be too cute with it.
So yes, we could dip a bit lower, but we really need to break that support at 506 before we assume lower prices. And from there, we could have already put in the higher low and we're getting ready to go higher. So bull trend until it's not means buy dips. I think it's better to buy dips here and I think it's better to be a bull.
On SPY, it's pretty much the same exact story as the triple Q's. We had the possibility to pull back into 582 and we did that yesterday. That was all I was looking for for short trades. So again, taking profits there and below 582, we did break down. So this is either going to be a higher low from today's low at 575 or we are going the full distance lower for this pullback at 568.
So the longer we're below 582, it is possible SPY does come down a bit lower towards 568. But again, still these are buying opportunities in my opinion because I do believe we're going into the 600s. And it's very easy to manage risk on these long trades. So you don't need to be fearful. All of the fear that comes during pullbacks prevents you from executing properly.
That's why I told you in the last video to block out noise and simply follow the chart. And right now, the chart is telling us we're looking for a higher low to push higher. The higher low on SPY will either be 575 or 568. If we can't hold those supports, then you will need to manage risk because if those supports fail, that is not a bullish indication and then we will need to get a lot more cautious.
So, very quickly, I want to demonstrate the triple Q's are down over 2% in the past week. And year-to- date, the triple Q's are down 1.15%. So, they're still negative year-to- date. And in my service, TSC trade alerts, we were up 1.07% this week. And year-to- date, we are now up 16.63% year-to- date.
So, we are beating the market by over 17% on a relative basis points, which means we are absolutely destroying this market and crushing it by all metrics. So remember, this is my trade alert service, meaning you could all have the same exact performance. Every single one of my customers in this service has this performance that's following my trades because I send you the exact buy and sell alerts for the TEQ or the SQL Q.
And all you have to do is follow those trade alerts and you will have the same exact performance. As you can see, we had no dip this week because we completely negated that pullback as I explained with the short trade and being in cash. So, while the market had a very nasty week and lost money, we actually gained money on the week and we finished out the week at a brand new all-time high.
If you would like to join this service, it is still a great time to join because we are still extremely cash heavy, meaning you could take full advantage of all of the opportunities coming with the trades and then you can absolutely crush this market as well. as well as the comment section. All right, and I also do want to look at Apple stock.
I told you this was a great buying opportunity right around 200 and then we did gap down towards 193 which is also a great buying opportunity. And I want to use a metaphor today on Apple stock because this trade would be the equivalent of getting a great discount on a house that you absolutely wanted to buy.
And let's say you've been stalking this house for a year now and it finally goes on sale. You buy the house, you move into it, and the very next day, that house drops an additional 3 to 5%. And you panic sell out of that house because the price just dropped even more than what you bought it for, and you no longer want to live in that house because it's no longer worth what you just paid for it.
And a day later, it's 3 to 5% less. So, you just panic sell out of that house and move somewhere else. Now, that metaphor is not a perfect metaphor for trading stocks because you do need to manage risk. But what I'm trying to tell you is down here at these prices, Apple is an extremely attractive riskreward.
Meaning, yes, we may not catch the exact bottom on this trade, but I do suggest continuing to look for opportunities to buy into this trade if it continues to go lower because I strongly believe it's going into the 220s. And as I showed in the last video, these riskreward ratios are ridiculously good and they come by very few and far in between.
So on Apple, I want to give you more levels to consider. The most important level right here will be right around 192 to 193. If that breaks, I will continue to buy dips towards 187 and 184 and then worst case scenario 179. Now, if we slice through all of that support and we just continue lower, it will be getting riskier and riskier to continue to buy and you will have to look at ways to mitigate risk.
I doubt this is going to be the case where Apple just slices down. But you never know for sure. I think these are all going to be buying opportunities. Which means if you haven't entered this trade yet or you're still considering it, this would be another strong support right around 193 to 187. And I still think from these prices, we are going higher into the 220s, which is still ridiculously good risk ratios.
Now, if you disagree with me, that's completely fine. This is what I see in Apple stock. You do not have to follow this trade if you disagree with me. So, don't get overly emotional about it. It is completely fine. If you see something different in Apple and you think this is a bad trade, I'm sure you'll let me know about it below in the comments.
But believe me, it's okay if we disagree. If we lose this trade, that is a small loss for what could be a giant reward. And I'll take those trades 11 times out of 10. So, think about what I said about the house metaphor. If it just continued to drop in price after you just bought it, if you truly think you had a good price, you would only want to buy it even more if the price continued to go lower.
That's how I feel about Apple stock. So, I will be continuing to buy the dip on this trade idea. So, happy Memorial Day everybody. Have a great long 3-day weekend and I will catch up with you next week on Tuesday. So, thank you for watching everybody.
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