저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Ackman은 연준이 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 금리를 공격적으로 올려야 하며 첫 회의에서 50bp 인상으로 신뢰를 회복해야 한다고 주장했다. 연준 정책 및 금리 전망: - 금융시장은 CME 페드워치 기준 올해 4차례 인상(3월부터 25bp씩)을 반영 중이며, 골드만삭스·도이체방크도 4회 인상을 예상함 - 제이미 다이먼은 올해 최대 7회 인상 가능성을 언급함 - 2021년 12월 CPI는 전년 대비 7%로 1982년 이후 최대 상승폭이며, 연준은 2000년 이후 한 번에 25bp 초과 인상을 한 적이 없음 시장 거품 경고: - 중앙은행의 자산매입이 자산가격을 왜곡해 안전자산(물가연동 국채 등)이 실질 마이너스 수익률을 보이며, 60/40 포트폴리오의 채권 보험 기능도 약화됨 - 쉴러 CAPE 비율은 38.3으로 닷컴 버블 정점(44.2) 다음으로 높은 수준이며, 미국 시총/GNP 비율도 사상 최고치(2.8)를 기록함 - 러셀 3000 성장주의 60%가 이익을 내지 못하며, 미국 주식옵션 소매거래와 암호화폐 투기도 급증함 유럽·일본·영국 시장: - 유로존·영국·일본 주식은 미국만큼 과대평가되지 않았으나, 채권시장은 미국과 같은 위험 과소평가를 보임 - 영국은 성장기업 부족, 브렉시트 우려, 화석연료 기업 비중 때문에 외국인 투자자에게 외면받는 상태임 리스크 및 촉발 요인: - 미국 주식 거품 붕괴 시 전 세계 시장으로 파급될 것으로 봄 - 가장 유력한 촉발 요인은 정책 전환(긴축)이며, 신종 코로나 변이도 가능성으로 언급됨 - 닷컴 버블 때 미국 주식은 2000~2003년 45% 하락한 사례를 제시함 결론: 인플레이션 압력이 구조적이며 정책 정상화(금리 인상·자산매입 축소)가 거품 붕괴의 가장 큰 촉매가 될 것이라는 경고임. 개별 종목 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
bill ackman how to prepare for market crash the 2022 recession investor william ackman whose views are widely watched on wall street said that the u.s central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy has created a classic bubble and that he thinks the federal reserve will need to tighten rates more quickly to fight inflation bill ackman said about the market crash and what's coming in 2022 billionaire hedge fund manager bill ackman said the federal reserve needs to deliver a big interest rate hike to restore its credibility and shock in awe the market in a series of tweets on january 15th ackman said the federal reserve could work to restore its credibility with an initial 50 bps surprise move to shock in awe the market which would demonstrate its resolve on inflation ackman said the fed was losing the battle against inflation which has risen to its highest in almost 40 years as the economy has reopened and created shortages of raw materials and even available workers ackman said the central bank was behind the curve and added that there would be painful economic consequences for the most vulnerable he questioned whether three or four interest rate rises this year would be enough financial markets reflect an expectation that the federal reserve will raise interest rates four times this year according to cme group's fedwatch tool starting with a 25 basis point increase in march major banks such as goldman sachs and deutsche bank expect four rate hikes this year jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon said that the fed may raise interest rates as much as seven times this year inflation is at a 40-year high with the consumer price index cpi up 7 in december 2021 from the previous year this was the largest 12-month rise since 1982.
the fed has not raised interest rates by more than 25 bps at a time since 2000 the fed slashed its main interest rates the federal funds rate to a record low target range of between 0 and 0.25 in the spring of 2020 during the onset of the coveted pandemic ackman said the fed's larger than expected 50 bps hike could prevent the need for more aggressive action in the future a 50 bp initial move would have the reflexive effect of reducing inflation expectations which would moderate the need for more aggressive and economically painful steps in the future he tweeted fed chairman jerome powell said last week that it would take higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy to rein in consumer inflation and the economy was strong enough to withstand both will 2022 go down in financial history as the year the music stopped after the extraordinary buoyancy in markets in 2021 the risk of a painful downturn is certainly escalating in weighing that risk investors face one overwhelmingly uncomfortable fact central banks continue to rig the markets through their asset purchasing programs with important consequences for private portfolios the expansion of central bank balance sheets started as a response to the great financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 and accelerated when the pandemic struck in march 2020.
this monetary activism perpetuates a looking-glass world where supposedly safe assets such as index-linked government bonds yield a negative income while they may remain safe in the sense that they offer liquidity they're nonetheless toxic because they ensure a guaranteed loss if the investment is held to maturity at the same time most nominal government bonds currently show a negative real yield after adjusting for inflation one implication is that a traditional well-structured diversified portfolio split 60 40 between equities and bonds has long been unhelpful for retail investors because bonds have lost their traditional insurance quality another is that investors have been forced to take on more risk notably in equities while risk across many markets is underpriced in effect the central banks have subverted the market's capacity to establish realistic prices and as i pointed out in ft money a year ago bond investors face reinvestment risk whereby investments providing a good income today cannot be replaced by equally attractive investments when they reach maturity the flood of central bank liquidity has caused valuations to become stretched most notably in the u.s where the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio invented by nobel laureate robert schiller reached 38.3 in autumn last year fast approaching the multiple of 44.2 notched up at the peak of the dot-com boom this is the second highest peak in 150 years says chris watling of longview economics consultancy u.s stock market capitalization as a multiple of gross national product a measure favored by billionaire investor warren buffett hit an all-time record of 2.8 in the second quarter of 2021 compared with a dot-com peak of 1.9 the symptoms of an equity bubble are rife in the u.s witness the spec phenomenon where blank check companies bring private companies to market while circumventing the protections afforded by conventional initial public offerings share prices of money losing businesses are being ramped up notably in the tech sector boston-based fund manager gmo points out that 60 of the growth stocks in the russell 3000 index make no money and this was true even before the covet induced recession meanwhile small retail purchases of u.s equity options have grown explosively in volume and speculation in crypto assets is increasingly frenetic while some of these bubble characteristics such as spax and crypto speculation are now affecting europe equity valuations in the eurozone the uk and japan are not so conspicuously stretched the uk in particular is shunned by many international investors because of a perceived paucity of growth companies worries about brexit induced lower economic growth and a disproportionate number of fossil fuel intensive companies in the indices yet the bond markets in europe and japan are subject to the same underpricing of risk as in the us and the rest of the world's markets will surely fuel the backwash when the u.s equity bubble bursts economists and actuaries tend to equate risk with volatility but for mere mortals the most damaging risk is loss of capital it's worth noting that the 2021 credit suisse global investment returns yearbook records that from the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000 to march 2003 u.s stocks fell 45 uk equity prices halved and german stocks fell by two-thirds what might cause the bond market bubble and the u.s equity market bubble to burst a new and devastating variant of the coronavirus is an obvious possibility but in a market overwhelmingly driven by policy the more predictable catalyst is policy reversal having initially argued that the surge in inflation since the pandemic struck in march last year was transitory central bankers are now edging towards a less sanguine view the fiscal policy boost in the u.s in sekovic shock has been huge in relation to plausible guesses about the size of the output gap which records the amount of slack in the economy this contributes to demand poll inflation meanwhile companies have found that they can pass on cost inflation arising from supply chain shortages relatively easily to customers they are also conceding higher wages in a tight labor market the same factors are at work in the uk in continental europe though the fiscal numbers are on a lesser scale than in the u.s there's a strong likelihood then that the big increase in money supply arising from ultra loose monetary policy will be reflected in higher prices of goods and services in contrast to the period after the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis where monetary expansion simply boosted asset prices in today's more inflationary environment the us federal reserve and other central banks are raining back or tapering their asset purchases which have been an important prop to bond in equity markets for its part the bank of england's monetary policy committee raised its policy rate by 0.15 percentage points to 0.25 percent in december central bankers have long been anxious to return to a level of interest rates closer to historical norms which would give them greater ammunition to restimulate the economy in the event of a new financial crisis or recession that's all for today uh
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