저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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마이클 버리는 연준이 신뢰를 잃었고 인플레이션을 축소 발표하고 있으며 과거 바이마르 독일식 초인플레이션 위험이 있다고 주장한다. 연준 비판: 연준의 2019년 금리 인하 3회, 지역총재 2명(캐플란·로즌그렌)의 주식 거래 논란을 지적하며 연준 신뢰 상실을 주장했다. 인플레이션 논쟁: 코스트코 CFO의 원자재·운송·인건비 상승 발언을 근거로 인플레이션이 일시적이 아니라고 봤다. 연준의 CPI 산정 방식(근원물가, 개별 항목 제외)을 문제 삼았고, 댈러스 연은 절사평균 기준으로는 2021년 7월 약 3%라고 주장했다. 버블 경고: 현재 시장이 역사상 가장 큰 투기 버블이라고 평가했다. 특히 게임스톱과 AMC 같은 밈주식 열풍을 언급했다. 역사적 비교: 바이마르 독일의 1921~1923년 초인플레이션을 예로 들며, 미국의 MMT 성향 재정·통화 정책이 비슷한 위험을 키운다고 경고했다. 개별 종목·자산 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 인플레이션과 버블 붕괴 가능성을 강하게 경고하는 비관적 입장이다.
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the fed is stealing from you michael bury exposes the fed big short investor michael bury slams the fed for its trading scandal warns of inflation using costco and deletes his twitter profile again today we're going to talk all about what michael berry just exposed about the fed and why he thinks the fed is stealing from you urewe finding the big short investor michael bury blasted the federal reserve for its trading scandal underlying the inflation threat using costco and deleted his twitter account yet again this week bond and stock markets depend on a fed stripped of all credibility bury said in a now deleted tweet he cited the central bank's mismanagement of the global financial crisis its decision to cut interest rates three times in 2019 and the revelation this month that two of its regional presidents robert kaplan and eric rosengren traded stocks and other securities last year the scion asset management chief attached a screenshot of kaplan's latest financial disclosure form which showed the official traded millions of dollars worth of tesla chevron johnson and johnson and other stocks in 2020 both kaplan and rosengren announced their resignations this week the latter citing health issues bury who has warned of a huge market bubble and predicted the mother of all crashes is coming in recent months also rang the inflation alarm inflationary mindset is not something you'd want to short he tweeted ask costco costco's finance chief richard gallanty noted the rising cost of goods such as oil coffee and nuts during the big box retailer's earnings call last week he listed a raft of inflationary pressures including higher labor freight and commodity prices he also noted shortages of containers and products such as computer chips greater transportation demand and delays at shipping ports it's a lot of fun right now he quipped galante also warned the increased costs of freight and other items would be permanent and said costco has passed on those higher expenses to customers via price hikes his comments challenge the fed's narrative that the recent spike in inflation is transitory and will fade as the economy grinds back into gear and aligned with bury's expectations bury has deleted his twitter profile a few times this year and offered no explanation for his latest departure the investor is best known for his lucrative bet against the mid-2000s housing bubble which was featured in the book and the movie the big short he also paved the way for the meme stock boom this year by investing in gamestop in 2019.
if you've been following inflation in recent months then you could see it getting stronger just like burry said it would be in his tweets interestingly michael berry calls out the fed's inflation rates in his tweet and calls them a liar you'll see later in this video why he did it and what he meant by it when people talk about inflation they often refer to consumer price index cpi which is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of consumer goods and services for example food beverages transportation you can calculate it by taking price changes for each item in a basket of goods and averaging them divide the cost of the market basket in a year by the cost of the same market basket in a base year to track inflation one has to look at how does that index change over time on this graph you can see inflation in the last 10 years simply put when goods get more expensive it's called inflation if they get cheaper it's called deflation however you can also look at core inflation which excludes food and energy prices why would you want to do that because those groups are often quite volatile and prices go up and down in short times now that you know those two terms you'll be able to better understand what michael bury meant when he calls out the fed's inflation rates michael bury doesn't like the fed's inflation rate metrics recently dr brewery called out the fed on twitter that they've very carefully chosen the figures with which they calculated and displayed inflation all with the purpose of showing inflation close to two percent which is the fed's long-term inflation target what michael berry wants to tell is that the fed is reducing the top 31 percent of categories with higher inflation and the bottom 24 percent of categories with lower inflation when you look at data like that there will be lower inflation of course moreover brewery refers to inflation obtained by calculating and removing the upper 16 percent in lower 16 percent of categories referred to as the dallas fed trimmed mean inflation rate when this way of calculating inflation is taken into account inflation hits almost 3 percent in july 2021 the fed on the other hand uses the categories that best illustrate their monetary policy thus showing inflation measured by these metrics and they have made this clear to the public on the other hand brewery's argument is quite noticeable and clear the question is to what extent such things can be set up i think the future will best show inflation and by closely monitoring both of these inflation rates we'll see who was right michael bury also said that right now we're going through the greatest bubble of all time so is the market in the greatest bubble of all time according to michael big short brewery it certainly is people always ask me what's going on in the markets it's simple he wrote on twitter greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things by two orders of magnitude bury observed earlier in the year that hyperinflation was coming for the u.s and in a manner not all that different from how it happened in the weimer republic weimer germany was hit with a period of rapid inflation from 1921 to 1923 that caused significant political instability and suffering amongst its people a loaf of bread cost around 160 marks at the end of 1922 in weimer by the end of 1923 however the same loaf of bread had a price tag of roughly 200 billion marks the hyperinflation was caused by a massive increase in the money supply when the german government attempted to pay off its world war 1 debts by selling its currency in exchange for foreign ones the treaty of versailles required that germany pay its debts back in either gold or foreign currencies forcing the mass sale of marx and as the mark fell in value germany needed more and more of them to buy foreign currencies as a result the german monetary base increased exponentially effectively undercutting any value it once had the us government is inviting inflation with its modern monetary theory tinged policies brisk debt gdp m2 increases while retail sells pmi stage 5 recovery trillions more stimulus and reopening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket burri warned in february on the topic of weimer he drew comparisons between the former german state and the current economic climate in the u.s prices in germany were steady and both business and the stock market were booming burri said speculation alone while adding nothing to germany's wealth became one of its largest activities the fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market and this comment was made before amc's latest moonshot to a new all-time high
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