🚨 BREAKING: BILL ACKMAN BUYS META STOCK!

요약 보기

빌 애크먼의 Pershing Square가 연간 투자자 발표자료(슬라이드 34)에서 메타(Meta) 신규 매수를 공개했다고 전함. 메타는 PE 22.16 수준으로 예상 EPS CAGR 17.37%, 광고 매출 중심, CapEx/매출 35% 이상으로 급증했으나 AI 광고 효율 개선으로 정당화 가능하다는 논리. 여러 밸류에이션(DCF, 역사적 PE, 동종 비교) 분석 결과 상승 여력이 있다고 주장하며, 애널리스트 목표가 852달러(약 28% 상승) 언급. 단, 영상은 메타 관련 발언이며 대상 자산 목록 중 메타는 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. We have some massive breaking news. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital just revealed that they have initiated a position in Meta stock. How do we know this is the case? They haven't even filed their form 13F yet. If you look at Dataroma, you won't see Meta anywhere on their list of holdings. Well, it's because they just released their annual investor presentation.

02. And if you scroll all the way down to slide number 34, you can see their 2025 positions that they initiated were Amazon and then also Meta stock. Now, this is really interesting for multitude of reasons. And what's actually ironic about this is about two to three months ago, I made a video on two stocks that I thought Bill Ackman was about to add to his portfolio.

03. And in that video, I stated that one of them was Meta stock. Now, how did I know that that was going to be the case two to three months in advance? Well, let me go ahead and play a clip that was an interview Bill Ackman had with Fox Business just about two to three months ago. It sounds like you're bullish going into the new year.

04. Are you poised to put new money to work in equities going into 26? Yeah, look, I think it's been an interesting market. You've had some enormously successful companies have generated huge returns this year. You've had a lot of stocks that are down a ton. So, I think it's a a very good market for stock pickers.

05. You know, we're very concentrated investors. And we're seeing some very high quality businesses showing up at very attractive prices. Uh and so I yeah, we'll we'll absolutely be putting money to work. We've actually got uh you know, approaching 15% cash and we're looking at a number of very interesting things.

06. So, what would it take for you to put that 15% cash to work? A big sell-off? No. Uh just uh finishing our due diligence on a company we really have wanted to own for years now available at a bargain price. You know, something like that. So, while Bill Ackman didn't reveal the exact position in that interview that he was going to add to his portfolio, he did give us some clues.

07. And at the end of that interview, he stated it was a stock picker's market. And that's actually something I was writing about over on dividendology.com just a few days ago. If you're not a member over there, be sure to sign up. You'll get a couple of emails from me every single week. But what you have to understand is right now, when you buy the index like the S&P 500, you're making a very specific bet.

08. Nearly 40% of your capital is allocated to just around 10 stocks. Those stocks are spending aggressively on AI infrastructure and free cash flow is being compressed by CapEx. So, even a slight pullback in just a few large stocks could cause the entire market to pull back as a whole. This is likely the reason that he feels this is currently a stock picker's market.

09. And what do we know about Bill Ackman? He's very clear on the type of businesses that he likes. In fact, my philosophy is actually pretty similar. More than anything, he likes simple, predictable, free cash flow generative businesses. Growing free cash flow is the ultimate sign that a company is increasing intrinsic value.

10. And the companies that deserve to trade at a premium are the ones that can predictably grow free cash flow. They have formidable barriers to entry. They have limited exposure to extrinsic factors that we can't control. And of course, we want them to be trading at an attractive valuation. So, that led Bill Ackman to none other than Meta Platforms.

11. Now, in the last year, Meta's down by about 7.56% and if we look at them year-to-date, they've traded relatively flat, up slightly in 2026. Now, what's interesting about this is if we look at their valuation, they're currently trading in the mid-range of their average PE multiple over the last 3 years, but their current forward-looking PE multiple is sitting at just 22.16.

12. Just 22.16. Why is that such an interesting forward PE multiple? Well, let me show you why. If we look at our sensitivity analysis, I've already plugged in Meta's stock and with Ticker Data, you can automatically import the estimated EPS average into your spreadsheet in the coming years. What we can see is Meta has a projected EPS CAGR of 17.37%.

13. So, exceptional earnings growth, but despite this, the stock is trading at just 22 times earnings. This is obviously a major reason as to why this stock got Bill Ackman's attention. So, let's talk about it. Let's talk about Meta Platforms for a moment. What type of business is this? And this is actually a stock that I've been covering semi-frequently on the channel lately.

14. But if we jump over to our stock screener and plug in Meta stock, and you can see all this data will automatically load into my spreadsheet. Now, like always, if you'd like to download any of the spreadsheets you've seen in this video and also get access to the Ticker Data add-on in Google Sheets that allows you to automatically import stock financials directly into your spreadsheet, then you can head over to tickerdata.com at the link in the description.

15. Ticker Data is currently running their Valentine sale where you can get 30% off the annual plans by using code love26 at checkout. With Ticker Data, you can automatically get 30-plus years of stock financials directly into your spreadsheet with over 70 different stock exchanges. So, if you're an international investor, Ticker Data is your best friend.

16. You can get crypto, forex, and commodities into your spreadsheet as well as ratios, dividend data, and analyst estimates. It's all the financial data you could ever need right at your fingertips. And keep in mind, we have over 20 ready-to-go premium sheets ready to track your portfolio and analyze your stocks, create stock watchlists, and perform any type of analysis that you could really want.

17. So again, be sure to check out Ticker Data at the link in the description and use code love26 at checkout to take advantage of the Valentine sale. Now, when we look at Meta, what we can see is pretty obvious. Revenue per share has exploded at an exceptional rate since 2015, going from 6.32 to in 2025, 79.72.

18. So, we're talking about a 10x in revenue per share in just a single decade. Earnings have followed, and free cash flow has followed as well. If we look at the profitability and income statement sheet and look at Meta, while there's plenty of metrics impressive for Meta such as the revenue growth over the last 5 to 10 years, look at these profit margins.

19. Last year's gross profit ratio at 82% in line with what we've seen over the last 5 and 10 years. Just astounding margins. Now, that being said, we can see EPS doesn't look quite as clean as revenue does. There's a little bit of choppiness in there. We can see dips really around 2019. We can see a dip in 2022.

20. Why did this happen? Will it happen again? Well, again, we have to remember what type of business Meta actually is. More than anything, this is an advertising business. 99% of the revenue they generate comes from advertising. And I've said this many times before when discussing Meta stock, but it's important to keep in mind.

21. For example, in 2022, we technically entered a recession because we had two quarters in a row of negative GDP. And what's the first thing that gets cut during difficult economic cycles? It's advertising. So, that is a risk to their business. We can see when advertising got cut, Meta's EPS went down significantly.

22. But, in the last few years, it has more than tripled. Now, on top of this, we need to talk about Meta in relation to their capex is pretty much true with really any big tech stock right now. Let's look at their capex to revenue. Now, when we look at this, you'll see a trend that's essentially true with any big tech stock that you look at right now.

23. Capex to revenue has surged in recent quarters, and it's potentially expected to continue to decline. We can see they used to be in maybe that 12 to 15% range. Capex to revenue is now sitting at above 35% for the last few quarters. Again, this is true for the vast majority of big tech stocks. Capex spending has essentially tripled in the last couple of years.

24. And so, the primary question as it relates to any big tech stock that you're looking at right now is, is that capex spending going to generate positive ROI? Will the investment be worth it? We have to remember in general, there are two types of capital expenditures. We have maintenance capex, which is spending required simply to keep the business running at its current level.

25. Think of stocks like Verizon, for example. But, then we have growth CapEx, which is on the other hand a discretionary investment aimed at expanding capacity, unlocking new revenue streams, and increasing cash flow. So, this is what Meta and other big tech stocks are aiming to do. So, we have to assess the ability of their CapEx spending to actually grow revenues.

26. And right now, this is how the market is determining how to value different stocks. For example, we can see Microsoft has sold off significantly because of CapEx spending. Meanwhile, Meta has increased due to CapEx spending. We could sit here and argue whether or not that's justified, but that's how the market is currently valuing their big tech stocks.

27. So, what's the argument for Meta stock? In the last year, down by about 7.55%, it seems the market is undecided. Now, obviously, they're spending on CapEx to improve artificial intelligence. And the benefits here are actually pretty clear to think about. Consider what Meta does. Look at their recent earnings report.

28. Again, this is an advertising business. What we can see is their daily active users is increasing. It's about half the world already. It increased by 7% year-over-year. Then they deliver ads. How many ad impressions do they have? Well, ad impressions increased 18% and 12% year-over-year for the fourth quarter and full year 2025.

29. So, more people are in the Meta ecosystem and more people are seeing significantly more ads. And on top of this, the average price per ad increased by 6% and 9% year-over-year for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. So, it's a triple whammy. More people, more ads, higher average price per ad. The belief is that AI will be able to increase ad targeting, conversion prediction, creative generation for people building ads.

30. If AI can lift ad performance just 1 to 2%, then that might be able to justify their increased CapEx spending. On top of this, they have the balance sheet to be able to justify this type of spending. If we jump over to the stock screener, we can see their debt to assets has risen lately, but it's still sitting at just around 23%.

31. But, the last thing we do have to make note of is Meta can't afford to not spend on CapEx. All of their competitors, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, are doing the exact same thing. You essentially have to compete in this AI race if you're a big tech stock or you're going to get left behind. But the beauty of Meta stock, at least at these current prices, is it's a very reasonable bet.

32. You're talking about a stock projected to grow earnings, like we saw earlier, at about 17%. That's trading at a forward PE multiple of just 22. Just 22 times earnings. So, what does the valuation and forward returns actually look like for Meta stock at current prices? Well, for reference, we can see they're currently trading about 9% above their historic average PE multiple.

33. So, let's not be overly optimistic. I think many people would argue that they do warrant a higher PE multiple, but let's say their trailing 12-month PE multiple stays around that 25.5 range. So, essentially, it's going to pull back. We're going to see multiple contraction. If they're able to achieve this EPS CAGR of 17.3%, you're still easily looking at huge outperformance.

34. 2030 and 2031 compounded returns would be close to 17% and would actually definitely be 17% when you consider the fact that Meta actually does pay out a small dividend. Right now, the starting dividend yield is just about 0.32%, but we could expect them to gradually increase this over time. Now, of course, this model isn't a best-case scenario for Meta.

35. If they grow earnings at this rate, they could certainly see some multiple expansion, which would significantly increase their returns over time, of course. But at the same time, it's also not a worst-case scenario. So, let's run it through a few more different valuations. If we jump over to our stock valuation sheet, let's look at a discounted cash flow analysis.

36. Now, again, as we know, free cash flow for these big tech stock will likely be compressed in the coming years due to the increased CapEx spending. For reference, if you look at TIKR.com, this is what the evolution of Meta's capital expenditures should look like in the coming years. These are the analyst estimates.

37. So, yes, it's already grown a lot, but it's going to continue to be high for the foreseeable future. So, let's say that they achieve maybe around 15% free cash flow growth at current prices. You can see that would actually only give them a little bit of upside. So, really the argument is that yes, in the short term free cash flow will be compressed, but in the long term it will substantially increase free cash flow.

38. But, based off this valuation multiple, you can see that has to be the case, otherwise Meta's current valuation is still not justified. If we look at a historical multiple valuation, you can still see they're trading in a reasonable valuation multiple based on how they've historically been valued. And then finally, if we look at this multiple's valuation, how are they trading relative to some of the other big tech stocks?

39. If we apply the same average PE multiple to Meta as these other big tech stocks, they'd be worth about $706 per share. So, definitely significant upside relative to how they're trading compared to their peers. So, yes, Meta's a very reasonable bet, especially at these prices right now. But, there's no doubt any big tech stock that you invest in, you have to be able to understand their capital allocation and assess the quality of their CapEx spending, because essentially that's going to determine their future success.

40. And right now, the average analyst's estimate is giving Meta around 28% upside with a price target of $852. So, yes, in the last year down by about 8% and essentially trading flat year-to-date. But, sentiment around this stock seems to be shifting. Bill Ackman has now added this company to his portfolio.

41. It's trading at a much lower valuation relative to its peers despite the fact CapEx spending is increasing. So, the reality is the market believes this CapEx spending is going to pay off for Meta. So, go ahead and let me know what you think in the comments down below if you plan on buying or selling.

42. And again, be sure to use code love26 at checkout to take advantage of the Ticker Data Valentine's Sale. So, with all that being said, thank you guys so much for watching and please don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel.