저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
뉴스 데이터가 예상보다 뜨겁게 나오고 있으며, 인플레이션 기대는 안정적이라 걱정은 크지 않다는 입장. 장기금리는 재정적자 우려로 올라 내년 4.75~5% 평균 가능성을 제시. 연준은 데이터 의존 대신 전략적 비전을 가져야 하며, 정치적 압력 때문에 비둘기파적 발언이 나올 수 있다고 봄. 2% 물가목표는 현실에 맞지 않아 2.5~3%가 적절하다고 주장하나, 진행자와의 논쟁에서 그 입장을 고수함. 금리 인하가 적어도 경제는 버틸 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
OK. To learn more about the current data, rising interest rates in the markets, Fed policy, and what comes out of it all, we want to invite Mohamed El-Erian. He is the chief economic advisor to Allianz. He is also President of Queen's College, Cambridge University. Mohamed, you sat here and listened to all this.
What do you think about this data? What do you think about the Fed's response? What do you think about what we are currently seeing in Treasury yields ? First, on the data: I think it has consistently been a bit stronger and hotter than expected. And this has been a consistent trend. Overall, I'm not worried about the " hotter" numbers, because they're only higher relative to the outdated inflation target.
Inflation expectations are stable , and I am very happy that the economy is stronger. Yields simply reflect a stronger and hotter economy, but so does bond issuance. I think next year we will see yields averaging between 4.75% and 5 %, depending on what we hear from the new administration. And the Fed needs to abandon this overreliance on data, move to a strategic vision, and, instead of fueling volatility, try to reduce it.
The Fed now faces two issues that it needs to address. The first is monetary policy, the second is the political landscape. Yes. And every time we hear the Fed, we have to remember that they are managing two different things, not one. Keep going, Nancy. I meant to say that in terms of the political landscape, it will be...
you know, after something happens. It wo n't be in advance, right? So they don't want to be blamed for the rise in mortgage rates to 7.5-8%. They don't want to be guilty of this. So we're going to hear comments that are more "dovey" than expected, because I suspect they're really afraid of becoming a political target.
Who is to blame for mortgage rates exceeding 7%? It is a combination of several factors. This is a combination of higher inflation. It's a combination of the fact that we continue to be ahead of the rest of the world. And this combination of what everyone is starting to realize, the " bond villains" are starting to realize— fiscal policy is out of control .
That was actually my question. Will 2025 be the year when the bond market truly looks at our deficits, which we have been accumulating for a long time, and says, "Enough is enough." I don't think that sounds like a rejection. I think they take it much more seriously. If you were in the UK, you would be much more worried.
There, 30-year bonds have hit a record high since the debt management office opened in 1998. Mhm. Uh, you have flashbacks to the Liz Truss days when suddenly your pension system. So I think we're less worried than the rest of the world, but yes, the markets have realized that the deficit and debt are on a trajectory that is not changing at all.
Will Washington recognize this and try to do something about it ? I think this takes time. We are lucky that we look better than others, right? So, we are still exceptional among developed countries. I mean, imagine, Becky, what the returns would be if we had n't attracted $500 billion into the fixed income market, particularly from the rest of the world .
Yes. The returns would be much higher than 5%, but we are fortunate that our economic exceptionalism attracts money to the country. You started by saying that the outdated view of inflation is a real problem , and that the Fed's 2% target is outdated. Just change the rules of the game and everything will be fine?
Well, first of all, they're not going to change the rules of the game. I think they have to accept that inflation will be a little higher. If they could set an inflation target today, and you've heard me say this for the last 3 years, looking at the structural elements of this economy, it would be in the range of 2.5–3%.
This would be a range of 2.5 to 3. Inflation expectations are stable . We have no problems with inflation. We have the issue of inflation relative to the 2% target. You've heard this concept before about "sticky" inflation, "sticky" inflation. In fact, this is stable inflation that does not disrupt the fundamentals of the economy.
Are you advocating for them to lower rates even if inflation is higher than they expected? Is that true? So my fear is exactly the opposite. If they really believed in 2% inflation, they would raise rates. Okay, so this is an argument against their promotion. Right. So, if they really believed that, I think we would hear: yes, we are aiming for 2% inflation, but in the future.
In perspective. And we will endure, maybe we will get one decrease this year. But we shouldn't want them to be stuck at 2%, because if they're stuck at 2% then rates go up. are growing. Do you think they will raise rates this year? No, I don't think so. Yes. What What will happen to the markets if if there are either no cuts or if they do increase cuts or raise rates?
I think we can live without cuts. I think we have adapted significantly. A year ago, we expected six to eight reductions. Now we are expecting one or two. We pushed back what the market expected until July. And this economy remains stable. We We got the main points from Waller's speech today, uh, about what he's going to talk about.
And I have to say, I was a little surprised. This was more dovish than I expected, as they worked so hard that the market didn't expect them to cut rates every meeting. It sounded softer and raised more questions about it. I don't know what you think about his comments. Yes, I was as surprised as you.
I don't know Governor Waller very well, but I know for sure: if I were at the Fed now, I would have to navigate two planes: monetary policy and politics. And this, sorry, many agree with you, because we can get out of some of this debt through deflation, but the difference between 2% and 3% in compound interest for the dollar is devastating.
And and I don't know, for you to just brush it off is a little strange. I mean, there's a reason they want 2%. Anyone can push the boundaries of goals. I mean, if you calculate 3%, it's 50% higher than 2%. Where did 2% come from? I'm not I'm not I No, no, but 2% come from 3% that would make us all feel terrible in 10 years .
from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Okay. in the early 90s. That seems like a good number to me. But this is an arbitrary number . What you should What you should take up is an arbitrary number. I mean, if you want to deflate 36 trillion, let's deflate it to 10. I don't want to knock the ground out from under American economic exceptionalism.
I think we are ahead of the rest of the world. We work better. I think we are investing in the economies of tomorrow, in the growth engines of tomorrow. If we are not the government No, the private sector, everything else. If you push this economy into recession, the private sector—that's not what causes inflation.
Joe, if you throw this economy into recession, you will lose not only your current standard of living, but your future standard of living as well. We are in a very good position. 3% means loss of future standard of living. That's the problem. Two and a half to three—that's what I said. You immediately went to three.
Well, if you say three as an upper limit. And as long as inflation expectations are stable , you can maneuver. Better buy Bitcoin, Mohamed. He bought it. Protection from a long time ago. Not enough. None of us did enough. Devil. What do you think about the Michael Barr situation? I believe that this is a person who took the hit for the sake of the Fed.
Given the political moments. I think he resigned to protect the Fed and again to help navigate this political landscape. Because you believe that if he didn't do it, he could be challenged, and then the independence of the Fed would be threatened. Right. Right. Well, there's something to think about, Mohamed. Nice to see you here in the studio. Thank you for inviting me. Thank you.
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