저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏 버크셔 해서웨이 포트폴리오(약 2,830억 달러, 41개 종목)를 Simply Wall Street로 분석. 현금 비중 약 30%로 신규 투자처를 찾기 어려운 상황. 평가 기준 포트폴리오 가치는 약 24.9% 저평가로 제시되나 PER 26.8로 미국 시장(19.3)보다 비쌈. 금융·기술주 비중 50% 이상, 애플 등 고밸류 종목이 평가를 낮춤. 과거 성과와 재무 건전성은 강하나 미래 성장 전망은 약함.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett's entire life is a case study of compounding. He was able to go from a net worth of $5,000 at the age of 14 to well over 100 billion by the age of 92. This was in large part due to the fact that Warren Buffett was able to outperform the S&P 500 during every decade of his investing career.
While there have been many other wildly successful investors, the reality is that no one has been as good as Buffett for as long as Buffett. And while it is true that Warren Buffett has now stepped down as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, the way the reality is that the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio, as we know it right now, was fully formed by Warren Buffett for the most part.
So, in this video, we're going to be taking a deep dive into the portfolio and more or less asking one simple question, is the portfolio currently undervalued? And to break this down, we're going to be using the Simply Wall Street portfolio feature. If you want to play around with the portfolio, I've shared it in the description below.
So, let's go ahead and dive in. So, when we're on Simply Wall Street looking at the portfolio tab, we can see that the estimated value of Warren Buffett's current portfolio is sitting at about 283 billion with 41 different holdings. Now, for most investors, 41 holdings is quite a large amount. And most of his largest holdings are probably names that you're somewhat familiar with: Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, Bank of America, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, Moody's.
But the reality is there's a lot of smaller positions in this portfolio at the same time as well. So, we do have to ask the question, why is there so many holdings in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio right now? And one of the easiest ways we can answer this question is by turning to Warren Buffett and looking at his comments on diversification.
Diversification is a protection against ignorance. I mean, if you want to make sure that nothing bad happens to you relative to the market, you own everything. There's nothing wrong with that. I mean, that that is a perfectly sound approach for somebody who who does not feel they know how to analyze businesses.
If you know how to analyze businesses and value businesses, uh it's crazy to own 50 stocks or 40 stocks or 30 stocks, probably. Uh because there aren't that many wonderful businesses. So, Warren Buffett clearly believes diversification more than anything is a protection against ignorance. So, why would one of the greatest investors of all time have 41 different holdings?
Well, the reality is that the law of large numbers is starting to kick in. Buffett has so much cash that it's starting to become difficult to intelligently invest all of it. Not only is his cash position climbing close to 400 billion, which could buy the majority of the stocks in the S&P 500, but Berkshire Hathaway's cash and cash equivalents as a percentage of Berkshire's assets is now sitting very close to 30%, one of its highest in decades.
So, it's clear Buffett would love to invest his capital, but it's becoming difficult to find opportunities. And when you review his portfolio activity, it's pretty clear that most of the time when he adds capital, it's to positions he already owns in his portfolio. So again, what are the potential best opportunities in his portfolio right now?
Well, for you Simply Wall St to look at the risk to reward analysis, the top five high reward positions in his portfolio right now. At number one, we have Allegion, who right now analyst price targets are giving this stock about 23.8% upside and pays a reliable dividend of about 1.63%. The second would be Domino's Pizza, who right now is in a major downturn, but they pay a reliable dividend of 2.45%.
Earnings are expected to grow at a healthy rate and they're trading 22% below their estimate of fair value. Now, if you look at the risk, you can see debt is not well covered by operating cash flow, but we've discussed this before. It's because of Domino's' very capital light business model, the franchise model.
If we look at the other three, we have Ally Financial, another financial stock, which you'll see Berkshire's heavily allocated to financials in their portfolio. We We see Constellation Brands, the alcohol stock. And then we have Lamar Advertising, the lone real estate investment trust in Berkshire's portfolio, and essentially it's a billboard company.
And according to Simply Wall Street, they're trading 30% below their estimate of fair value. Now, what does the actual portfolio snowflake for Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway look like right now? And essentially what Simply Wall Street is doing is it's taking into account five different key metrics from the entirety of the portfolio, the value, the future, the past, health, and the average dividend score.
Ironically enough, despite the fact most people consider Warren Buffett a value investor, it gets a relatively poor value score at 2.27 out of six. Now, the strength of the portfolio is how it's performed in the past and the overall health as well. So, when we look at the holdings, really it's clear these are stocks that historically speaking have performed very well, and from a balance sheet perspective are still relatively strong stocks, but overall it doesn't have a very strong future outlook.
The future score is just 1.82 out of six. Now, the question is, why would they be scored this way? Well, let's start to dive into this just a little bit more. Let's start by talking about the average dividend score. If we jump over to the dividend tab here on Simply Wall Street, one of the things we can see is their current yield of the overall portfolio is sitting at about 1.7%.
Now, this is significantly pulled back by Apple stock because that's a large holding in their portfolio that has a very low starting dividend yield. Despite the fact the vast majority of their holdings do pay a dividend, most of them are relatively low yielders. But a few of the big dividend payers are going to be stocks like Chevron, Coca-Cola, and Bank of America, Kraft Heinz Company, and American Express.
These five companies in total pay almost $3 billion a year to Berkshire Hathaway strictly in dividends. And keep in mind, all five of these are dividend growth stocks, meaning the amount they pay out in dividends grows every single year. For example, we can see what this dividend growth visualize would actually look like by looking at the dividend quality and forecast.
In the last 12 months, this portfolio has paid just under 4.6 billion, and based on Simply Wall Street's assessment, we can somewhat safely assume that in the next 3 years, assuming the holdings don't change, that they'll be generating over 5.5 billion in dividend payments. If we scroll down even further, one of the things we can see is exactly when those dividend payments for Berkshire Hathaway will be coming in.
So, obviously, if you're tracking your own portfolio, this is a good way to see those future dividend payments, also along with the dividend calendar. So, more than anything, it's likely that low starting dividend yield giving them a below average dividend score. But, perhaps what I'm more interested in is why is the value and future score so low?
And this is where we can really start to dive into the details. If we jump over to our analysis tab, here's the huge key takeaway for Buffett's portfolio. Based on the future cash flows that his underlying holdings are going to produce, Simply Wall Street has his portfolio at 24.9% undervalued. In other words, his total holdings are worth around 281 billion right now, but if they were to realign with the fair value according to Simply Wall Street, the portfolio would be worth close to 375 billion.
And keep in mind, that's not including his massive cash position, which is at all-time highs. Now, one of the things that I find interesting about this is we can see despite the fact that his portfolio is around 25% undervalued, we can see it's trading at a PE multiple of about 26.8 overall, while the US market is sitting at 19.3.
So, the underlying holdings, at least on a price to earnings basis, look a little more expensive. But, remember that PE multiple, you can only determine if a stock is undervalued if you also account for future earnings growth rates and what the overall quality or the moat of the business looks like.
So, what can we do instead? We need to account for future earnings growth. If we look at the future growth tab, we can see the future EPS projections for this portfolio sitting at about 12.2, which still sits behind the US market. So, if we jump over to the valuation tab and look at the price to earnings growth ratio, we can see his portfolio does look more expensive relative to the US market.
Now, why does this portfolio look so expensive? Well, it starts to make a little more sense when you actually look at what the breakdown of his allocation is by sector. If we scroll down, take a couple of notes. To start, you can see he has very little capital in areas like real estate investment trust or industrials.
If we scroll down, we can see most of his capital is going to be in energy, consumer staples, tech stocks, and financials. In fact, financials and tech make up over 50% of his entire portfolio. And a lot of that capital is strictly in Apple stock, a company that trades at a high valuation multiple despite the fact earnings aren't necessarily growing nearly as fast as they used to, which definitely isn't helping his overall portfolio valuation.
And then, as we saw earlier in the snowflake, past performance is where this portfolio has really shined. We can see return on equity, return on capital employed, return on assets, all areas where his portfolio has really thrived, especially compared to the broader US market as a whole. So, yes, the fact a few of his key holdings that are large positions in his portfolio aren't necessarily projected to grow earnings quite at as fast of a rate is certainly hurting the overall valuation for the portfolio.
But, as we've seen before, Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway has not been afraid to go against the grain. It's what's allowed them to outperform the stock market in every single decade since inception. So, I'm interested to hear what you think of Warren Buffett's portfolio right now. And if you do check out Simply Wall Street, remember you can always share your portfolio.
I'd love it if you shared it with the community. So, with all that being said, thank you guys so much for watching, and please don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel.
Comments 0