Kevin Warsh *JUST* Bailed out the Stock Market HIMSELF

요약 보기

워시 연준 의장 발언 이후 9월 금리인상 확률이 하락했다고 해석하며, 기대인플레이션(5년 BEI) 안정과 고용 위험을 근거로 연준이 10월·12월에 동결할 가능성이 크다고 주장. AI 투자 붐과 고용 U자형 조정 가능성도 언급. 본인은 Kalshi 금리인상 옵션(16%)에 소액 매수 의사를 밝힘. 유료 구독·스폰서 홍보 포함.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Oh my God, I'm falling asleep here. But you know what gave me more energy than a double serving of energy drinks and a cup of coffee? This is the sound of the notifications coming in about how Kevin Warsh is saving this market. That's right. Let me explain, and I think it will bring some clarity to the help we just received.

02. Not from Mr. Waller, the current "dove" who is supposed to be neutral on the betting committee. No, no. Kevin Warsh himself just saved this market. And do you know how we figured it out? I just want you to look at November 15th. Sorry, it's September. The September 15, 2027 futures target for a rate hike, yesterday morning after the consumer price index.

03. So, it was before the consumer price index. So let's do something like "to CPI." OK. We expected about a 3.17 rate increase, which was built into the price. Then we received the CPI data. We laid down somewhere around 3.8. And that was the day before the CPI. We had about 3.7 even before that. And then this morning after the hot CPI, we were at about 3.35 increases that are due by September 15th.

04. Now, after these comments from Worsh, we have 3,024. In other words, we see the chances of these additional rate hikes due to hot CPI and CPI reports disappearing. I mean, to be fair , the IVC this morning—it's, bro, 80% fuel, 50% gasoline. This is madness. But what exactly did Kevin Warsh buy ? Oh my God.

05. Oh my God. Oh my God . Oh my God. Let's move on here to what we call the "alpha ribbon," baby. You can get it for free right now on the "Meet Kevin" app. The entire "Meet Kevin" app will be redesigned by the end of the year. So what we have now is very exciting. This is just a small part of what is to come.

06. That's pretty cool. But look at this. Urgent: Vorsh. That's because he just gave a speech in Taiwan, I think. But anyway, I want to sleep. We have to get up early tomorrow. But here we are. Kevin Warsh: Fed task forces are tasked with creating new intellectual capital to assist the FOMC. Now this is interesting, because remember, Warsh said, "Oh, we'll get information from the task forces at the end of the year." Well, it kind of hints at December, it kind of hints that he's willing to wait for information from these groups.

07. And, of course, just because you received information from the working groups doesn't mean you can implement it instantly. Maybe this year we'll limit ourselves to one time , boys and girls. I think this is what Kevin Walsh is saying: "Hey, we need to wait for the working groups to decide." Let's take a look at some of the other things he talks about.

08. The Fed will hold an on-site hearing on artificial intelligence in San Francisco. AI will make the economy more productive. There will be more wealth, but the path to it will not be easy. AI will transform the real economy, but the short-term impact on employment is uncertain. And this is a very important line, because if Kevin Warsh says, “Hey, listen, we have to be careful, there are potential tail risks; "If we go too far, if we raise rates too quickly to control inflation expectations that are already under control, then we could destroy the labor market." What have we gained in the last few days?

09. Remember the CPI report: workers' pricing power has declined. What did we get this morning regarding the retail sales control group? Retail sales to consumers excluding energy and gas did not meet expectations in this control group. This is another example of thinking, "Damn, wait a second." What is happening?

10. Is the labor market starting to decline? Because once the job market starts to go down, it takes about a year for people to start realizing, "[ __ ], the unemployment rate is going up, it was 4.2, then 4.3, then 4.4, then 4.6, then 4.8." You know, no one will care whether it's 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.7, or 4.8.

11. Even when it reaches 5%, people will say, “Oh my god, it’s really started to grow again. This is not good ." You know, all this takes time. It might take, you know, 12 months for people to really see these changes year over year. So I think what Kevin Warsh means by saying, " Look, we need to be very careful with these tail risks," is : why should we be too aggressive about AI right now if inflation expectations are stable ?

12. And that's exactly what we're seeing now. they were at the beginning of the year. Not only are we down significantly from the beginning of the year, we are also well below the level we were at when Mr. Worshy Worsh made his rate hike. I, I'll read you the numbers. So, at the beginning of the year, we jumped all the way to 2.56 on the 5-year breakeven indicator.

13. Literally at the turn of the year. So, January 1st was closer to where we are now. That's about 2.3. We are currently at around 2.35. And so, within two weeks of the beginning of the year, well, two to four weeks, we were at 2.5. Then, when the war was going on, we were at the 2.7 inflation breakeven level.

14. Right before the Fed meeting, we went up to 2.5. They dropped back to 2.35. So we are at about 2.3 in terms of inflation breakeven. This is not necessarily a reason for another hike in October, despite the hot data we are receiving. I just rediscovered this. And so I think he realizes, here's the trouble , you know, if we move too fast and don't give Donald Trump time to make a deal, and he's probably on the phone with Trump, and Trump says, "Dude, I'll make a deal.

15. Like, just wait. Just wait, man. Like, everything will be fine." Uh, I would n't, I wouldn't be surprised if Donald Trump was doing this to warn Kevin Walsh, "Hey, uh, you know, can you guys skip October and I promise I'll have a deal for you." And you know what happens when we have a deal? You know, the rates are going to drop dramatically, right?

16. Of course, that's exactly what they expect . Uh, now I want to show you what else was said, but I also want you to see this because I think it's incredible. This morning in our alpha report we mentioned that it is worth buying on the dip if we bounce off $715. Look at this, friends. On this chart, we dropped to 715.85.

17. If you look at the one-minute chart, we dropped to $754.3. Then we bounced back. When we started bouncing here, we set a buy alert. We set notifications. We said, "Listen, we're buying." We told everyone we were going to do it. Then we set a notification that we were doing it. So, we warned everyone in our alpha report about what our strategy would be.

18. We said this in the alpha report. Then we actually invested a six-figure sum into it. If we say we will do something, then our word, as they say, is worth its weight in gold. So . Remember: : alpha reporting, portfolio transparency, closed-end live streams, all nine courses, agent plans, research terminal, stock terminal, real estate terminal—you name it .

19. Go to mekevin.com and see for yourself. But in any case, let's continue. So there are negative tail risks, and the Fed needs to think about financial stability risks. Think about what happened today. It is possible that someone went bankrupt today due to asset liquidation this morning, and probably one of the reasons for the QQQ crash was someone's liquidation , and there are also rumors that some small hedge fund like Leopold could have gone bankrupt.

20. I joked on Twitter where you can follow me as @realmeKevin. I joked, "Hey guys, looks like we're going to meet the great Leopold II soon," only I pronounced it as "Leo- Fold II." Anyway, it's just me—Meet Kevin. But in any case, the Fed must take into account the risks to financial stability. This doesn't sound like the words of a person saying, "Dude, we're way behind in fighting inflation ." We need to raise the stakes even more.

21. That sounds like someone who is very, very careful about not going too far. So let's take a look at everything else we have here. So, his speech is right here: Kevin Warsh will make decisions about October and December at those meetings. Now we have structural growth , an investment surge. Remember, the Fed can't do anything about the investment surge.

22. This is another way of saying, "Hey, there's nothing we can do about this right now." He is trying to dampen inflationary expectations. That's exactly what he does. Oh, there it is. I set my computer to open it now. Sorry, I was a little busy for a minute. Here we are. Look at this. Look at these inflation expectations (break evens).

23. Look how stable it is. And I want you to see the beginning of the year. So January was really this surge right here. And then, of course, we went to war. Uh, and when we had a ceasefire, everything went downhill. This is where the peak is, that's when rates were forced to rise. We do n't have that peak anymore.

24. And until we have that peak, I really think the chances that you won't see an increase this year are pretty high. Williams has already hinted that we may not see a raise at all in 2027. And think about how beneficial it will be for the economy and the market in general. My God, this will be real euphoria.

25. But in any case, we will meet several more times this year. These will be defining moments that will clarify what is happening with production, employment, and inflation. Look at this. It clearly signals that we are now putting employment first because we are worried that AI will destroy jobs. People don't believe me when I say this, but all you have to do is study history.

26. And frankly, when I say " study history" today, for many, and there's nothing wrong with that , I mean just ask your AI, okay? But usually the impact of new innovations on employment is U- shaped. This is actually very problematic, but it is important for you to understand this. unemployment. So, you have a new innovation, right?

27. You get some moment of new innovation, a steam engine or something like that. At first, people see it as an experiment and out of curiosity. Will it really make a profit? Can it really replace jobs? When people come to the realization, "Oh my God, yes, this could replace jobs," which is exactly what we're getting at with AI, man, programming, you know, this was earlier this year, now you have to be an AI engineer who can actually build infrastructure.

28. In any case, programming as such is almost disappearing for regular coders. Uh , video editing, AI does it. Emails, AI does it. Web design, AI—it's scary. But anyway, people are starting to use it. You can really see the hiring where they say, "Oh, we need steam engine engineers or whatever, AI engineers, whoever." And then people implement it and think, "Oh my God, we can cut so many [ __ ] jobs." And then you get this kind of stretched U.

29. I'm probably saying this too early , but usually you have this stretched U where you first see a surge in hiring. This is roughly where we are now. Then there's usually this elongated U- shaped curve, which is recessionary, because new innovations are deflationary , and a lot of people are laid off.

30. You know, maybe this is the break-even point of employment, and then you create new jobs, and as a result there will be more of them than there were before. So it will be much higher than that. We will have higher productivity, more prosperity, everything will be better. But first, you may have to go through a period of hell.

31. And that's one of the reasons why I'm so careful to emphasize: look, I'm optimistic that we're going to have another period of euphoria. This party isn't over yet. We buy on the dip. But I also believe that debts need to be paid off. You know, even to people who have mortgages at 2.9% or 4%, I say: no, friends.

32. Pay off your debts. You know, it's just not worth it right now. For example, I don't want to have debts. I don't want to be a lender right now either. To be fair , we just reinvested just two days ago. Received a letter from the Department of Real Estate stating: "We plan to approve you as a lender in November 2026." And I'm like, "Oh, that's cool." I'll just put it on the shelf.

33. We'll add this to our arsenal , because I think the real time for lending is still ahead. Okay, this is between us. Don't tell anyone about this strategy, because this is our plan for making money if everything goes wrong. So, between us: when we're in hell, the stakes will drop to zero. And you know what will work really well in this business?

34. #no guarantees. This is not a promise. Lending. You must prepare in advance. Before, you know, people would say, " Oh, you're lucky." Isn't luck the meeting of preparation and opportunity? God, how trite. I'm turning into an old dad. Fedwall says, “After the September FOMC meeting, the world was generally in line with our expectations.” You see, yes, right here.

35. Their expectations. Yes, that's right. And this has been the case since the September meeting. In other words, hey, after the September meeting, we met his expectations. He literally directly saved the markets and told you frankly that this was my expectation. He just told us that. This is, well, sort of, right here.

36. Oh, okay, that's great. This is fantastic news. Okay, it was the Finance Ministry official before him. A surge in investment is the most important thing happening in the economy right now. AI will affect demand in the economy before supply. This is an inflationary factor. I don't believe in saying what I will do at meetings until the end of 2026.

37. There is no need to prejudge the results of the meetings. AI will help central banks work with data more confidently. Their working groups will give them confidence, perhaps in a lower inflation rate, which they simply sucked out of their fingers. AI will change the real economy, but the impact on employment is uncertain in the near term.

38. Okay, here's your risk. This is your tail risk. This is a red flag. OK. Working groups. The US is investing in new technologies through the private sector. The Fed is not trying to figure out who is right and who is wrong. The Fed should think about financial stability. There are negative risks that politicians can do something about.

39. In other words, don't destroy the job market. He is already quite weak. That is , yes, it is positive, but still weak. 75% of Fed staff do not work on monetary policy . We must work on culture. We will not give you any hint about the October meeting. He gave a lot of hints. Okay . The Chairman of the Fed should be the head of all divisions of the Federal Reserve System.

40. Institutional trust is very important. He already told you that the expectations matched what they wanted. I don't deal with inheritance issues. I'm trying to get the policy right. I am proud that Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke left the Fed with the highest institutional credibility. Oh, he just didn't mention Powell.

41. Oh, that's an insult to Powell . That is, he has long criticized Powell regarding trust. So, that's pretty straightforward, damn it . You literally crossed Powell off the list on purpose, dude. Those meetings must be awkward. Wow. You know what we should do is check the odds of one rate increase now.

42. Yes. So, I've talked about this before, quite directly on the channel, but I think there's a real chance that we'll only get one rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and I think those odds have just increased, or at least they should increase after this. So what we want to look at is here. Well, the Fed keeps rates on hold in October.

43. That's good. And what we need is a Kalshi rate hike this year. Okay, this is what we need. Let's move on here, and here is exactly one option , 16%. Oh, that looks pretty appealing, especially after such a confluence of expectations. Dude, the payoff could be pretty good. I'll probably buy this or even more.

44. Because I do n't even have to keep it up to the end. I just need to hold out until the Iran deal. I've owned this before. I've already entered and exited this position, but I want to buy right now because if you look at the expectations table, he told us that after the meeting, the world matched their predictions.

45. That is, he is the one who gives us clues. It's like a comment on the rate hike that was in Jackson Hole, right? I don't know, dude. This looks interesting. So, no guarantees, okay? You know, this is n't some kind of financial advice or anything like that. But, if you want to place bets, remember that you can always go to Kalshi on what you think will happen with the Fed raising rates, call it prediction markets.

46. We don't like to call it betting markets, but anyway, , you get $25 free if you use this code: kshi.com/r/meet. You can also scan the QR code. They are a paid sponsor of the channel. You can use the code meet Kevin when registering. But honestly, I'm just going to go in there and buy some more right now, because the more I read this...and I don't know, maybe it's self-deception , right?

47. But then again , I don't need to hold it to maturity. I just need to double my capital and get out. So I'm going to go into this particular option. Yes. I don't know, I'll deposit a couple hundred bucks and just issue a warrant. Okay. Yes, these are their limits. You invest 200 bucks. Okay. Yes. Yes.

48. Yes. 500 bucks. I don't know. Somewhere around that . So, you know, I'm going to put...we're going to put another 200 bucks in here. That's it. OK. Steeply. So, uh...I'm pretty excited about this. We'll see where this goes, but you know, I'm kind of jumping up and down inside because these Fed hints were a pretty clear step toward salvation, and they kind of confirm Waller's point, like, "Oh yeah, you know, we're, uh, we're, uh, we're doing okay." Expectations are stable .

49. So, a good evening conversation. Join us for the “Alpha Report” tomorrow morning. It's only about 6 hours away. at meet kevin.com or reinvest.com, whichever is more convenient for you. The link is also in the description. See you all there. Thank you very much. Goodbye and good luck. .