저자: Dividendology진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏의 버크셔해서웨이가 13F에서 구글(알파벳) 신규 매수(약 1,780만 주)를 공개. 구글은 최근 6개월 +66%, 검색 매출 성장률 Q2 12%·Q3 15%로 AI 우려 대비 견조. 검색 부문 PE가 과거 11배 수준에서 현재 PE 약 26.9로 역사적 평균과 유사. 애널리스트 평균 목표가 313달러(약 13% 상승). 향후 EPS 연 12.25% 성장 가정 시 2029년까지 연 10%대 수익률 전망. 과거 저평가 논리와 현재 평균 밸류에이션 정상화를 함께 제시하며 장기 보유 관점 강조.
다듬은 글
We have some massive breaking news. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just revealed a new position in Google stock. Berkshire Hathaway just released their form 13F and in this most recent quarter, Buffett only added one new position to his portfolio and it was none other than Google. He bought 17.8 million shares, which was a change of about 1.6% to his portfolio.
Now, with that change, it makes Google the 10th largest position in his personal portfolio. Now, if we look at Google in the last year, up 53.46%. But if we look at them year-to-date, up 45%. And if we look at the last 6 months, up 66%. So, the company is way outperforming the S&P 500 in the last 6 months.
So, what happened? Did Warren Buffett wake up to the fact that Google is an amazing business? A lot of people point out the fact that Buffett doesn't own a lot of tech outside of Apple, but Google's actually a business he's loved for a while now. In fact, I'm going to go ahead and play this clip from just a few years ago.
Another stock that you mentioned over the weekend saying you you should have known it early on was was Google, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, because you knew how much they could charge you when it came to Geico. Yeah, every word Geico paying them 10 bucks or something for every click. I mean, you 10 bucks 10 bucks and no no cost of goods sold.
I mean, and and it produced results for us. That's why we paid them the money. Uh So, I had seen the product work and I knew the kind of margins. I mean, I always said it's great to find something that costs a penny and sells for a dollar and is habit-forming. This doesn't cost anything. And and it it it's very useful.
I mean, if if you're look if you're looking at auto insurance on Geico, you know, it you you've got an interest in auto insurance. That's a very directed way of talking to people. So, the real question in my mind, I'd seen all of Vista before. I used to play bridge on all of Vista and I and what I didn't know was whether there'd be more entrants.
I didn't know enough about technology to know whether this really was the one that would stop the competitive race and all that. I uh but I should have bought Google, too. So, again, it's clear. Warren Buffett, he's liked Google for a while now. Now, what's interesting about Google stock is they've been on just an insane ride over the last year.
And we can see at one point this year, they were trading below $150 per share. And this was a stock that I was heavily covering during this time period. I even put out a video stating that Google looked like the best opportunity in the market. But sentiment around the stock at this time was incredibly low.
The belief was that AI was going to erode their dominance. Most notably was the belief that AI was going to hurt the Google search portion of the business. But if we look at the Q2 and Q3 earnings reports recently, look at what's happened to the search portion of the business. What we can see here is in Q2 of 2025, Google search revenue grew 12% year-over-year, a double-digit rate.
If we look at the Q3 earnings report, again, what we can see is Google search revenue grew at a 15% rate year-over-year. Now, for reference, if you go and look at my old Google videos, one of the methods I used to value Google was what's known as a sum of the parts method, where basically value each business segment for Google.
And for the YouTube, cloud, and even Waymo portions of the business, we use multiples that were comparable to other businesses. And the conclusion that we found at the time of that recording was that the Google search portion of the business was trading at just 11 times earnings. Only 11 times and that sector of the business was growing at a double-digit rate.
For reference, when we look at businesses like Coca-Cola, this is a company trading at a 23.78 multiple growing earnings at about 3, 4, 5%. If we look at another business like Pepsi, this is a stock trading at a PE multiple of 17.8. Again, higher than the Google search portion of the business at that time and they're only growing earnings at about 2 or 3%.
Now, I know they're completely different business models. And obviously, nobody was saying Coca-Cola and Pepsi are threatened by AI. But the point we have to make is that Google search portion of the business was trading at an incredibly low earnings multiple for a stock that was growing earnings in that business sector at a high double-digit rate.
And eventually, this was something the market woke up to. It became clear Google was a major player in the AI race. They were one of the best in reasoning. Their AI was one of the best in adaptive reasoning. And most notably, it's incredibly easy for them to integrate their AI into their already massive business ecosystem.
That's what led to the run-up over the last 6 months, up 66%. And like Buffett said, he loves the capital light business model. If we jump over to our stock screener, let's look at Google stock. And you can see all of this data will automatically load into my spreadsheet. And like always, if you'd like to be able to download any of these spreadsheets and get access to the Ticker Data add-on on Google Sheets that allows you to automatically import stock financials directly into your spreadsheet, then you can head over to tickerdata.com at the link in the description.
Now, when we look at Google stock, there's a couple of things we have to point out. Yes, revenue per share growing at an incredibly high rate. Earnings and free cash flow per share, the same is true. But look at these metrics down here. Return on invested capital. How profitable are the projects the company is investing their capital into?
We have four consecutive years where it's been over 20%. Typically, as a baseline, we want to see at least 10%. The high-quality companies can often achieve over 20%, which Google has now done for four consecutive years. If we jump over to the profitability sheet, we can see Google's 5-year revenue CAGR at almost 17% and the margins have actually been expanding over the last few years.
Last year's gross profit ratio of 58.2, the 5-year average was about 56.14. So, again, yes, the market has woken up to Google stock and it looks like Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway did in the last few months as well. They were probably adding capital somewhere in this range right here. So, now the question remains, is Google stock still undervalued?
It looks like in after-hours trading, it's getting that Warren Buffett premium already, trading at 281 in after-hours. So, let's see if we can calculate a fair value range for Google stock. Now, for reference, if we just strictly look at the average analyst rating, the upside is to $313 per share, giving them about 13% upside in the mid-term.
But if you know anything about Buffett, he didn't buy it for the short or the mid-term. He bought it for the long-term. So, let's run our valuations exactly like that. We'll jump over to our valuation sheet and look at Google. And for reference, let's look at that historical multiple valuation. We'll go ahead and zoom in and see how the market has historically valued this stock.
Now, right off the bat, we can see the average PE ratio over the last 10 years is about 29. But keep in mind, there's a huge outlier in 2017, which if we remove, the average PE ratio is really more like 25.86 compared to right now for the trailing 12 months, which is sitting at about 26.89. So, the reality is right now, it's trading right in line with its historic averages.
So, even though we've seen a huge run-up in the last 6 months, the stock is really just now trading at its average historic multiple. Now, what does that mean? Well, it means that the stock can continue to trade at this multiple and grow earnings at a double-digit rate, then the stock will see double-digit returns annually moving forward.
Let me show you what I mean. If we look at the sensitivity analysis model. We have to account for two different things to project the future returns, earnings growth as well as the future PE ratio. Now, again, they're trading right at their average PE multiple throughout history, so let's assume this doesn't change any.
I think it has the potential to go higher, but I don't want to be over-optimistic with our projections. Now, if we come down here, one of the cool features of the Ticker Data add-on on Google Sheets, again, that's how I import stock financials into my spreadsheet, but we can automatically import the average analyst EPS estimate in 2025, 26, 27, and 28, and 29.
We can see what the future earnings growth projections look like. And the projected EPS CAGR through the year 2029 for Google right now is 12.25%. So, again, double-digit earnings growth is projected. So, let's just assume that they achieve that average earnings growth projection of 12.25%. What we can see is by the year 2029, we're talking about a total return of close to 63%, which would be a compounded annual growth rate of above 10% and by 2030, about 83% or compounded return of close to 10.6%.
Now, keep in mind, that doesn't include the dividend, which Google did just recently announce they're going to be paying about a year ago. Now, make no doubt about it, the yield is low at just 0.3%. But for a company that's growing free cash flow at an incredibly high rate and is only using about 10% of that free cash flow to pay out the dividend, that could certainly grow pretty significantly in the future as well.
So, it's clear. Google stock still has upside at its current prices due to the fact it's growing earnings at a healthy double-digit rate. And right now, it's really still just trading in line with its historic average multiple. I think it's easy to see a stock that's gone up 66% in the last 6 months and to think that the opportunity is gone.
There's no doubt this was obviously a much better opportunity, but that doesn't mean opportunity doesn't still exist. And right now, it seems like an opportunity that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is still wanting to take advantage of. So, go ahead and let me know what you think of this news in the comments down below.
What do you think of the moves Warren Buffett's making in his portfolio? I'll be covering this more in future videos. channel. So, with all that being said, thank you guys so much for watching and please don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel.
Comments 0