저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 신흥국은 2015년 이후 약세로 미국 증시 대비 낮은 밸류에이션이라 매력적이며, 미국 주식은 고평가이고 향후 3년간 기대수익률은 낮다. [미국 경기와 증시] 미국 경기는 주식시장이 이끄는 자산 주도형 구조라 주가가 10~20% 하락하면 경기침체가 올 수 있다고 봄. 트럼프는 2020년 재선을 위해 경기와 증시를 중시하며 연준 금리인하로 주가를 부양하려 하지만, 금리만으로는 증시가 움직이지 않는다고 봄. [기대수익률] 보수적 투자자는 향후 3년간 주식에서 큰 수익을 내기 어렵다고 봄. 미국 증시는 2018년 1월 수준과 비슷해 횡보 중이며 투자자들은 장기 기대수익률을 낮춰야 한다고 주장. [금·달러·암호화폐] 금(Gold): 단기적으로 약 50달러 하락 가능성이 있으나 2~3년간 20% 이상 상승 가능. 암호화폐: 일부는 추가 상승 가능성. 미국 달러: 연준 금리인하로 2년 뒤 약세 전망(주요 베팅). [원자재] 구리·니켈·아연·알루미늄 등 산업재는 중국 경기 의존도가 높음. 농산물(대두·옥수수·밀)과 커피 등 소프트 원자재는 바닥을 확인한 것으로 보이며 매력적이나, 선물 롤오버 비용 때문에 ETF 투자는 비싸고 농업·비료·육류 기업 주식 매수가 더 낫다고 제시(JBS 언급). 아프리카돼지열병으로 돼지고기 수요와 대두 수요가 추후 증가할 수 있음. [지정학·무역전쟁] 브렉시트는 영국 경제 규모상 큰 문제 아님. 인도·중국 성장은 지속 전망. 미·중 무역전쟁은 어리석은 아이디어로 모두가 손해, 단기적으로 중국의 고통이 크지만 장기적으로 중국에 유리하고 미국에 불리하다고 봄. 신네오콘의 전쟁 위험 우려. [부문별 전망] 대마 주식은 붐이 끝남. 비트코인은 3월 이후 3,200달러에서 1만 2천 달러 이상으로 상승 후 조정. 금·은·백금은 조정 후 여전히 매력적. 연기금은 애플·아마존·넷플릭스·구글·반도체주에 수십억 달러를 투자했지만 금 비중은 1% 미만이라고 지적. [신흥국] 신흥국 전반(인도 제외 언급, 전체적 관점)은 2015년 이후 약세로 미국 대비 크게 저평가되어 있어 미국 증시보다 매력적이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
now Mark fa editor and publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report spoke exclusively to nikun about the prospects of a recession outlook on emerging markets and how to spot the next booming asset as he is known for listening to this exclusive conversation the US Central Bank in other words the Federal Reserve began increasing rates uh very slowly in December 20115 but it's recently cut the rates again so overall I would say that actually this whole economic expansion since 2009 was accompanied by excessive credit growth uh excessive Leverage and large fiscal deficits and Ultra expansionary monetary policies Ultra considering uh the strengths of the economy Mark last time when interest rates they started moving out down and when we had negative interest rates in uh Europe money moved back into emerging market equities but that is not the phenomenon suddenly soft Commodities are moving higher and investors are revisiting gold so do you think this time around the cycle could turn in historical correlations may not hold true well I think uh the following I think that Emerging Markets overall I'm not talking here about India specifically but overall they peaked out in 20015 and say since then they've been in a bare market and have grossly underperformed the US so regardless of what you think uh I believe that an investor should rather look at emerging economies at the present time than at the US Stock Market which in my thinking looks very expensive where just the fundamentals of equities and the US looks to me to be on the high side Mark uh do you think the Joker in the pack and no pun intended here could be US president Donald Trump because he's committed to keep I guess the US economy Alive and Kicking and the Republican Administration is extremely cognizant of what US fed would do and where US Stock markets are moving so you do have an Administration who frankly uh is bothered about stock market movement and that is a you know good safe picture for investors to have yes I mean uh first of all I have to say that Mr Trump changes his views about five times a day but he is kind of desperate to get reelected in 2020 and that's not that far away we have the election in about in a little more than a year and for him to be reelected he has to show a strong economy he cannot uh be in a recession in the US now the recession in the US uh because it's an asset driven economy in other words uh we have a unusual situation in most Equity markets not in India I have to stress but in most other Western markets where it's not the economy that drives the stock market but it's the stock market that drives the economy so the stock market goes up the economies perform okay if stocks drop 10 20% and we're not down 10% from the peak we're down modestly but but if it drops 10 20% we'll have a recession so he's very conscious about the stock market and he believes that the Federal Reserve by cutting rates could uh essentially boost Equity prices I'm not so sure about that because I think the equity Market uh nowadays looks at different factors than just monetary factors because if you look if you just looked at Monet monetary factors the Japanese Nik should be the strongest stck Market in the world and it isn't or European markets that have had negative interest rates for a very long time they should be the strongest Market but they're not You' not shied away from calling a spade a spade which is that when you have smacked when you've smelt or when you've understood that there are asset bubbles in Global Financial markets you've gone on record you've come on my channel you've gone to other uh platforms and you've said go short sell stocks what will be your favorite trade for next 3 years long or short if long yes if short where well I I think that uh before I answer this question uh in details I have to state that in my view if you're a prudent investor you're not going to make a lot of money in equities over the next three years now if someone comes to me and says well uh if you invest in this company and this company goes up 10 times you'll make a lot of money yes maybe one company goes up 10 times and 900 companies don't go up you understand you take have to take big risks if you really want to make a lot of money my return expectations are very low in Europe I give you an example nobody bought that but in 2017 the Austrian government issued a 100-year bond okay 100 years the coupon was 2.10% it was issued at 100 the interest the 2.10% which is not a lot but people buy these bonds and but you're not going to make a lot of money out of these bonds now you made a lot of money by buying us treasuries over the last 6 months the stock market in the US is not higher than it was in January 2018 in other words 18 months ago we've been trading sidewards and I think that may be the pattern that we have to look for so in terms of return expectations I think investors have to uh really lower their long-term expectations I think gold is okay near term it is overboard I think we'll go down maybe $50 but I think it could be you know up 20% over the next 2 three years or maybe more I think some cryptocurrencies may still go up and as a big bet I would say the US dollar is likely to be weaker in two years time because the FED will cut rates uh and I think they will cut them aggressively and that should weaken the US dollar which is very High compared to other countries currencies Mark last time when we saw significant decline in the US dollar and that was in 2012 and 2013 money moved back into Commodities uh that was one asset which saw a large inflows out of dollar uh what are the chances that this time around history may not repeat itself given that China is slowing down and the trade warfar is real well I think uh we have to distinguish between this commodity and that commodity as you know some Commodities like copper nickel zinc aluminum steel and so for they depend on the economy of China to a large extent on the other hand gold is not an industrial commodity and it does not depend on the demand uh from China it depends on investor sentiment towards gold and it depends on essentially central banks monetary policies if they print money then it's likely that gold will go up in the long run in the short run it doesn't have much of a correlation and the Commodities that I think are going to go up the this year some have actually bottomed out are the agricultural Commodities in other words uh soy beans corn wheat and then the softt coffee and so forth I think they are attractive but and I want to emphasize here if if you invest in these Commodities timing is very important because the rollover of Futures is very expensive and if you buy an ETF uh the cost of this ETF because they also roll over uh the Futures every month the cost is incredibly expensive so for an individual to play the commodity Market is not so simple the best is probably to buy plantation stocks fertilizers and uh meat companies as an example we have in the US JBS uh which is a chicken uh producer processor uh and as you know we had have the swine flu in China the African swine flu initially this reduces uh the supply of pork but later it creates additional demand for pork and additional demand for soybeans and so these price are likely to go up but not right away where do you think other uh you know immediate sensitive issues are headed brexit the face of European Union uh the way American and the Chinese are fighting I'm talking about lot of unrelated topics here but these are topics which are geopolitical and economic in nature which could have an impact on financial markets and Global markets and Global finances for next 12 18 months I don't think that uh brexit is a big deal uh because the British economy is not what it was uh under the British Empire at the end of the 19th century uh today Britain is an insignificant economy in the context of a world that has an Indian economy that is very large a Chinese economy that is very large and these economies are still growing they have some uh children's sicknesses from time to time and setbacks but in general the Indian economy will grow as well as the Chinese economy with one provision with one Proviso we need peace and uh the US has a group of people the neocons uh they are in favor of creating trouble everywhere not just in Iraq and Afghanistan and uh maybe in Iran they want to create trouble everywhere and uh so maybe one day someone will lose his patience and there'll be War which the neocons they like because as you know in war times uh people can make a lot of money so this is about it's about money and uh obviously for financial markets uh War conditions would be very bad because they there would be a lot of defaults I presume that some countries would say well in case in this case I'm not going to pay and then it spreads and so we need to hope that there will be peace uh but I think in general investors don't pay enough attention to the worsening geopolitical conditions I think the geopolitical conditions today are much worse than they were 10 20 years ago and we have this trade War this trade war is now really a stupid idea it will hinder economic growth uh like every war nobody will emerge as the true winner everybody will lose some people will lose more than others my sense is that actually near term there will be a lot of pain in China but in the long run the trade war is rather favorable for China and will be unfavorable for the US so mark my closing comment I'm going to steal it from the headline of your newsletter boom Doom and Gloom where do you think there is a boom where do you think the Doom is a about to start and where do you think there is going to be a lot of Gloom well I think we have more volatility so when you we talk about boom uh it may be a boom for 6 months you know you had just the cannabis stocks in America and Canada they were booming but now it's over uh we have uh since March of this year Bitcoins have gone up from 3,200 to over 12 th000 now they backed off again somewhat but there was a boom and then we have the Boom in Gold surprisingly Less in silver and less in Platinum but I think uh after a correction the precious metals are still uh interesting because if you look at how the Pension funds are invested they own billions of dollars in apple in Amazon in Netflix in Googles uh and uh the semiconductor stocks but billions you ask them how much do you have in Gold most of them have not even 1% in gold
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