저자: JeromePowell · 외국인
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영상은 연준 의장을 풍자한 가상 긴급 기자회견 형식. 팬데믹 대응으로 대규모 유동성을 공급했고 인플레이션이 예상보다 길게 간다고 인정. 자산매입 축소(테이퍼링) 시작을 예고하며 월 1200억→1050억 달러로 줄인다고 함. 2022년 중 공급망 정상화, 재고 과잉, 소비 둔화로 상품·소비재 가격이 하락할 것이라 주장. 임금·임대료는 계속 오를 것으로 봄. 화폐 유통속도 하락(약 22.7%)을 근거로 하이퍼인플레이션 우려를 일축.
다듬은 글
everyone this is jerome powell for an emergency press conference i have to come clean i f'ed up inflation is not transitory yet for once in my life something is larger and longer lasting than expected and look when the pandemic struck we were all scared banks were tightening up lending getting ready to freeze credit lines and stop new lending businesses were laying off employees and cutting ad spending and consumers started cutting spending back as well the economy looked like it had just hit the e-brake so we had to put some grease on the e-brake to keep it moving uh we can't afford a recession because that hurts too many people we don't want to hurt people so the easiest option is just to print more money and that's exactly what we did we printed trillions of dollars potentially over 25 percent of the money in circulation in america and now there's a fear we're going to run up against rampant inflation and i get it i've got bullard hawker boston and mestre up my ass every time we have a meeting about tapering faster and raising rates sooner i need to get them off my back i'm not as hawkish as they are so this week we're likely going to announce the beginning of our taper we expect it to start with a 15 billion dollar taper reducing our monthly bond purchases from 120 billion dollars per month to 105 billion dollars per month this is expected to reduce some of the money printing that's happening because we're going to be spinning the money printer a little bit slower it's going to be moving about 12.5 percent slower but we're still going to be printing about 105 billion dollars per month so don't worry we're still going to be printing like crazy now there have been some accusations that what i'm doing is going to lead to hyperinflation well let's look at the facts first headline inflation is measured in year-over-year terms and in 2020 we experienced a massive reduction in spending we saw prices fall and between march and july prices were depressed very depressed so it makes sense that in march through july 2021 we saw high year-over-year figures we also regularly stated that inflation would also occur as the economy reopens that there would be a burst of spending as individuals reintegrate into the economy after being trapped at home listening to youtubers for months this has led to substantial shortages for products that individuals and companies are looking for or seeking to buy with their newfound wealth thanks to asset valuations at all-time highs we're seeing shortages in chips autos shipping and delivery constraints labor constraints and a market jump in material and input costs but don't worry these are transitory eventually costs and price increases both uh and all of these actually are expected to be results of really just going through the pandemic and while transitory is lasting longer we do expect this transitory to begin its end in 2022 and now there are three reasons we think that inflation will begin to inflict downwards substantially in 2022 first since we measure headline inflation on a year-over-year basis we do expect to see some negative inflation readings by the summer of 2022 and 2023 as we'll be comparing the inflated prices from 2021 to potentially lower prices in 2022 and 23.
we don't expect to see most prices continue to go up year after year after year now we likely won't see headline deflation we likely won't see deflation in all categories especially as rents and wages are likely to continue upward and their movement is likely to continue their pace for the next two to five years we again do not expect rents and wages to relax their growth over the medium term however product costs measured by the consumer price index are likely to plummet in many different categories here's why once supply chains catch up we're likely to see an oversupply of chips used cars products and things that folks have been demanding during this pandemic as we hit an oversupply of manufacturers stocking up on chips or products and input products we expect to see the massive demand that we see now on commodity prices will substantially wane as manufacturers relax their ordering manufacturers right now are double and triple ordering to make sure they have enough just to meet the demand they have manufacturers are soon likely to realize that they have stockpiles of not just commodities and input products like chips or aluminum or steel or lumber but also massive stockpiles of finished products as well as a result not only are manufacturers likely to substantially reduce their demand for commodities reducing commodity prices but we expect prices of products will also fall as manufacturers wholesalers and retailers encourage more spending with lower prices to finally clear the now overstocked shelves they have this is why we expect that prices will decrease substantially for many products and commodities in 2022 this will also be an opportunity for companies to beat record revenues from 2021 which were thought to potentially be impossible to be beaten and that is as companies reduce prices we expect demand to increase even more now we might think that this would lead to more inflation but don't worry we're going to invest our stocks appropriately before any of the movements happen in the market so that way we can print attendees while also printing money but for now we've got to consider the fact shipping backlogs are already beginning to ease in six months we expect these to be almost entirely cleared when shipping backlogs are almost entirely cleared wholesalers retailers manufacturers will no longer have to double or triple order to stockpile they will already have a stockpile and even if they didn't have a stockpile they would not have to pre-order as much once we have shipping delays cleared all of this stockpiling and a reduction of shipping delays are expected to reduce commodity prices substantially again supply for lumber steel silica aluminum are all expected to be adequate in 2022 we then expect finished product costs to plummet as again companies lower prices that means consumers will finally be able to select products based on price and quality again and not just on what's available see today consumers have so little choice they're paying higher prices for speed rather than having the luxury of choice this is leading to the inflationary increase that we're seeing this is exacerbated by the wealth effect that those with retirement accounts stocks and real estate are feeling richer as asset valuations are at all-time highs this is also why we've seen many two-income households become one-income households and more individuals retiring earlier these also being factories or factors rather and keeping the labor market extremely tight all this means is that at some point during 2022 we expect to see a substantial inflection to the downside in many categories of inflation with the exception of rents and wages we hope that this inflection point occurs before the summer of 2022 but i always thought that transitory would come by the end of 2021 and i was wrong we are likely going to have to wait until the middle of 2022 or potentially through the end of 2022 this means that we will have transitory inflation eventually but if we do get to this inflection point in the summer of 2022 i will personally be very happy that way i can get the other board members off my ass and we can finish the taper but delay raising rates otherwise the others will want me to raise rates starting in june the moment we expect to complete our taper now i'd like to respond to fears of hyperinflation shout out jack dorsey first household savings rates are sky high and so are household investing rates this is substantially lowering the velocity of money which basically means we're able to print trillions of dollars literally without creating substantial inflation imagine that we can print 25 of the money supply and if money moves 25 slower we can print 25 of the money supply without having any inflation and that is what we expect in fact that's literally what we're seeing now if the velocity of money went back up to previous levels i'd probably lose my job because we'd be screwed to hyperinflation but i will make it my career's mission to make sure that jack dorsey is wrong and so far he's wrong he's very wrong because take a look at this this right here folks is the velocity of money chart as you can see by where my mouse is the velocity of money has plummeted from 1.37 prior to the pandemic to 1.1 this is a substantial reduction in fact if we measure it from q4 of 2019 at 1.4 1.423 and we divide that by where we sit we have seen a reduction of about 22.7 percent in the velocity of money we printed about 25 percent of the money so we have a teeny little bit of extra inflation and we expect that to remain manifested with increased wages and increased rents but we do expect commodity and consumer prices to fall substantially in 2022 and 2023 we will not stay at five percent forever unless of course this chart goes up in which case i will lose my job but anyway it is possible that we will have to raise rates at least once in 2022 but ironically the stock market appears to be cheering the potential for rate increases which is quite unexpected especially after what i went through in 2018 when donny t almost fired me for raising rates that's because there are still so many inflationary fears in the market and markets see rising rates or raise me raising rates as a good sign that inflation will be prevented by the act of raising rates and i promise you i will make sure that inflation is prevented but for now it is going to be transitory for longer and this is why we now declare that inflation is transitory eventually because as much as i like the money printer to go bur i like stocks and real estate to go burr more after all we need to make sure that everybody can participate in the rocket ship that is the stock market and the housing market and we need to make sure that minorities and low income participants in the market especially amongst our women black and hispanic community have an opportunity to participate in the economic gains available and so far they've been left behind as they've been disproportionately affected by low vaccination rates joblessness and pandemic era restrictions so if you want to help contribute to inflation being transitory eventually make sure to get your fouchy algae subscribe and stop worrying about inflation because rents are going to go up and wages are going to go up but everything else is going to come down eventually thank you for watching this emergency press conference goodbye
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