저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 2019년 모디 2.0 예산은 비전은 좋지만 실행이 관건이며, 시장 반응은 공급 증가 우려로 긍정·부정이 섞임. 예산 전반: 5조 달러 경제 목표는 세웠으나 NBFC 위기와 세수 압박 등 현실을 반영해야 함. 아다르 중심 정책 정리 등 아이디어는 우수하나 결국 집행에 달림. 국영기업 전략적 매각과 외화채 발행 등은 의도 단계. 시장 반응: 공개 유통주식 비율을 25%에서 35%로 올린 조치가 예상 밖이었고, MSCI 등 글로벌 기준 충족을 위해 향후 1~2년간 추가 물량이 나와 단기 수급 부담 요인. 장기적으로는 긍정적이라는 입장. 개인 소득세 최고세율 인상(3CR 초과 구간 3~7%)은 직접적 시장 영향은 작다고 봄. 금리·소비: 한국이 아닌 인도 기준으로, 정부가 주권 차입 금리가 세계 최고 수준이라 금리 인하 여지를 봄. 금리 인하는 농촌과 도시 경제 전반을 살릴 핵심 요인으로 평가. 소비 부양은 재정 인센티브보다 신용 비용과 신용 공급 개선(통화 자극)을 통해 간접적으로 수요를 키우려는 방향이라고 해석. 인프라·규제: 전천후 도로 연결로 농촌 인구 거의 전부가 연결될 것으로 보며, 정부의 인프라 의지는 충분하다고 평가. 주택금융사 규제는 RBI로 이관되는 조치가 있으나 NHB의 저리 대출 기능은 유지되어 대출 확대 여지가 있고 파장은 크지 않다고 봄. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 공급 증가 후 투자 기회가 열린다는 낙관적 입장, 단기 수급 부담은 인지.
다듬은 글
Ram Agarwal as well who now joins in with his key takeaways from the budget statement and RAM how are you going to rate this budget do you think it is a vision statement that is sufficient to bring India back to the prosperity cycle much as was being hoped for uh it looks they have taken cognizance of all the all the things which are happening today what is the ground reality uh because the journey they have set the goal of $5 trillion by 2425 so goal is there but when when you start the journey the ground reality has to be taken into account so the current uh nbfc crisis or uh uh or stress on the revenue revenue side of the budget so all those things are there and there are so many ideas from uh in every aspect of it it's quite surprising that in such a short span they have been able to put up a I would say uh brilliant thought process uh uh and it it is very clear that government is thinking and and some of the things like say adhar pan card is completely been uh made redundant and Adar has been given so they are taking steps and there are so many things in in that and I think the biggest thing is that strategic sale of psus second is that uh uh uh foreign borrowings I mean uh Indian bonds being fled in the global markets which is the world is a wash with the liquidity so I think these are all proposals you know how so these are all intentions uh what they will do is all in the execution so I think budet paper is very good and uh uh whether this achieves the objective or not it all depends on the r let's also take a look at this from a market standpoint let's understand if we take a look and we we've seen the reaction on the exchange today probably process it over the weekend but what would you say are the clear hits and misses this time around more misses than hits I think yeah so one of the surprise which was not there in the rumors or in the thought process was that uh 35% minimum float we are living with 25% and suddenly you know the to manage msci or uh Global float requirements they said the minimum requirement is now 25 to 35 so that pushes additional papers in the marketplace so Market was bit surprised with that additional float uh which is going to come in next one or two years so that's one uh I would not call it negative but that's something which increases supply of paper in the marketplace who in the long run it is going to be positive uh one is that second is that personal taxation where uh steep hike is there between 3 to 7% for three above 3 CR kind of income guys but that doesn't directly impact the markets so as far as the market is concerned I saw the only uh I mean negative is the additional supply of paper h Ram you just spoke about raising the threshold of public holding in listed companies from 25 to 35% I don't know how well the market is reading into this so what is your assessment of this kind of a move I think so I mean uh for them uh uh it is a good idea and uh easier access to the lot of companies uh so I would think that uh uh this is also a positive thing particularly for the in investor side if I want to invest uh for next 5 10 years I would like the more paper to be available and at more reasonable prices so once the supply increases that will open the flood gates for uh uh investors to come in all right so what about you know from the point of view of uh the agre side uh RAM are you happy with what's been announced there and also given the stops that have been announced uh in order to try and boost consumption do you see perhaps sentiment picking up on the rural side I think the big thing is that uh uh the interest rate management I mean the monary side is uh uh there is a contrast we are paying the world's highest rate of interest on a sovereign borrowing and world is at literally negative of zero kind of interest rate so that leverage uh at least bu is proposing to use and that will bring down the interest rate and that will also spur rural economy as well as the urban economy and economy as a whole so I I see that as a big move at the center of the entire budget and in just a short while from now as you can see that's the Finance Minister post the budget speech in Parliament reading up for the press conference we will be cutting across live to that to get you tid bits of that conversation but in the meantime R there are you happy with the kind of Provisions that have been made in the agre sector there have been quite a few announcements to boost consumption do you think that that could actually translate into a spurt into the rural economy given that Cent over there hasn't been all that great so far and uh can you also give us a sensus to what your outlook really is on the push to infra and Road connectivity because for infrastructure um you know do you think uh that the thrust has been you know there was a lot uh hinging on this sector the question is do you think that the government has done enough for infrastructure looking at the current resource uh what do you call Base um uh the the uh the stress on Building New Roads and particularly the rural connectivity I think uh almost 100% of the population will be connected uh by the all weather roads which does a lot to the uh uh the village which gets connected so I think uh uh I didn't see any lack of uh uh what do you call seriousness by the government on that aspect and finally how are you assessing the efforts on the liquidity front and the shift of Regulation to hous in finance companies to The Reserve Bank uh that move was being speculated uh that regulatory part of it will go to uh RBI which they pushed it now now the banking part the nhb as a bank to lend to the uh hfc that a concessional rate that is still stays with NB that's my understanding and uh there it could be much more aggressive lending by them so I think that's fine uh I don't think uh uh that has any you know major repercussion so sum it up for us R there on the whole how do you feel the budget's faed in terms of steps to revive consumption that was really another key area that we were focusing on this time around given the kind of slowdown and sluggishness that we've been seeing so how would you assess that so ultimately everything depends on the consumption and there I think uh uh the cost of credit credit flow or one is the cost of credit and credit itself so uh government is trying to address uh avability of credit and the cost of credit both so I think uh indirectly they are trying to boost the Demand only uh but it is not uh it is not by giving a fiscal incent for consumption but it is more by giving a monetary stimulus to the consumption
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