Mark Mobius says, 'India to become a $3 trillion economy by FY20'

요약 보기

한 줄 결론: 인도 예산안을 긍정 평가하며 중장기 인도 투자 매력을 강조하고, 단기 조정 가능성은 인정하나 상승 추세는 유지된다고 봄. 예산안 평가: 중소기업 세제 혜택, 농촌 지원, 인프라 강조를 긍정적으로 평가. 국영기업 상장 확대와 실행(민영화)이 핵심이라고 언급. 해외 채권 발행: 인도 국채의 해외 발행은 정부 신뢰도와 자본시장 신뢰도를 높이는 좋은 조치. 미국 금리 인하로 해외 수익률 수요가 커 타이밍이 좋다고 봄. 세금: 단기 자본이득세는 과도하지 않고 관료적 부담이 없다면 큰 문제가 아니라는 입장. 밸류에이션: 역사적으로는 비싸 보이지만 성장률과 기업 실적을 감안하면 저렴하다고 판단. 재정정책: 재정적자·부채/GDP 2~3% 수준은 너무 보수적, 5% 수준까지 허용해 인프라 투자 필요라고 주장. 부채비율 우려는 불필요. 소비와 투자: 소비 둔화는 일시적일 것으로 보며 소비재주 선호 유지. 인프라 관련주와 인프라 자재·제품 공급 기업을 더 선호. 민관협력(PPP) 실행이 관건. 금융: 은행 재자본화(7만 크로어 루피)와 NBFC 구조조정을 긍정적으로 보며, 해당 섹터에 직접 투자 중이고 유망 기업 존재를 언급. 글로벌: 연준 금리 인하로 고정수익 수요 증가, 미국 시장 비중이 높은 투자자들에게 신흥시장 분산 필요성 강조. 인도가 성장 기회 측면에서 최상위. 농촌: 농촌 지원이 부족했다는 우려에 대해 오히려 다행이라고 평가, 인구의 도시 이동과 인프라 고용이 장기 성장의 핵심이라고 봄. 증시 전망: 단기 조정은 있겠지만 장기 상승 추세 유지. 중소형주와 대형주 모두 자본시장 강화 수혜 기대. 실적 시즌: TCS 등 IT 기업 실적에 일부 실망이 나올 수 있으나 일시적일 것으로 전망. 미·인도 무역 합의 가능성은 긍정적 요인. 추가 투자 선호: 인프라 외에 소비자 분야(특히 소비재·필수소비재)와 NBFC를 선별적으로 선호. 1인당 소득 증가로 소비재 회복이 빠를 것으로 기대.

다듬은 글

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01. we got a very special guest as well on the phone line with us Mark Mobius who's uh joining us to discuss and decode really uh the budget takeaways and how we should perhaps now view markets going forward Mark thanks so much for joining us let me first get you know some of your takeaways from the budget this time in terms of uh you know in terms of an indicator of policy of Reform uh from a market standpoint perhaps uh do you feel that it was in line with expectations or would you have liked to see more well I think it's a it's a good S I believe that the budget emphasized very nicely the importance of the small and medium-sized industry and giving them tax breakes and encouraging Innovation and Entrepreneurship that's very very good uh also of course the fact that they are are going to be giving more to the farmers U is uh in the rural areas is good and the emphasis on infrastructure as well uh what I would like to see of course is implementation of the privatization uh one of the interesting points of the budget is that they mentioned or she mentioned that uh they wanted to uh have listings more listings of state owned Enterprises and a very interesting part of that was the recognition that ETFs or exchange traded funds and index funds uh meant that a lot of flows were coming in driven by uh the indices and then therefore it was important for India to have a heavier waiting in the various indices that are list overseas so uh it shows a high degree of realism which I think is important Mark in terms of the impact perhaps the government's move when it comes to overseas borrowing uh you know on The Sovereign front as well do you feel that this will lead to a lower cost of capital will lead to lower rates will lead to more foreign flows into India do you actually see that happening yeah that's I think that's a very good thing again uh on the budget the fact that they want to now start offering uh fixed income instruments overseas and I believe that will of course help the government and their expenditures and their budget but also more importantly will put India on the map uh and that of course should lead to low interest rates uh investors overseas are hungry for yield with interest rates in America going down and therefore the timing of this is very good absolutely you know given the Glide path that we've seen around the world just to just to add to that there was uh there there was some talk about the short-term capital gains tax in line with the ltcg and how that may deter additional foreign investors from really getting excited about pumping money into India do you feel that anything on the taxation front would suggest that or in your view uh is India Rich at as uh as a valuation play currently compared to what's happening in the world well when we talk about India we talk about growth I mean if you look at the valuations historically uh currently in the historical perspective they look expensive but if you look at the growth of the economy and the growth of companies then it's pretty cheap U as regards to taxes I don't think uh uh you know we've been through this group before regarding capital gains and the in as long as it's efficient and uh doesn't involve lots of bureaucracy that should not be a big problem I didn't think the government will want to recure foreign investors with a a very big tax which would be care them Mark you know the issuance of sovereign bonds by India that's been a long-standing demand from the foreign investors do you think the fact that a step was taken in this front can be viewed at very positively and what sort of signs are you getting for the bond markets well I think that's a very very uh good move on the part of the government because uh India should be recognized on the international Capital markets and if they issue Sovereign bonds of course that will go a long way towards increasing The credibility of the country in general increasing uh The credibility of the capital markets so I think that's a very very good move also in the budget the merging of the overseas Indian and the regular F investment uh groups I think is also a very good move I think that's realistic and should lead to uh more Investments you know Mark in there was a lot of focus on using monetary measures to really ease liquidity and provide stimulus going forward but do you feel that we will actually see the effect of this on ground and if so how long would you give it because we haven't seen it on the fiscal side and from what I gather uh you know there was consensus among foreign uh investors or Market uh uh participants that they they would have been happy to perhaps see uh some softening on the fiscal side in order to boost growth well that's I would say that's my main concern regarding the budget I think they were a little bit too careful let's put it that way I don't think you know a two or 3% uh uh debt to GDP level is appropriate for India they should be up at five as you know the US is Ping for 5% uh F deficit of a percent of GDP and that's where India should be and India should not be afraid of that because it's a fast growing country and uh infrastructure is needed so you have to really uh get that government spending in the right place of course but not to worry not be worried about the de GDP levels Mark the buz uh you know prior to the budget in the markets was hinging largely on the consumption slow down and that's been evidenced in a way a lot of these stocks as well have been performing in your view given the fact that there was no bang big bang reform on the consumption front for autos and consumers do you think that now is an opportunity to buy or are we likely to see the pro The Slowdown remain prolonged I don't think the slow down remain prolong I think the consum Market will come back uh yes there's been quite a lot of concern about that uh but I believe uh given the growth rate that we're looking at in India and now with the regularization of debt in the banks with the banks being funded more that should be a big problem and of course the fact that the government is putting money into the rural areas to help consumption as well so I'm not that worried about it and we still like consumer oriented stocks but more importantly we like infrastructure related stocks and companies that have the means to supply infrastructure uh materials and and products Mark you know you've you've touched upon infrastructure now a couple of times so I'm I'm intrigued as to your bullishness on that I want to know more uh you know also given the fact that we're still wondering whether or not the private sector will manage to really go out there and U uh you know and be able to execute at the moment since things still continue to be a little tight you know again where do you see that pickup coming in from uh you know we've talked about the consumption side but even on the investment side when and where do you see that pickup well that has to come as a result and again mentioned the budget with public private Partnerships in the infrastructure Arena uh the government can't do this all by themselves both in terms of uh the uh commissioning of this these type of works but also the financing so it's very important that they uh push ahead with the public private Partnerships in every direction whether it be Subways airports uh uh roads I noticed in the budget also a very good move towards uh transport on the water water transport England which is very very important so uh I think there's going to be a tremendous opportunity in that direction and thankfully the budget doesn't mention it but the key will be implementation to move ahead on that front you know there has been intent by the Finance Minister with respect to sorting out the problem within the nbfc space and even for banks that 70,000 CR rupe recapitalization as well as a lot of steps uh for um you know the credit squeeze within the nbfc space has that been enough and what is your view when it comes to how could well the fact that the government uh is going to recapitalize the banks is very good step in the right direction and the fact that the non-bank financial institutions uh will be given more attention and of course there's going to be consolidation as a result of the recent problems in that sector should all go well for the colelection of good uh good terms we ourselves are invested in that sector and we believe that there are some very good firms that will do quite well well given the changes that are taking place in pank so that's an area that we're very interested in you know currently we've got uh we've got a huge question mark around what the FED will probably do next uh waiting for Powell's commentary huge expectations that here we will see the RBI cut rates and possibly more uh aggressively than earlier anticipated in terms of capital and how you see it moving around the world currently Mark I just want to get a sort of a bird's eye picture from you as well since we are speaking with you this afternoon I just want to get a sense of that well uh of course with the FED lowering rates that means that as I mentioned fixed income investors are going to be searching for years so that's why the timing of a bond issues liby Indian government is going to be very timely and very good but going forward I believe that people are going to be moving more and more towards uh energy Market equity ities simply because of the opportunities for growth still remain and the fact that the US market already has been at its high point uh people will look for diversification in talking to clients around the world we find that they are very heavily weighted in US markets and realize that there's a risk without having some International exposure and typically Emerging Markets exposure and of course India stands right at the top of the heat in terms of opportunities for growth and the fact that the budget mentions the need for privatization of State own Enterprises and more Equity going into uh the Indian market is very very good and will encourage more flows into the Indian market how about your take on how the Finance Minister dealt with the agre or rural theme do you think that that sector did not see too much of a Thrust and more was expected on that front and given the fact that we've been Haring on it being a budget for bhat uh that there wasn't too much stress on that front as would have been appreciated uh actually I'm not too worried about that in fact I was kind of happy that they didn't uh do more in that direction and hoping that they realize that at the end of the day if India is going to continue its fast development they have to look at how the rural sector is going to be moving into the urban area in other words the workforce has to move out of the rures into the urban areas that means more productivity and higher employment in Industry um and that's the reason why infrastructure is so important because if you look at the history of any of the countries around the world the growth came in the early periods of their development from infrastructure employment of the rural uh sector into the infrastructure Arena if you look at for example America after World War II there was a tremendous move to employ people in building roads Bridges and all this rest of it and that infrastructure is still in place and went a long way towards increasing productivity of the economy so I'm hoping that's where the movement will be going forward let's just focus on on you know the kind of Market action as well um for a moment uh today of course we're seeing a bit of a sell-off coming in uh I won't probe you too much on such a near-term reaction but going forward given that we're still seeing a Slowdown on the consumption front um we're still waiting for a pickup based on some of these incentives that have been talked about you know do you really see much uh appreciation when it comes to what's happening in the stock markets are you concerned on the downside like what direction do you really see us moving in well I'm not too worried about the downside I think yes there will be Corrections along the way but the upward trajectory is longterm is still in place and I believe that with the emphasis by the budget on the capital markets it should all go well for uh the indan market uh particularly in the medium and small cap Arena uh that's going to be very very important but large caps are also going to benefit uh from the emphasis on a lot more more uh issues by the large companies it's interesting uh she mentioned in the budget that you wanted to see more of these shares being issued uh even among the large state owned Enterprises which is very good Mark what's your take on the earning season uh tomorrow we officially kickart with it Bell weather TCS delivering its numbers and some of these it companies have been seeing fairly decent Revenue growth but on the margin front they have been uh you know facing a bit of a crunch what's the sense that you're getting from the earning season in in particular for it I think there'll be uh some disappointment along the way and that's what the market is telling us you know the market anticipates uh these kinds of announcements and earnings uh developments and I believe that uh there'll probably be some bad news coming out but it won't be Universal and it'll be a one-time event which really affect the longer term development uh I'm thinking that hopefully India can come to terms with the US in terms of trade generally so that uh that that could be good news for Indian development as well Mark what else would you be buying even if we have dips in the market what's looking good other than infrastructure when it comes to India well as you know I've always been interested in the consumer Arena so I don't think that's uh that should be ignored particularly in the small medium cap area uh infrastructures I mentioned and uh very selectively uh the non-bank financial institutions on the consumer front I know you said you're not worried about the Slowdown you see it picking up again um any any description you can give us broadly in terms of whether you're looking at discretionary non discretionary any particular Pockets I'm I'm fishing here well I think uh yeah know the uh the uh consumer disposables are particularly interesting uh because per capital incomes are going up and that that's one of the areas where you're going to see immediate pickup uh so the kinds of things that are the consolidation that's happening uh generally will be very good uh for investors and I believe that that's one area that we looking at very closely Mark thanks so much for your time and patient great chatting with you today and getting a view from you on the budget on of course what's happening with the bond markets and also you know where you see value in India going forward Indian markets thanks so much for joining us